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Prediction markets don’t need to surface private knowledge, they can surface sophisticated interpretations of public knowledge. They are certainly gambling if y
by fontain 6mo ago
Prediction markets don’t need to surface private knowledge, they can surface sophisticated interpretations of public knowledge. They are certainly gambling if you’re an unsophisticated rube (which is most of the users).
- curt15 6mo agoHow does one "interpret" public knowledge to time bets so accurately right before Trump's announcements?
- Karrot_Kream 6mo agoI mean that's why insiders are being investigated right? But sometimes the answer is more difficult than it seems. Is a mid level military officer an insider? If you overheard a conversation on Capitol Hill are you an insider?
- fontain 6mo agoFirst, you’re describing the insider trading that is not permitted. Second, the majority of prediction markets are predicting utterly mundane things like sports. The tiny number of news grabbing markets are not representative.