4 ms·

The looting stage of collapse, people tend to think someone will come and save things but so long as there is more money in decline the leaders will do that ins

The looting stage of collapse, people tend to think someone will come and save things but so long as there is more money in decline the leaders will do that instead.

ericmay 6mo ago
[flagged]
- cjbgkagh 6mo ago
  I know there is a personal responsibility / call to action in there but I think it elides both how politics work and how people work. Politics is run by cynical operatives skilled in mass manipulation and people generally believe what they’re told to believe. Encouraging people to tilt at windmills is one of the ways to undermine effective opposition. Pitting them against each other is another way. I think actual effective opposition is localism / a general devolution of power. It’s all moot anyway because AI is already smart enough to upend the economy / social order. A productivity boom without a consumption boom will kill margins across the board.
  - ericmay 6mo ago
    I’m aligned with your critique, and especially aligned with a focus on local efforts. The more local the better has generally been a good guiding principle for democracies. > Politics is run by cynical operatives skilled in mass manipulation and people generally believe what they’re told to believe. I agree with you in the effect - people for whatever reason just believe what they’re told to believe, but I disagree with the hint of “can’t do anything about it” that underlies your writing here. If that’s not your intent - my mistake.
    - cjbgkagh 6mo ago
      A big part of undermining opposition is to encourage your opposition to operate in ways that are ineffective. Regardless of who won the 2024 we would have gotten the war with Iran, the US has a long history of electing peace candidates and getting war. We live in a managed democracy, part of that management is ensuring the opposition are grifters, Trump was not viable for 2024 until democrats came after him legally, I am confident the decision makers there knew that going after him would make him more popular. They would rather have run against Trump a third time than against a likely more effective candidate like Ron DeSantos. There are things people can do, I left the US for a small country where politics are so boring I don’t even know who the president is and don’t care to.
      - ericmay 6mo ago
        > Regardless of who won the 2024 we would have gotten the war with Iran That’s because of the geopolitical and geostrategic necessity. Can’t have another North Korea and definitely can’t have one sitting on top of 20% of the world’s oil supply. Though I don’t disagree with your broader point regarding so-called “peace presidents”. I find your perspective about managed democracy to be a bit disheartening, but if you do believe that it’s a good argument against structures such as the EU, who is probably the best example of what you’re talking about. > There are things people can do, I left the US for a small country where politics are so boring I don’t even know who the president is and don’t care to. Most countries someone would want to live in aren’t open to immigration unless you’re pretty well off or specialized. I’m glad it worked out for you. We are stuck in the US (and Ohio though day to day is just fine) because friends and family but it would be a breath of fresh air to not have to care. Also most countries aren’t relevant on the global stage and so there isn’t really much for them to decide, they’re for the most part passive recipients of whatever America decides and to some growing extent China or perhaps the EU. Russia as an example and starting wars sort of an outlier.
        cjbgkagh 6mo ago
        > That’s because of the geopolitical and geostrategic necessity. Says who, clearly the US is trying to have that say but failing at it. > Can’t have another North Korea and definitely can’t have one sitting on top of 20% of the world’s oil supply. Turns out you can. I have known our missile defense strategy wouldn’t last into the cheap missile / drone age for over 22 years. Before high tech I was military adjacent. The real reason the US can’t afford to lose in Iran is what that would say about Taiwan and would mean for its position as world hegemony. My main fear was that the US would start a conflict with China believing it could win and having it lose. Ironically Trumps bungling may have saved us from an even worse fate.
        ericmay 6mo ago
        > Says who, clearly the US is trying to have that say but failing at it. In what way has the US failed? People keep saying the US failed but I’m still confused as to what failure has occurred. > Turns out you can. Well the rest of the world could let it happen, and let other countries control maritime shipping lanes and exact tolls, but I think your statement is actually objectively false given the US bombed Iran and stopped whatever nuclear program they have, even if that turns out to be sort of temporary. > I have known our missile defense strategy wouldn’t last into the cheap missile / drone age for over 22 years. Before high tech The Pentagon knows this too, but you fight a war with the weapons you have while you work on new ones. > I was military adjacent. The real reason the US can’t afford to lose in Iran is what that would say about Taiwan and would mean for its position as world hegemony. My main fear was that the US would start a conflict with China believing it could win and having it lose. I was in the army on active duty including deploying to Iraq. The US isn’t/wasn’t going to start a war with China. Doesn’t make any sense. So no worries there. I think you’ve actually got it backwards. The worry was that China would start a war to seize Taiwan and, frankly, Putin saved us all by failing so hard at Ukraine. The US easily bypassing or destroying any Chinese and Russian air defense assets in countries like Venezuela or Iran has given the Chinese pause too. China has immense manufacturing capability. Probably #1 in the world. But their weakness is they have not fought a serious war or even a minor war in quite some time. The kinks you’re talking about, lessons learned, &c. Are things that the US has learned or is learning more about via conflicts in Ukraine and Iran and elsewhere. China has trained and tested but has not demonstrated any operational effectiveness when it comes to combined arms, and their equipment on paper is impressive but has yet to see meaningful action. Of course the Chinese know this too, but “how will the PLA perform” is a serious concern for the Commies.
- wredcoll 6mo ago
  > dumb ass gas station beaver and a bunch of MAGA folks and furries How on earth are those three things supposed to be equivalent? One is a gas station chain with an animal as part of its logo, which is uh, a normal thing? Are we against gas stations in general or animals used for branding or what? Another is a group of people who like to dress up and/or pretend to be animals with their friends, the worst thing you can say about that is it's unusual. The third thing is a bunch of death cultists who are scared of everything and willing to worship a dictator. This is some hardcore false equivalence. > because we started hating ourselves and pitted one another against one another, whether that’s by class, race, or gender started? Were you raised in some kind of cave that prevented access to recorded human history? We've been hating each other for all sorts of reasons for quite longer than we have written records. And it's funny, this kind of argument is usually made by people who are mad that injustices are being pointed out.
  - cindyllm 6mo ago
    [dead]
  - ericmay 6mo ago
    > This is some hardcore false equivalence. Well I didn’t say they were equally stupid, I just said all of those cultural trends were stupid. People can do what they want, but if you’re going to have a conversation about the collapse of a country, well people who get excited about a gas station and drive an hour away to fill up on gas - yep it’s just a gas station - are part of the reason for that decline. > tarted? Were you raised in some kind of cave that prevented access to recorded human history? I don’t think Americans have hated each other or been this divided in quite some time. I don’t even think Americans hated each this much during the Civil War. You’re missing the context of the conversation here. Of course people have always had conflict, but the nature and intensity of that conflict can vary.
    - wredcoll 6mo ago
      People literally started a war and fought it for 4 years, killing more americans than basically anything else we could categorize as a single event, entirely to preserve their right to hold other americans as slaves, and you think people are hating more now? It seems a tad unlikely. Equating some hypothetical people enjoying a buccees with the collapse of a country is, and there's really no other way to say this, profoundly ignorant. Why countries collapse, hell, what collapse even means, could fill several dozen books, but "rule of law" is a real big part of what makes a functioning country. It's the difference between something like an actual state and a feudal fiefdom.
- zzrrt 6mo ago
  > we started hating ourselves and pitted one another against one another, whether that’s by class, race, or gender > stop some dumb ass gas station beaver and a bunch of MAGA folks and furries I'm not all that supportive of Buc-ees or furries and definitely not of MAGA, but good job continuing the hate and pitting against each other. Do you think hate is okay if it's not based on class, race, or gender?
  - ericmay 6mo ago
    I don’t hate anyone really, I’m suggesting those activities are stupid and unserious. If you’re going to talk about the collapse of a country, the culture of that country is going to be key.
throw0101a 6mo ago
> The looting stage of collapse […] Remember folks: pillage before you burn.

The looting stage of collapse, people tend to think someone will come and save things but so long as there is more money in decline the leaders will do that instead.

ericmay 6mo ago

[flagged]

cjbgkagh 6mo ago
I know there is a personal responsibility / call to action in there but I think it elides both how politics work and how people work. Politics is run by cynical operatives skilled in mass manipulation and people generally believe what they’re told to believe. Encouraging people to tilt at windmills is one of the ways to undermine effective opposition. Pitting them against each other is another way. I think actual effective opposition is localism / a general devolution of power. It’s all moot anyway because AI is already smart enough to upend the economy / social order. A productivity boom without a consumption boom will kill margins across the board.
- ericmay 6mo ago
  I’m aligned with your critique, and especially aligned with a focus on local efforts. The more local the better has generally been a good guiding principle for democracies. > Politics is run by cynical operatives skilled in mass manipulation and people generally believe what they’re told to believe. I agree with you in the effect - people for whatever reason just believe what they’re told to believe, but I disagree with the hint of “can’t do anything about it” that underlies your writing here. If that’s not your intent - my mistake.
  - cjbgkagh 6mo ago
    A big part of undermining opposition is to encourage your opposition to operate in ways that are ineffective. Regardless of who won the 2024 we would have gotten the war with Iran, the US has a long history of electing peace candidates and getting war. We live in a managed democracy, part of that management is ensuring the opposition are grifters, Trump was not viable for 2024 until democrats came after him legally, I am confident the decision makers there knew that going after him would make him more popular. They would rather have run against Trump a third time than against a likely more effective candidate like Ron DeSantos. There are things people can do, I left the US for a small country where politics are so boring I don’t even know who the president is and don’t care to.
    - ericmay 6mo ago
      > Regardless of who won the 2024 we would have gotten the war with Iran That’s because of the geopolitical and geostrategic necessity. Can’t have another North Korea and definitely can’t have one sitting on top of 20% of the world’s oil supply. Though I don’t disagree with your broader point regarding so-called “peace presidents”. I find your perspective about managed democracy to be a bit disheartening, but if you do believe that it’s a good argument against structures such as the EU, who is probably the best example of what you’re talking about. > There are things people can do, I left the US for a small country where politics are so boring I don’t even know who the president is and don’t care to. Most countries someone would want to live in aren’t open to immigration unless you’re pretty well off or specialized. I’m glad it worked out for you. We are stuck in the US (and Ohio though day to day is just fine) because friends and family but it would be a breath of fresh air to not have to care. Also most countries aren’t relevant on the global stage and so there isn’t really much for them to decide, they’re for the most part passive recipients of whatever America decides and to some growing extent China or perhaps the EU. Russia as an example and starting wars sort of an outlier.
      - cjbgkagh 6mo ago
        > That’s because of the geopolitical and geostrategic necessity. Says who, clearly the US is trying to have that say but failing at it. > Can’t have another North Korea and definitely can’t have one sitting on top of 20% of the world’s oil supply. Turns out you can. I have known our missile defense strategy wouldn’t last into the cheap missile / drone age for over 22 years. Before high tech I was military adjacent. The real reason the US can’t afford to lose in Iran is what that would say about Taiwan and would mean for its position as world hegemony. My main fear was that the US would start a conflict with China believing it could win and having it lose. Ironically Trumps bungling may have saved us from an even worse fate.
        ericmay 6mo ago
        > Says who, clearly the US is trying to have that say but failing at it. In what way has the US failed? People keep saying the US failed but I’m still confused as to what failure has occurred. > Turns out you can. Well the rest of the world could let it happen, and let other countries control maritime shipping lanes and exact tolls, but I think your statement is actually objectively false given the US bombed Iran and stopped whatever nuclear program they have, even if that turns out to be sort of temporary. > I have known our missile defense strategy wouldn’t last into the cheap missile / drone age for over 22 years. Before high tech The Pentagon knows this too, but you fight a war with the weapons you have while you work on new ones. > I was military adjacent. The real reason the US can’t afford to lose in Iran is what that would say about Taiwan and would mean for its position as world hegemony. My main fear was that the US would start a conflict with China believing it could win and having it lose. I was in the army on active duty including deploying to Iraq. The US isn’t/wasn’t going to start a war with China. Doesn’t make any sense. So no worries there. I think you’ve actually got it backwards. The worry was that China would start a war to seize Taiwan and, frankly, Putin saved us all by failing so hard at Ukraine. The US easily bypassing or destroying any Chinese and Russian air defense assets in countries like Venezuela or Iran has given the Chinese pause too. China has immense manufacturing capability. Probably #1 in the world. But their weakness is they have not fought a serious war or even a minor war in quite some time. The kinks you’re talking about, lessons learned, &c. Are things that the US has learned or is learning more about via conflicts in Ukraine and Iran and elsewhere. China has trained and tested but has not demonstrated any operational effectiveness when it comes to combined arms, and their equipment on paper is impressive but has yet to see meaningful action. Of course the Chinese know this too, but “how will the PLA perform” is a serious concern for the Commies.
wredcoll 6mo ago
> dumb ass gas station beaver and a bunch of MAGA folks and furries How on earth are those three things supposed to be equivalent? One is a gas station chain with an animal as part of its logo, which is uh, a normal thing? Are we against gas stations in general or animals used for branding or what? Another is a group of people who like to dress up and/or pretend to be animals with their friends, the worst thing you can say about that is it's unusual. The third thing is a bunch of death cultists who are scared of everything and willing to worship a dictator. This is some hardcore false equivalence. > because we started hating ourselves and pitted one another against one another, whether that’s by class, race, or gender started? Were you raised in some kind of cave that prevented access to recorded human history? We've been hating each other for all sorts of reasons for quite longer than we have written records. And it's funny, this kind of argument is usually made by people who are mad that injustices are being pointed out.
- cindyllm 6mo ago
  [dead]
- ericmay 6mo ago
  > This is some hardcore false equivalence. Well I didn’t say they were equally stupid, I just said all of those cultural trends were stupid. People can do what they want, but if you’re going to have a conversation about the collapse of a country, well people who get excited about a gas station and drive an hour away to fill up on gas - yep it’s just a gas station - are part of the reason for that decline. > tarted? Were you raised in some kind of cave that prevented access to recorded human history? I don’t think Americans have hated each other or been this divided in quite some time. I don’t even think Americans hated each this much during the Civil War. You’re missing the context of the conversation here. Of course people have always had conflict, but the nature and intensity of that conflict can vary.
  - wredcoll 6mo ago
    People literally started a war and fought it for 4 years, killing more americans than basically anything else we could categorize as a single event, entirely to preserve their right to hold other americans as slaves, and you think people are hating more now? It seems a tad unlikely. Equating some hypothetical people enjoying a buccees with the collapse of a country is, and there's really no other way to say this, profoundly ignorant. Why countries collapse, hell, what collapse even means, could fill several dozen books, but "rule of law" is a real big part of what makes a functioning country. It's the difference between something like an actual state and a feudal fiefdom.
zzrrt 6mo ago
> we started hating ourselves and pitted one another against one another, whether that’s by class, race, or gender > stop some dumb ass gas station beaver and a bunch of MAGA folks and furries I'm not all that supportive of Buc-ees or furries and definitely not of MAGA, but good job continuing the hate and pitting against each other. Do you think hate is okay if it's not based on class, race, or gender?
- ericmay 6mo ago
  I don’t hate anyone really, I’m suggesting those activities are stupid and unserious. If you’re going to talk about the collapse of a country, the culture of that country is going to be key.

throw0101a 6mo ago

> The looting stage of collapse […] Remember folks: pillage before you burn.