3 ms·

How do you know Gemini is losing money on inference?

nl 7mo ago
> How do you know Gemini is losing money on inference? It's not. People make this claim with zero evidence. But Google made around $20B profit on Google search in 2025 Q4, and that includes AI search.
- grtteee 7mo ago
  Until the day comes that they properly break out the financials you, nor the other poster have any idea as to what the numbers are.
  - dangus 7mo ago
    And if AI was making lots of money they’d break it out and proudly display it in their financials on its own.
    - nl 7mo ago
      They can't break it out because it is embedded in other services. But to quote: > Overall, we’re seeing our AI investments and infrastructure drive revenue and growth across the board. and > Revenue from AI solutions built by our partners increased nearly 300% year-over-year, and commitments from our top 15 software partners grew more than 16X year-over-year. https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/#full-stack-approach-ai https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/a...
      - grtteee 7mo ago
        No they choose not to break it out because under accounting principles you can get away with it. Lmao don’t talk about subjects you clearly are not an expert in. The only real metric one can use to gauge new investment is the marginal ROIC. Which is very noisy to say the least.
        nl 7mo ago
        Ok.. So as I said: Google made around $20B in profit on 2025 Q4 which includes AI search. Both revenue and profit grew with the introduction of AI search. So where exactly is this big loss you speak so confidently of?
        grtteee 7mo ago
        I did not comment on whether it was a loss or profit position. “Until the day comes that they properly break out the financials you, nor the other poster have any idea as to what the numbers are.” Until one of the private firms goes public nobody has a clean view of what the financials of a model business look like.
      - dangus 7mo ago
        Revenue != Profit Operating margin has been declining since approximately 3/2025 at Alphabet. You think Google has no ability to tell us whether a traditional search makes more revenue than an AI Summary search? I think we would be naive to assume they don't know that.
    - grtteee 7mo ago
      Yep lol. Every investor and portfolio manager in the world is begging for a signal to say the returns really are coming on all this capex spend.
OccamsMirror 7mo ago
They're talking about free inference like Android and Google Home devices. No one is paying subscription fees for these and they're running their inference in the cloud. Apple Intelligence, for the most part, is running on the device.
- knowaveragejoe 7mo ago
  Isn't some of Gemini's functionality on Android on-device?
  - nl 7mo ago
    Yes it is
dangus 7mo ago
Is there any evidence of any company making money in inference?

nl 7mo ago

> How do you know Gemini is losing money on inference? It's not. People make this claim with zero evidence. But Google made around $20B profit on Google search in 2025 Q4, and that includes AI search.

grtteee 7mo ago
Until the day comes that they properly break out the financials you, nor the other poster have any idea as to what the numbers are.
- dangus 7mo ago
  And if AI was making lots of money they’d break it out and proudly display it in their financials on its own.
  - nl 7mo ago
    They can't break it out because it is embedded in other services. But to quote: > Overall, we’re seeing our AI investments and infrastructure drive revenue and growth across the board. and > Revenue from AI solutions built by our partners increased nearly 300% year-over-year, and commitments from our top 15 software partners grew more than 16X year-over-year. https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/#full-stack-approach-ai https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/a...
    - grtteee 7mo ago
      No they choose not to break it out because under accounting principles you can get away with it. Lmao don’t talk about subjects you clearly are not an expert in. The only real metric one can use to gauge new investment is the marginal ROIC. Which is very noisy to say the least.
      - nl 7mo ago
        Ok.. So as I said: Google made around $20B in profit on 2025 Q4 which includes AI search. Both revenue and profit grew with the introduction of AI search. So where exactly is this big loss you speak so confidently of?
        grtteee 7mo ago
        I did not comment on whether it was a loss or profit position. “Until the day comes that they properly break out the financials you, nor the other poster have any idea as to what the numbers are.” Until one of the private firms goes public nobody has a clean view of what the financials of a model business look like.
    - dangus 7mo ago
      Revenue != Profit Operating margin has been declining since approximately 3/2025 at Alphabet. You think Google has no ability to tell us whether a traditional search makes more revenue than an AI Summary search? I think we would be naive to assume they don't know that.
  - grtteee 7mo ago
    Yep lol. Every investor and portfolio manager in the world is begging for a signal to say the returns really are coming on all this capex spend.

OccamsMirror 7mo ago

They're talking about free inference like Android and Google Home devices. No one is paying subscription fees for these and they're running their inference in the cloud. Apple Intelligence, for the most part, is running on the device.

knowaveragejoe 7mo ago
Isn't some of Gemini's functionality on Android on-device?
- nl 7mo ago
  Yes it is

dangus 7mo ago

Is there any evidence of any company making money in inference?