5 ms·
For those who live in the red-pilled real world, just don't trade on something where controlling insiders (also with a potential conflict-of-interest) can beat
by OutOfHere 7mo ago
For those who live in the red-pilled real world, just don't trade on something where controlling insiders (also with a potential conflict-of-interest) can beat you at the game. This is different from bets with non-controlling insiders with no conflict-of-interest.
- maerF0x0 7mo agoIsn't that nearly everything public?
- OutOfHere 7mo agoThe key is avoiding the bets with controlling insiders, i.e. those that could have a potential conflict of interest. Even something as banal as weather data has some insider knowledge, but an insider has no practical control over it, i.e. the insider is non-controlling, with no conflict-of-interest.
- chrisnight 7mo agoWeather data in prediction markets can definitely be gamed. One example that exists in real prediction markets is that the contract specifies a single source as the source of truth. But that source rounds data during unit conversion twice (F -> C -> F), meaning there’s an unequal probability distribution, and some numbers have a 0% chance of winning.
- scoofy 7mo ago“Please don’t gamble except for entertainment purposes.” – Las Vegas