3 ms·

What do you call a fallacy where it is implied that the future will be like the past?

• j-bos 6mo ago
  Maybe similar to boy who cried wolf?
• xpe 6mo ago
  Reminds me about schools of thought on rates of change: > ## Accelerating Change [One School] > > Our intuitions about change are linear; we expect roughly > as much change as has occurred in the past over our own > lifetimes. But technological change feeds on itself, and > therefore accelerates. Change today is faster than it was > 500 years ago, which in turn is faster than it was 5000 > years ago. Our recent past is not a reliable guide to how > much change we should expect in the future. > > Strong claim: Technological change follows smooth curves, > typically exponential. Therefore we can predict with fair > precision when new technologies will arrive, and when they > will cross key thresholds, like the creation of [AI]. > > Advocates: Ray Kurzweil, Alvin Toffler(?), John Smart https://www.yudkowsky.net/singularity/schools
  • mayukh 6mo ago
    linear % change implies exponential change in absolute terms
• almostjazz 6mo ago
  Problem of induction: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Problem_of_induction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Problem_of_induction
• BeetleB 6mo ago
  "The future aint what it used to be."