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No - consumers will save $54 billion by 2016. They'll then spend those savings on other things. It's a good thing. But I'm afraid it's not the only industry a

No - consumers will save $54 billion by 2016. They'll then spend those savings on other things. It's a good thing. But I'm afraid it's not the only industry about to get absolutely crushed by progress. This story reminds me of the time Steve Jurvetson (a VC of DFJ fame) discussed the amusing interactions he had with a large engine oil company. He clearly illustrated to them them how, and why, their synthetic engine oil business ($10 billion a year) was about to get absolutely decimated by the introduction of essentially maintenance-free electric vehicles. He then told them that they had better diversify their synthetic oil cash cow, before electric vehicles came in and ate them for breakfast. Did they bother heading his warning? No. Instead, they laughed in his face. Everyone that services cars is next on this list - outside of brake pads and body panel beaters. I wonder how long it will be before there's an article that states: "World to lose $15 trillion as AI and automation replace most humans."

euroclydon 14y ago
It's hilarious that you write this anecdote in the past tense like your talking about a wagon axle greese company or something!
- confluence 14y ago
  What's past is prologue.
manaskarekar 14y ago
"World to lose $15 trillion as AI and automation replace most humans." Interesting and often discussed thought and more or less and inevitability. I was hunting for some discussions on this and came across this blog post. http://marshalljonesjr.com/what-happens-when-no-one-needs-to-work/ http://marshalljonesjr.com/what-happens-when-no-one-needs-to... Exactly what I was wondering. Anyone know any resources where questions like these are discussed? Maybe Econ 101? Another article that popped up. http://deoxy.org/endwork.htm http://deoxy.org/endwork.htm The only ability that humans seemingly have over robots is creativity.
- TeMPOraL 14y ago
  There's a sci-fi story about such post-scarcity society written by Cory Doctorow: http://craphound.com/down/?page_id=1625 http://craphound.com/down/?page_id=1625 A good read. But be warned, it's not just technoutopian, it's about a technoutopian Disneyland :).
powertower 14y ago
> I wonder how long it will be before there's an article that states: "World to lose $15 trillion as AI and automation replace most humans." Not very long. We are way pass the points on a bell-shaped curve were an increase in efficiency (due to technological progress, and accumulation of knowledge) produces an increase in overall job numbers. We are now somewhere over the hump, and are at a point were for every job efficiency creates, it removes 2-5 overall jobs. Full employment is no longer sustainable.
- AlexMuir 14y ago
  I agree that full employment is not sustainable. But that's a positive thing. Full employment in 1857 meant everyone from the age of 13 working 60 hours a week in rough conditions. Now full employment means everyone over 21 working 48 hours a week in a safe environment. In 30 years it will mean people between 21 and 35 working 20 hours a week at home. That's progress.
  - glesica 14y ago
    Assuming the system keeps up. Right now it is nearly impossible for many of us to work part-time without taking a huge hourly rate cut. You can (sometimes) work as a contractor/consultant, but then the tax and healthcare systems are stacked against you. I personally think it is insane that we still work 40 hours per week today. Many people seem to deal with the ridiculous situation by wasting time at work (e.g. surfing Reddit for half the day). This is bad for the bottom line and, more importantly (because the effect is broader), bad for employee-morale. I think part of the problem is that many in our society (talking about the US here) equate hours with "work". If you don't put in the time, you must not have done the work. And if you do the work in less time, you should just do more work (even when that doesn't make sense). This jives with the message we keep hearing from the political class. That we have had things too good and that we just can't afford for everyone to have such "lavish" lifestyles any more. They seem to think things need to move in the opposite direction, more people working longer for less compensation. I strongly disagree. But then, I am much more concerned with the quality and general happiness of my life overall than I am with how many widgets I create or consume.
- 14y ago
cglace 14y ago
"Did they bother heading his warning? No. Instead, they laughed in his face." The company that makes valvoline, Ashland Inc., seems to be at an all time high. It's going to be a long time before synthetic oil companies are not needed. I don't see tractor trailers, construction machinery, large trucks, etc. going electric for a very long time.

euroclydon 14y ago

It's hilarious that you write this anecdote in the past tense like your talking about a wagon axle greese company or something!

confluence 14y ago
What's past is prologue.

manaskarekar 14y ago

"World to lose $15 trillion as AI and automation replace most humans." Interesting and often discussed thought and more or less and inevitability. I was hunting for some discussions on this and came across this blog post. http://marshalljonesjr.com/what-happens-when-no-one-needs-to-work/ http://marshalljonesjr.com/what-happens-when-no-one-needs-to... Exactly what I was wondering. Anyone know any resources where questions like these are discussed? Maybe Econ 101? Another article that popped up. http://deoxy.org/endwork.htm http://deoxy.org/endwork.htm The only ability that humans seemingly have over robots is creativity.

TeMPOraL 14y ago
There's a sci-fi story about such post-scarcity society written by Cory Doctorow: http://craphound.com/down/?page_id=1625 http://craphound.com/down/?page_id=1625 A good read. But be warned, it's not just technoutopian, it's about a technoutopian Disneyland :).

powertower 14y ago

> I wonder how long it will be before there's an article that states: "World to lose $15 trillion as AI and automation replace most humans." Not very long. We are way pass the points on a bell-shaped curve were an increase in efficiency (due to technological progress, and accumulation of knowledge) produces an increase in overall job numbers. We are now somewhere over the hump, and are at a point were for every job efficiency creates, it removes 2-5 overall jobs. Full employment is no longer sustainable.

AlexMuir 14y ago
I agree that full employment is not sustainable. But that's a positive thing. Full employment in 1857 meant everyone from the age of 13 working 60 hours a week in rough conditions. Now full employment means everyone over 21 working 48 hours a week in a safe environment. In 30 years it will mean people between 21 and 35 working 20 hours a week at home. That's progress.
- glesica 14y ago
  Assuming the system keeps up. Right now it is nearly impossible for many of us to work part-time without taking a huge hourly rate cut. You can (sometimes) work as a contractor/consultant, but then the tax and healthcare systems are stacked against you. I personally think it is insane that we still work 40 hours per week today. Many people seem to deal with the ridiculous situation by wasting time at work (e.g. surfing Reddit for half the day). This is bad for the bottom line and, more importantly (because the effect is broader), bad for employee-morale. I think part of the problem is that many in our society (talking about the US here) equate hours with "work". If you don't put in the time, you must not have done the work. And if you do the work in less time, you should just do more work (even when that doesn't make sense). This jives with the message we keep hearing from the political class. That we have had things too good and that we just can't afford for everyone to have such "lavish" lifestyles any more. They seem to think things need to move in the opposite direction, more people working longer for less compensation. I strongly disagree. But then, I am much more concerned with the quality and general happiness of my life overall than I am with how many widgets I create or consume.
14y ago

cglace 14y ago

"Did they bother heading his warning? No. Instead, they laughed in his face." The company that makes valvoline, Ashland Inc., seems to be at an all time high. It's going to be a long time before synthetic oil companies are not needed. I don't see tractor trailers, construction machinery, large trucks, etc. going electric for a very long time.