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I read this as 2020 was Covid related drop, it then returned to normal for 2 years, then began dropping again in late 2023. The covid blip is explained by what

I read this as 2020 was Covid related drop, it then returned to normal for 2 years, then began dropping again in late 2023. The covid blip is explained by what was going on at the time, nothing since 2023 has any explanation and could be flock

ceejayoz 6mo ago
COVID makes it spike up (after a months long downward trend long before the cameras), not down. Nation-wide, incidentally. The cameras were added where the black rectangle is here: https://imgur.com/a/i00Gna0 https://imgur.com/a/i00Gna0
- conductr 6mo ago
  There are two nearly identical peaks on this chart. The trough between them is Covid. I’m not seeing anything I can call a Covid spike
  - whimsicalism 6mo ago
    well that's because you're discussing in good faith
    - ceejayoz 6mo ago
      Where am I using bad faith?
  - ceejayoz 6mo ago
    The lowest point of the first trough is when COVID starts. It then rapidly increases and stays high for two years.
    - conductr 6mo ago
      It looks like that rapid increase was a return to pre-covid normal. It never spikes above pre-covid. Given the world was returning to normal, this is precisely what you'd expect most trends to look like, something like in-restaurant dining probably looks similar.
      - ceejayoz 6mo ago
        As the authors note, their data only goes back to 2018. So “pre-COVID normal” is tough to confirm here. Then we have to figure out why it dropped so much pre-COVID. Because the timeline doesn’t say it can possibly be Flock. Same for the 2023 drop. The timeline simply doesn’t match up with Flock’s rollout.
        conductr 6mo ago
        That’s why I said “how I read this chart is ….” I don’t know what pre2018 looked like either. But on this chart, it was the precovid portion. Nowhere on here am I seeing how covid caused a spike up, that’s what you said though and signifying our differences in reading the chart that was shown.

ceejayoz 6mo ago

COVID makes it spike up (after a months long downward trend long before the cameras), not down. Nation-wide, incidentally. The cameras were added where the black rectangle is here: https://imgur.com/a/i00Gna0 https://imgur.com/a/i00Gna0

conductr 6mo ago
There are two nearly identical peaks on this chart. The trough between them is Covid. I’m not seeing anything I can call a Covid spike
- whimsicalism 6mo ago
  well that's because you're discussing in good faith
  - ceejayoz 6mo ago
    Where am I using bad faith?
- ceejayoz 6mo ago
  The lowest point of the first trough is when COVID starts. It then rapidly increases and stays high for two years.
  - conductr 6mo ago
    It looks like that rapid increase was a return to pre-covid normal. It never spikes above pre-covid. Given the world was returning to normal, this is precisely what you'd expect most trends to look like, something like in-restaurant dining probably looks similar.
    - ceejayoz 6mo ago
      As the authors note, their data only goes back to 2018. So “pre-COVID normal” is tough to confirm here. Then we have to figure out why it dropped so much pre-COVID. Because the timeline doesn’t say it can possibly be Flock. Same for the 2023 drop. The timeline simply doesn’t match up with Flock’s rollout.
      - conductr 6mo ago
        That’s why I said “how I read this chart is ….” I don’t know what pre2018 looked like either. But on this chart, it was the precovid portion. Nowhere on here am I seeing how covid caused a spike up, that’s what you said though and signifying our differences in reading the chart that was shown.