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There will be a 2 week ceasefire, western countries will move ships out of the straight, the Saudis will reroute oil, the 10 point plan is idiotic and the US wi
by dismalaf 7mo ago
There will be a 2 week ceasefire, western countries will move ships out of the straight, the Saudis will reroute oil, the 10 point plan is idiotic and the US will have an easy excuse to resume bombing them.
- antoniojtorres 7mo agoReroute where? Nonsense. If that was the case then the tensions wouldn’t be this high.
- dismalaf 7mo agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East%E2%80%93West_Crude_Oil_Pipeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East%E2%80%93West_Crude_Oil_Pi... Tensions are high because of all the trapped ships. Not because there's no alternative.
- cozzyd 7mo agoWait until you hear about the Houthis.(or the fact that the pipeline is only a small fraction of the capacity of the strait).
- dismalaf 7mo agoAll the proxies Iran arms is a good argument for continuing to attack them.
- decimalenough 7mo agoThe Saudi & UAE pipelines combined can only carry around 9mbpd and are already maxed out, compared to an average of 20 through the Strait.
- dismalaf 7mo agoAnd? Reduced capacity for awhile raises prices, the Saudis can sit on some oil and have the US get rid of their geopolitical and economic rival. Again, short term goal is to clear out the stranded ships and the war can resume. Because the Iranian 10 point plan is so ridiculous even Trump isn't dumb enough to take it.
- Yoric 7mo agoMy assumption is that, by now, Trump just wants to save face and move on to an easier target, one that can't strike back. He's been preparing the US opinion for Cuba. So I wouldn't be surprised if negotiations just... stopped, without anything happening. Pretty much what happened, if I understand correctly, to the economic negotiations with Japan, EU, Canada, Mexico and anybody else regarding US import taxes.
- tonfa 7mo ago> And? Reduced capacity for awhile raises prices That oil is being consumed somewhere, countries/industries will face shortage (in addition to the price increase).
- locknitpicker 7mo ago> And? Reduced capacity for awhile raises prices, the Saudis can sit on some oil and have the US get rid of their geopolitical and economic rival. That pipeline is a strike away from being out for months, if not years. > Because the Iranian 10 point plan is so ridiculous even Trump isn't dumb enough to take it. The whole situation is ridiculous, and Trump is overtly desperate to stop the nightmare at any cost. Calling something ridiculous is no argument, particularly when we are living in a timeline where stupidity reigns.
- hvb2 7mo agoThat has a capacity of 7M barrels a day, so not an alternative. It'll lessen the blow a tiny bit but that's all it does
- iugtmkbdfil834 7mo agoOk. This is getting silly and on par with 'the straight is open; it is only closed, because Iran is blocking it' quip from Hegseth. Tensions are high, because there are trapped hips AND there is no viable alternative.
- 01100011 7mo agoI don't think we know if the ceasefire will hold or if it's another attempt by trump at strategic delay/deception, but remember that the strait carries a lot more than oil and those things cannot be transported via a pipeline.
- M95D 7mo agoI agree with you that this is just temporary, but for entirely different reasons. I think that stock market fluctuations are making some people very very rich. It's the same game as they did with the tariffs on/off every week and it's not over yet.