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I wish I got a nickel for every one of these solar "game changer" headlines. I'd love to believe the hype, but these wondrous lab results don't seem to make it

by astangl 14y ago

I wish I got a nickel for every one of these solar "game changer" headlines. I'd love to believe the hype, but these wondrous lab results don't seem to make it to the marketplace. By now we ought to have almost-free PV paint that we could paint onto every surface, turning our roofs into almost-free PV cells, windows that function as PV cells, etc. I don't mean to be cynical, but is this field more prone to hype, or just gets hyped more on HN, or what? Maybe the "game changer" hype stories ought to be tempered with some consideration of what might impede commercial development of the idea, like maybe why it's impractical after all.

S_A_P 14y ago
Indeed. It seems all energy "game changers" are perpetually 10 years from mass market. Not that we shouldn't keep trying, but its definitely something that can make a cynic out of you.
AndrewDucker 14y ago
They're happening all the time. http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/solar-insights-pv-costs-set-for-another-30-fall-in-2012-2012 http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/solar-insights-pv-costs-set-... 30% fall in production costs this year, 75% over the two previous years. PV costs are constantly dropping at very high rates. http://cleantechnica.com/2011/06/10/solar-power-graphs-to-make-you-smile/ http://cleantechnica.com/2011/06/10/solar-power-graphs-to-ma...
- marvin 14y ago
  Yep. Things are getting really interesting these days. Some German coal plants have to shut down during peak solar production because they simply become unprofitable to operate. The US has added huge import taxes on the next generation of Chinese panels. Lots of existing solar companies are going bankrupt because they haven't been able to adapt fast enough. It's not just a series of pie-in-the-sky headlines. Things are changing, fast.
- astangl 14y ago
  Not sure what the "not including silicon" means in that first story. Nevertheless, these are evolutionary improvements, not the revolutionary ones implied by the hyped headlines. Don't get me wrong -- I'd love to see PV power production become prevalent. I've been waiting decades now, regularly reading stories about "paint-on" solar cells, etc., and getting frustrated at how the "paint-on" and "spray on" thing keeps getting headlines year after year, decade after decade, but somehow never becoming a product. Isn't it rational to question when the same "game changing" idea keeps making headlines, across years & decades?
egor83 14y ago
> but these wondrous lab results don't seem to make it to the marketplace However, there is a very good progress in solar energy production. According to this chart [1], solar production in July '12 (peak month) was more than twice the producion in July '08 - 100% increase in four years. And that's in US only, and they aren't the leaders in solar adoption - that'd be Germany and Italy, according to BP report [2]. This report also says that worldwide solar production grew almost ten-fold over the last 5 years! So, I'd say lab results do affect the global picture already. ------------- [1]: http://ycharts.com/indicators/us_solar_energy_production http://ycharts.com/indicators/us_solar_energy_production [2]: http://www.bp.com/extendedsectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9041560&contentId=7075261 http://www.bp.com/extendedsectiongenericarticle.do?categoryI...

by astangl 14y ago

S_A_P 14y ago

Indeed. It seems all energy "game changers" are perpetually 10 years from mass market. Not that we shouldn't keep trying, but its definitely something that can make a cynic out of you.

AndrewDucker 14y ago

They're happening all the time. http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/solar-insights-pv-costs-set-for-another-30-fall-in-2012-2012 http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/solar-insights-pv-costs-set-... 30% fall in production costs this year, 75% over the two previous years. PV costs are constantly dropping at very high rates. http://cleantechnica.com/2011/06/10/solar-power-graphs-to-make-you-smile/ http://cleantechnica.com/2011/06/10/solar-power-graphs-to-ma...

marvin 14y ago
Yep. Things are getting really interesting these days. Some German coal plants have to shut down during peak solar production because they simply become unprofitable to operate. The US has added huge import taxes on the next generation of Chinese panels. Lots of existing solar companies are going bankrupt because they haven't been able to adapt fast enough. It's not just a series of pie-in-the-sky headlines. Things are changing, fast.
astangl 14y ago
Not sure what the "not including silicon" means in that first story. Nevertheless, these are evolutionary improvements, not the revolutionary ones implied by the hyped headlines. Don't get me wrong -- I'd love to see PV power production become prevalent. I've been waiting decades now, regularly reading stories about "paint-on" solar cells, etc., and getting frustrated at how the "paint-on" and "spray on" thing keeps getting headlines year after year, decade after decade, but somehow never becoming a product. Isn't it rational to question when the same "game changing" idea keeps making headlines, across years & decades?

egor83 14y ago

> but these wondrous lab results don't seem to make it to the marketplace However, there is a very good progress in solar energy production. According to this chart [1], solar production in July '12 (peak month) was more than twice the producion in July '08 - 100% increase in four years. And that's in US only, and they aren't the leaders in solar adoption - that'd be Germany and Italy, according to BP report [2]. This report also says that worldwide solar production grew almost ten-fold over the last 5 years! So, I'd say lab results do affect the global picture already. ------------- [1]: http://ycharts.com/indicators/us_solar_energy_production http://ycharts.com/indicators/us_solar_energy_production [2]: http://www.bp.com/extendedsectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9041560&contentId=7075261 http://www.bp.com/extendedsectiongenericarticle.do?categoryI...