3 ms·

any stats on your returns so far?

• pawelduda 6mo ago
  Turkey reported high winrate until Thanksgiving
  • vessenes 6mo ago
    Falling victim to the classic fallacy. So sad
    • syncsynchalt 6mo ago
      We call it a "black turkey event", nobody saw it coming.
• m-hodges 6mo ago
  Not my project, but author said on X: > Why predict the future when 73.4% of all Polymarkets resolve as No? https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043398710013595857 https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043398710013595857
  • gruez 6mo ago
    That logic doesn't work because not every bet have even payouts. If there's a market for whether a dice rolls 1 or not, the odds might resolve to "no" 83% of the time, but if it only pays you $1.1 per dollar wagered on "no", you're still losing money.
    • deleted 6mo ago
      [deleted]
  • deleted 6mo ago
    [deleted]