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"AI polls" are fake polls

• jncfhnb 7mo ago
  This whole synthetic sampling thing really boggles my mind. It’s like… it’s difficult to come up with an example that doesn’t feel like a hyperbolic strawman. It’s just that dumb.
• 0xy 7mo ago
  AI polls are fake, real polls are fake, and Nate Silver's modeling is REALLY fake. Nate Silver implied Florida was in play in 2024 for Democrats, then it went +13 R. This is after he spent 9 years clinging to polling which systematically undercounted Republican support due to either sampling bias or shy voters, or were simply outright fraud in other cases (Selzer's Iowa poll).
  • jncfhnb 7mo ago
    That’s just fundamentally not a meaningful argument You need to assess calibration. Not “accuracy”. What does “in play” even mean?
    • 0xy 6mo ago
      In play means plus or minus 3 points. Claiming that right before a +13 result means your models are fraudulent.
• arc_light 7mo ago
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  • jncfhnb 7mo ago
    No not really. It’s just if you ask the model what percent of people like apples, it doesn’t know the answer. We don’t even need to get to the level of change of opinions. Models don’t “poll” their training data. If you give it five yes answers and five no answers, it doesn’t think that it’s 50/50. If you give it actual data it can derive it, but that would be a poll
    • arc_light 7mo ago
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