4 ms·

> “If you commit insider trading on Kalshi, that can and will at some point be a federal crime. It is a federal crime,” Am I misunderstanding? It seems like tw

by lowkey_ 6mo ago

> “If you commit insider trading on Kalshi, that can and will at some point be a federal crime. It is a federal crime,” Am I misunderstanding? It seems like two different statements he always conflates. If it becomes a federal crime at some point, it will become illegal from that point — you can't prosecute people for acts committed before they were crimes. The only way that this could be a federal crime right now is if the government starts prosecuting it under existing laws without any changes. I don't see that as likely.

echelon 6mo ago
IANAL, but my understanding is that they can make it a retroactive crime or clarify existing laws in ways that include prediction markets. Don't assume safety. Edit - was curious: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ex_post_facto_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ex_post_facto_law So maybe not? I'd love a judicial scholar's input.
- mcmcmc 6mo ago
  “Retroactive” crime is as you say, ex post facto, and specifically disallowed by the US Constitution.
- tptacek 6mo ago
  They absolutely cannot make it a retroactive crime. This isn't so much con law as high school civics in the US.
  - GolfPopper 6mo ago
    A couple decades ago I would have agreed with you. But the United States today does not have rule of law, only the pretense of it.
- johnnyo 6mo ago
  No, you cannot retroactively make something a crime as you have found. That way lies madness. If the govt could do that, they could arrest anyone, anytime simply by making whatever they did yesterday retroactively illegal.
- lowkey_ 6mo ago
  IANAL but a proud American haha, and we're very specific on not allowing ex post facto laws per our constitution. It would be a huge avenue for abuse of power by the government against the people. The caveat I added to my initial comment that you also mentioned was that they could try to find a relevant existing law and retrofit it, e.g. general securities laws, and say that this is a securities market and so this has always been illegal — but it's very unlikely and I doubt it would work. Far, far more likely that we pass explicit laws about this.
- chris_money202 6mo ago
  The executive branch executes laws (prosecutes crime) under its own interpretation of the law. It's the supreme court that determines if that interpretation is acceptable or fair. I.e. you could be prosecuted under an executive's interpretation of an existing law when the crime was committed and if the court deems it acceptable you could be found guilty by a jury. (In the USA)
SwellJoe 6mo ago
It is a federal crime, but one could be forgiven for assuming federal crimes committed by this administration will not be prosecuted while this administration is in power.
- hackingonempty 6mo ago
  > one could be forgiven for assuming federal crimes committed by this administration will not be prosecuted while this administration is in power. Nobody in this administration is going to be prosecuted no matter who is in power. https://archive.is/TpLqO https://archive.is/TpLqO
  - idle_zealot 6mo ago
    A reasonable opposition party would declare the pardons invalid. Is that a valid interpretation of pardon power, does that undermine the legitimacy of our laws? Maybe, but not nearly as much as not punishing obvious and proud criminals does. That's the point of the rule of law, remember? It creates legitimacy, and therefore stability.
    - hackingonempty 6mo ago
      > A reasonable opposition party would declare the pardons invalid. Is that a valid interpretation of pardon power, does that undermine the legitimacy of our laws? No, in the USA the pardon power belongs to the President. Only a constitutional amendment could invalidate pardons.
      - ryandrake 6mo ago
        As we are finding out in real time, the President has the power to try to do a million things, legal or illegal, constitutional or unconstitutional, and then whichever ones don't get pushback defacto become actual powers. Throw something at the wall, if it sticks, then it's a Presidential Power. If it doesn't, there's no consequences. Just shrug and throw something else at the wall.
superfrank 6mo ago
I don't think he's saying people who do that right now will be prosecuted. I think he's just saying that it will become illegal so anyone doing it then runs the risk of being prosecuted. > The only way that this could be a federal crime right now is if the government starts prosecuting it under existing laws without any changes. I don't see that as likely. Fully agree, especially since Kalshi just caught one of the editors of MrBeast's videos red handed (he was betting on the "What words will MrBeast say in his next video" market with 100% accuracy) and while Kalshi banned the guy the DOJ has shown 0 interest in doing anything with that.
mcmcmc 6mo ago
It’s a federal crime once someone gets convicted for it. Without any precedent it will be up to the first case to lay out how existing law applies to new phenomena that may or may not be covered, depending on what a judge thinks of the arguments.
knowsuchagency 6mo ago
Schrodinger's felony

by lowkey_ 6mo ago

echelon 6mo ago

IANAL, but my understanding is that they can make it a retroactive crime or clarify existing laws in ways that include prediction markets. Don't assume safety. Edit - was curious: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ex_post_facto_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ex_post_facto_law So maybe not? I'd love a judicial scholar's input.

mcmcmc 6mo ago
“Retroactive” crime is as you say, ex post facto, and specifically disallowed by the US Constitution.
tptacek 6mo ago
They absolutely cannot make it a retroactive crime. This isn't so much con law as high school civics in the US.
- GolfPopper 6mo ago
  A couple decades ago I would have agreed with you. But the United States today does not have rule of law, only the pretense of it.
johnnyo 6mo ago
No, you cannot retroactively make something a crime as you have found. That way lies madness. If the govt could do that, they could arrest anyone, anytime simply by making whatever they did yesterday retroactively illegal.
lowkey_ 6mo ago
IANAL but a proud American haha, and we're very specific on not allowing ex post facto laws per our constitution. It would be a huge avenue for abuse of power by the government against the people. The caveat I added to my initial comment that you also mentioned was that they could try to find a relevant existing law and retrofit it, e.g. general securities laws, and say that this is a securities market and so this has always been illegal — but it's very unlikely and I doubt it would work. Far, far more likely that we pass explicit laws about this.
chris_money202 6mo ago
The executive branch executes laws (prosecutes crime) under its own interpretation of the law. It's the supreme court that determines if that interpretation is acceptable or fair. I.e. you could be prosecuted under an executive's interpretation of an existing law when the crime was committed and if the court deems it acceptable you could be found guilty by a jury. (In the USA)

SwellJoe 6mo ago

It is a federal crime, but one could be forgiven for assuming federal crimes committed by this administration will not be prosecuted while this administration is in power.

hackingonempty 6mo ago
> one could be forgiven for assuming federal crimes committed by this administration will not be prosecuted while this administration is in power. Nobody in this administration is going to be prosecuted no matter who is in power. https://archive.is/TpLqO https://archive.is/TpLqO
- idle_zealot 6mo ago
  A reasonable opposition party would declare the pardons invalid. Is that a valid interpretation of pardon power, does that undermine the legitimacy of our laws? Maybe, but not nearly as much as not punishing obvious and proud criminals does. That's the point of the rule of law, remember? It creates legitimacy, and therefore stability.
  - hackingonempty 6mo ago
    > A reasonable opposition party would declare the pardons invalid. Is that a valid interpretation of pardon power, does that undermine the legitimacy of our laws? No, in the USA the pardon power belongs to the President. Only a constitutional amendment could invalidate pardons.
    - ryandrake 6mo ago
      As we are finding out in real time, the President has the power to try to do a million things, legal or illegal, constitutional or unconstitutional, and then whichever ones don't get pushback defacto become actual powers. Throw something at the wall, if it sticks, then it's a Presidential Power. If it doesn't, there's no consequences. Just shrug and throw something else at the wall.

superfrank 6mo ago

I don't think he's saying people who do that right now will be prosecuted. I think he's just saying that it will become illegal so anyone doing it then runs the risk of being prosecuted. > The only way that this could be a federal crime right now is if the government starts prosecuting it under existing laws without any changes. I don't see that as likely. Fully agree, especially since Kalshi just caught one of the editors of MrBeast's videos red handed (he was betting on the "What words will MrBeast say in his next video" market with 100% accuracy) and while Kalshi banned the guy the DOJ has shown 0 interest in doing anything with that.

mcmcmc 6mo ago

It’s a federal crime once someone gets convicted for it. Without any precedent it will be up to the first case to lay out how existing law applies to new phenomena that may or may not be covered, depending on what a judge thinks of the arguments.

knowsuchagency 6mo ago

Schrodinger's felony