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It's not entirely crazy. I believe Thorp described this about roulette wheels. If they had no imperfection at all, it would be computationally laborious but not

by kqr 7mo ago

It's not entirely crazy. I believe Thorp described this about roulette wheels. If they had no imperfection at all, it would be computationally laborious but not unthinkable to compute the result from the initial positions and velocities. In order to be unpredictable, roulette wheels need to have imperfections. Those very same imperfections, of course, lead to some statistical regularities. Edit: It wasn't quite that, but very nearly: start reading paragraph 5 in http://www.edwardothorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/PhysicalPredictionOfRoulette_l.pdf http://www.edwardothorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Physi... In the next article in the series, he explains that in practice, roulette wheels are often tilted and that can be used to gain a further advantage: http://www.edwardothorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/PhysicalPredictionOfRoulette_ll.pdf http://www.edwardothorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Physi...

blitzar 7mo ago
If you are the house you probably want to go around every so often and give the wheel a little bump to reset the entropy seed for the day.
xyzzy_plugh 7mo ago
Anecdotally I was on a streak and the dealer was actively concentrating and focusing to get my number again. She managed to get it 4 out of 5 spins. Now she would obviously never admit to this, but I'm positive that she was able to, on this specific wheel, land on the number she wanted. I think we would've kept going but she rotated off and I cashed out. Edit: Thorp and Shannon! What a duo. Great articles, thanks for sharing.
- bluGill 7mo ago
  The house wants you to think that anyway. If it is possible or not.. The house wants people to win money and tell their friends, and every "winning" strategy is good for them - so long as in the end the house makes money.
  - xyzzy_plugh 7mo ago
    I mean, yes, but also no. The house wants you to lose money, but win just enough to think you have a chance. There's a reason those zeroes are on the board. There's no deep strategy in Roulette, really. I play for fun, and the money I put on the table is already spent. The anecdote was: I wouldn't have seriously believed that you could reliably manipulate the spin outcome, and as an observer, that's true. I didn't believe the dealer could either, but after seeing this dealer pull it off I definitely see the potential for manipulation. It was almost like she was showing off that she could. And besides, she earned a hefty tip.
    - bluGill 7mo ago
      > The house wants you to lose money, but win just enough to think you have a chance The house wants to make money overall. They know that individuals who make money tend to tell more friends than those who lose money - free advertising - so they want some people to make money. The total needs to be the average person loses money, but they need some individuals to make money. On the small stakes systems they may even like it when they lose money like that - the dealer makes a big tip, and it encourages people (or their friends) to move to a higher stakes bet where they will lose more. They have to be careful about the law (which probably doesn't allow that manipulation if possible, even if it isn't in their favor), but again individuals with a story to tell are worth a lot more than than the money they lose on that story.
      - xyzzy_plugh 7mo ago
        I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. If you're trying to suggest that the casinos train or encourage croupiers to cheat so that patrons get winning streaks, then what you're describing is a fantasy. Casinos are plenty successful without those sort of shenanigans. If anything it's the opposite: pit bosses actively police croupiers who are spinning too consistently, and croupiers are encouraged to vary their spin throughout their session to avoid bias.

by kqr 7mo ago

blitzar 7mo ago

If you are the house you probably want to go around every so often and give the wheel a little bump to reset the entropy seed for the day.

xyzzy_plugh 7mo ago

Anecdotally I was on a streak and the dealer was actively concentrating and focusing to get my number again. She managed to get it 4 out of 5 spins. Now she would obviously never admit to this, but I'm positive that she was able to, on this specific wheel, land on the number she wanted. I think we would've kept going but she rotated off and I cashed out. Edit: Thorp and Shannon! What a duo. Great articles, thanks for sharing.

bluGill 7mo ago
The house wants you to think that anyway. If it is possible or not.. The house wants people to win money and tell their friends, and every "winning" strategy is good for them - so long as in the end the house makes money.
- xyzzy_plugh 7mo ago
  I mean, yes, but also no. The house wants you to lose money, but win just enough to think you have a chance. There's a reason those zeroes are on the board. There's no deep strategy in Roulette, really. I play for fun, and the money I put on the table is already spent. The anecdote was: I wouldn't have seriously believed that you could reliably manipulate the spin outcome, and as an observer, that's true. I didn't believe the dealer could either, but after seeing this dealer pull it off I definitely see the potential for manipulation. It was almost like she was showing off that she could. And besides, she earned a hefty tip.
  - bluGill 7mo ago
    > The house wants you to lose money, but win just enough to think you have a chance The house wants to make money overall. They know that individuals who make money tend to tell more friends than those who lose money - free advertising - so they want some people to make money. The total needs to be the average person loses money, but they need some individuals to make money. On the small stakes systems they may even like it when they lose money like that - the dealer makes a big tip, and it encourages people (or their friends) to move to a higher stakes bet where they will lose more. They have to be careful about the law (which probably doesn't allow that manipulation if possible, even if it isn't in their favor), but again individuals with a story to tell are worth a lot more than than the money they lose on that story.
    - xyzzy_plugh 7mo ago
      I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. If you're trying to suggest that the casinos train or encourage croupiers to cheat so that patrons get winning streaks, then what you're describing is a fantasy. Casinos are plenty successful without those sort of shenanigans. If anything it's the opposite: pit bosses actively police croupiers who are spinning too consistently, and croupiers are encouraged to vary their spin throughout their session to avoid bias.