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You got the causality backwards, the cynicism is because it's most likely to be fake.
by davebren 6mo ago
You got the causality backwards, the cynicism is because it's most likely to be fake.
- skybrian 6mo agoA lesson of the parable about "crying wolf" is that cynicism based on previous events doesn't prove that the next event is fake. The people who ignored the warning may have thought it "most likely," but they were wrong.
- nothinkjustai 6mo agoNever use previous actions to predict future actions, genius advice.
- skybrian 6mo agoIt’s more about when your priors are so strong that it’s not worth paying attention to a new report. Clearly not in this case.
- davebren 6mo agoThe point of the parable is not about the problem of induction but about how lying erodes trust.