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What happens if you flood the market with a bunch of implausible bets like "sun won't rise tomorrow"? Sure, you might try to filter that out with some sort of "
by gruez 7mo ago
What happens if you flood the market with a bunch of implausible bets like "sun won't rise tomorrow"? Sure, you might try to filter that out with some sort of "seasoning" period (ie. don't buy new markets), but then that means more time for arbitrageurs to correctly price the market, depriving you of any price advantage you might have had.
- baq 7mo agojane street is always hiring!
- Bratmon 7mo ago> What happens if you flood the market with a bunch of implausible bets like "sun won't rise tomorrow"? Who does "you" refer to in this sentence? Polymarket itself? I'm pretty sure if Polymarket itself decides it wants to screw you, you're gonna lose no natter what your strategy is.
- fer 7mo agoThere are quite a few of those, my favourite: https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before-2027 https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before... If you put all your money on no, you get 4% if you win, and if Jesus comes back and you lose, money won't matter.
- gruez 7mo ago>you get 4% if you win, This locks up your money in the meantime, right? If so, considering the fed funds rate is 3.64% (and you can probably get higher rates on stablecoins), a huge chunk of those "winnings" is going to be eaten up by the opportunity cost of the money.
- Lockal 7mo agoYou forget that Polymarket is just a casino, and the house always wins. For example, recent events show that any bet can be selectively disputed by arbitrary reason ("we found insiders", "we found this immoral/illegal", etc.). And for perpetual events - there is not a single week without a hack (https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/ https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/)