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The math here isn't what you assume it is. It isn't "most markets resolve to no"; it's "markets consistently value 'yes' too highly", and there is some evidence
by lxgr 7mo ago
The math here isn't what you assume it is. It isn't "most markets resolve to no"; it's "markets consistently value 'yes' too highly", and there is some evidence for the latter.
- fooker 7mo agoGo on, give it a try for a few days. My point is equally valid for "markets consistently value 'yes' too highly". The occasional 'no' will wipe you out on average.
- lxgr 7mo agoI have no idea if the bias is strong enough to profitably trade on it (or whether it even exists). But your statement seems stronger, i.e. that such a strategy is somehow fundamentally and inherently impossible, so I think it's on you to explain why that is supposedly the case. For example, assuming a hypothetical consistent "yes" bias of 10%, would you still say it's impossible? Why? Basically, are you saying it's impossible because of the actual observed "yes" bias being too weak or for some other reason?