4 ms·
What do you think of adding prediction market data to the indication? So basically there's this: https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-
by anonfunction 6mo ago
What do you think of adding prediction market data to the indication? So basically there's this:
https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-april-30/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-april-30 https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return...
My approach would be if that jumps up to 75%+ it would change to YES. And if we get into May they have one for then too:
https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return...
You can actually see in the last 24 hours it jumped up with the ceasefire and Iran saying they would open it and fell back with reports it's been shut down again easlier today.
Edit: I added this, I can see a few downvotes, happy to discuss here or in the github repo if anyone has strong feelings on it!
- killingtime74 6mo agoi didnt downvote you but why wouldn't i just go to Polymarket directly for this
- anonfunction 6mo agoI mean you obviously could, the url is a little harder to remember and it doesn't have crossing data. This was just a small fun project I did, so you're free to do whatever you like. The reason I thought of using polymarket data is I didn't have live ship tracking data which is what I originally intended to use.
- killingtime74 6mo agoI don't mean to say your project is not good, quite the opposite. You successfully got the real vessel crossing data and the prediction data is sort of derived or not really based on reality but on the crowd.