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> Prediction markets don't have any "natural" reason like that for excluding insider trading Corporate employees abusing trust are doing it equivalently whethe
by JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
> Prediction markets don't have any "natural" reason like that for excluding insider trading
Corporate employees abusing trust are doing it equivalently whether they trade securities or place bets. Government employees, similarly, don’t personally own the country’s data.
In a minority of cases, the information is one’s own, e.g. bets on how many times a person says a word. But most of the time, there is a breach of trust.
- bb88 7mo agoIt's not just data, right? Power can be abused as well. That person has power to control the narrative and can make a large bet on the number of times he can say the word. So now it's public servants military power, congressional power, and they look to enrich themselves with making (or lobbying for) decisions which affect the outcome of a bet. You could imagine an army general that lobbies for the bombing of Iran knowing the president has his ear, and then bets on the bombing of Iran by March 2026.
- chromacity 7mo ago> Corporate employees abusing trust are doing it equivalently whether they trade securities or place bets. But the crime the article is talking about isn't "abusing trust", it's insider trading. Insider trading is defined in a specific way. For one, as far as I understand it, it must involve securities.
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago> Insider trading is defined in a specific way. For one, as far as I understand it, it must involve securities I just remembered that Dodd-Frank expanded insider trading to cover e.g. commodities [1]. So it definitely applies outside securities in the U.S. [1] https://www.lw.com/admin/upload/SiteAttachments/Alert%202827.v5.pdf https://www.lw.com/admin/upload/SiteAttachments/Alert%202827...