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I don't trust forecasts without standard errors. Using the smaller 1987 - 2005 data implies less precise forecasts, so that last graph needs some caveats.
by snewe 18y ago
I don't trust forecasts without standard errors. Using the smaller 1987 - 2005 data implies less precise forecasts, so that last graph needs some caveats.
- jacoblyles 18y agoI don't trust macroeconomic forecasts at all, however I think this article contains an interesting and valuable hypothesis.
- brfox 18y agoYeah, he should run a couple thousand simulations like he did with the election and see the range of values. I agree that it is far fetched to make those long waves based on only the last two recessions.