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How can the AI be lacking in results and also at the same time responsible for layoffs and slowing of hiring? Wouldn't it be one or the other?

deleted 6mo ago
[deleted]
pesus 6mo ago
Executives don't need actual results or data to lay people off.
cosmic_cheese 6mo ago
It can be both if for the majority of layoffs, AI is just a scapegoat to act as cover for cuts made for financial reasons or offshoring and not the actual cause.
- JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
  But then you’d expect the trend to self correct in the long run. AI actually does seem to replacing customer-service and CS jobs effectively.
  - cosmic_cheese 6mo ago
    From what I've seen many efforts to replace roles such as customer service with AI are being rolled back or downscaled due to intolerably high error rates and general incapability. While these segments won't come out unscathed I don't think the actual impact will end up being as severe as feared.
    - JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
      I believe that too. Broadly, I’m agreeing with the parent comment—AI can’t be causing long-run layoffs and be worthless.
      - HarHarVeryFunny 6mo ago
        You're apparently assuming that AI related layoffs are rational, based on those making the decisions having good information about what their own organizations are achieving with AI. I think this is far from the truth. In many companies AI has become a religion, not a new technology to be evaluated and judged. Employees are told to use AI, and report how much they are using, and all understand the consequences of giving the wrong answer. The CEO hears the tales of rampant AI use and productivity that he is demanding to hear, then pats himself on the back and initiates another layoff. Meanwhile in the trenches little if anything has actually changed.
        JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
        > assuming that AI related layoffs are rational Nope. I’m saying if firms lay off on the assumption of AI gains that never come, they’ll be beaten by firms who don’t.
        HarHarVeryFunny 6mo ago
        OK, but your post reads as if you think that AI being the cause of layoffs can't be true if AI is "worthless" (less capable than they are assuming), which is false. CEOs are laying off because of AI because they think it will save them money, but are doing so based on misinformation, largely due their own insistence that everyone uses AI, and report how much they are using - they are just hearing what they asked to hear (just like Mao hearing about impossible levels of rice production during the "Great Leap Forward"). I'm not making this up - I've seen it first hand. You can see the proof of this - companies laying of because of what they mistakenly believe AI can do - in companies like Salesforce, forced to do an embarassing U-turn and hire people back when the reality sets in. At least Salesforce were quick to correct - most big companies are not so nimble or ready to admit their own mistakes. We seem to have reached mania-like levels of rice-production reporting, with companies like Meta now taking AI token usage as a proxy for productivity and/or a measure of something positive, and apparently having a huge leaderboard displaying who is using the most (i.e. spending the most money!). The only guaranteed outcome of this is that they will indeed see massive use of tokens, and a massive AI bill, and then in a year or so will likely be left scratching their heads wondering why nothing much appears to have changed.
  - fwip 6mo ago
    Might be true, but unfortunately, we need to pay for rent/mortgage/groceries in the short run.
californical 6mo ago
No, layoffs happen due to leadership’s expectations. It’s never been about reality, layoffs and both massive hiring to ramp teams are based on vibes. The lack of results is felt by those using it to assist with their work daily.
- bigbuppo 6mo ago
  And specifically, their expectations as to what will positively impact the stock price. Shareholder value this quarter is more important than keeping the company afloat next quarter.
samrus 6mo ago
can happen at the same time when businesses speculatively fire workers to replace with AI. The lack of results might bite them in the ass and the bubble might pop. Or not, but they are going long on their AI position
parliament32 6mo ago
AI hype -> layoffs -> AI underperforms -> ???? Hilariously, it's the exact same playbook as the big third-world-country-outsourcing hype from a few years ago.
incompatible 6mo ago
Organisations happy to reduce costs, perhaps with greater output but with lower quality?
V__ 6mo ago
You replace half of a team with AI. Salary cost go immediately down, but team output can keep up for some time. You don't see the technical debt, the security issues and the prompt injection which will result in wrong invoices being sent. In six months suddenly there will be a big problem, but this quarter a lot of shareholders are happy about the cost-cutting. You may even be promoted by the time shit hits the fan, and it won't even be your problem anymore. On the other hand there probably also is a general correction in the market after the covid hiring spree.
- xg15 6mo ago
  Almost sounds like the "walking ghost phase" during radiation poisoning... https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/1975oj/whats_happening_during_the_walking_ghost_phase_of/ https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/1975oj/whats_ha...
  - sph 6mo ago
    Fantastic analogy. I dare say it applies to our current economy as well.
  - V__ 6mo ago
    This is such a good metaphor.
janalsncm 6mo ago
When Block laid off 40% of their staff Jack Dorsey said it was because of AI. Whether or not you believe him is a different question.
- tayo42 6mo ago
  He went all in on block chain, so it would be consistent with previous hyped tech. In this case I would believe him.
plemer 6mo ago
Not if the actual vs stated reasons for the layoffs have nothing to do with AI.
throwyawayyyy 6mo ago
AI could be a huge net benefit, and justify large layoffs. AI could be a huge short-term benefit, justify layoffs now, so long as you (the exec doing the laying off) don't have to worry about the long term AI could have middling net benefit, but be a great excuse to justify layoffs now. In this scenario, the people laid off and those that remain bear the cost (one, losing their jobs; those that remain, burning out with the extra workload) etc etc, many scenarios to consider...
sumeno 6mo ago
You assume CEOs are completely rational actors. The reality is most of them are so divorced from reality that they think they are infallible and AI will pick up the slack because they want it to be true.
notatoad 6mo ago
and surely, all of those companies are being entirely truthful about the reason for the layoffs.

deleted 6mo ago

[deleted]

pesus 6mo ago

Executives don't need actual results or data to lay people off.

cosmic_cheese 6mo ago

It can be both if for the majority of layoffs, AI is just a scapegoat to act as cover for cuts made for financial reasons or offshoring and not the actual cause.

JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
But then you’d expect the trend to self correct in the long run. AI actually does seem to replacing customer-service and CS jobs effectively.
- cosmic_cheese 6mo ago
  From what I've seen many efforts to replace roles such as customer service with AI are being rolled back or downscaled due to intolerably high error rates and general incapability. While these segments won't come out unscathed I don't think the actual impact will end up being as severe as feared.
  - JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
    I believe that too. Broadly, I’m agreeing with the parent comment—AI can’t be causing long-run layoffs and be worthless.
    - HarHarVeryFunny 6mo ago
      You're apparently assuming that AI related layoffs are rational, based on those making the decisions having good information about what their own organizations are achieving with AI. I think this is far from the truth. In many companies AI has become a religion, not a new technology to be evaluated and judged. Employees are told to use AI, and report how much they are using, and all understand the consequences of giving the wrong answer. The CEO hears the tales of rampant AI use and productivity that he is demanding to hear, then pats himself on the back and initiates another layoff. Meanwhile in the trenches little if anything has actually changed.
      - JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
        > assuming that AI related layoffs are rational Nope. I’m saying if firms lay off on the assumption of AI gains that never come, they’ll be beaten by firms who don’t.
        HarHarVeryFunny 6mo ago
        OK, but your post reads as if you think that AI being the cause of layoffs can't be true if AI is "worthless" (less capable than they are assuming), which is false. CEOs are laying off because of AI because they think it will save them money, but are doing so based on misinformation, largely due their own insistence that everyone uses AI, and report how much they are using - they are just hearing what they asked to hear (just like Mao hearing about impossible levels of rice production during the "Great Leap Forward"). I'm not making this up - I've seen it first hand. You can see the proof of this - companies laying of because of what they mistakenly believe AI can do - in companies like Salesforce, forced to do an embarassing U-turn and hire people back when the reality sets in. At least Salesforce were quick to correct - most big companies are not so nimble or ready to admit their own mistakes. We seem to have reached mania-like levels of rice-production reporting, with companies like Meta now taking AI token usage as a proxy for productivity and/or a measure of something positive, and apparently having a huge leaderboard displaying who is using the most (i.e. spending the most money!). The only guaranteed outcome of this is that they will indeed see massive use of tokens, and a massive AI bill, and then in a year or so will likely be left scratching their heads wondering why nothing much appears to have changed.
- fwip 6mo ago
  Might be true, but unfortunately, we need to pay for rent/mortgage/groceries in the short run.

californical 6mo ago

No, layoffs happen due to leadership’s expectations. It’s never been about reality, layoffs and both massive hiring to ramp teams are based on vibes. The lack of results is felt by those using it to assist with their work daily.

bigbuppo 6mo ago
And specifically, their expectations as to what will positively impact the stock price. Shareholder value this quarter is more important than keeping the company afloat next quarter.

samrus 6mo ago

can happen at the same time when businesses speculatively fire workers to replace with AI. The lack of results might bite them in the ass and the bubble might pop. Or not, but they are going long on their AI position

parliament32 6mo ago

AI hype -> layoffs -> AI underperforms -> ???? Hilariously, it's the exact same playbook as the big third-world-country-outsourcing hype from a few years ago.

incompatible 6mo ago

Organisations happy to reduce costs, perhaps with greater output but with lower quality?

V__ 6mo ago

You replace half of a team with AI. Salary cost go immediately down, but team output can keep up for some time. You don't see the technical debt, the security issues and the prompt injection which will result in wrong invoices being sent. In six months suddenly there will be a big problem, but this quarter a lot of shareholders are happy about the cost-cutting. You may even be promoted by the time shit hits the fan, and it won't even be your problem anymore. On the other hand there probably also is a general correction in the market after the covid hiring spree.

xg15 6mo ago
Almost sounds like the "walking ghost phase" during radiation poisoning... https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/1975oj/whats_happening_during_the_walking_ghost_phase_of/ https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/1975oj/whats_ha...
- sph 6mo ago
  Fantastic analogy. I dare say it applies to our current economy as well.
- V__ 6mo ago
  This is such a good metaphor.

janalsncm 6mo ago

When Block laid off 40% of their staff Jack Dorsey said it was because of AI. Whether or not you believe him is a different question.

tayo42 6mo ago
He went all in on block chain, so it would be consistent with previous hyped tech. In this case I would believe him.

plemer 6mo ago

Not if the actual vs stated reasons for the layoffs have nothing to do with AI.

throwyawayyyy 6mo ago

AI could be a huge net benefit, and justify large layoffs. AI could be a huge short-term benefit, justify layoffs now, so long as you (the exec doing the laying off) don't have to worry about the long term AI could have middling net benefit, but be a great excuse to justify layoffs now. In this scenario, the people laid off and those that remain bear the cost (one, losing their jobs; those that remain, burning out with the extra workload) etc etc, many scenarios to consider...

sumeno 6mo ago

You assume CEOs are completely rational actors. The reality is most of them are so divorced from reality that they think they are infallible and AI will pick up the slack because they want it to be true.

notatoad 6mo ago

and surely, all of those companies are being entirely truthful about the reason for the layoffs.