4 ms·

We have limited data on this. There have been surveys, but survey data isn’t always very accurate. Here was one survey that showed 81% disapproval of the Islam

We have limited data on this. There have been surveys, but survey data isn’t always very accurate. Here was one survey that showed 81% disapproval of the Islamic Republic: https://gamaan.org/2023/02/04/protests_survey/ https://gamaan.org/2023/02/04/protests_survey/ In a country of 90 million, if the regime has 20% supporters, that’s 18 million supporters. Tehran population is 9 million, 20% of that is 1.8 million. So it’s easy to understand why you might see videos of hundreds or thousands of regime supporters in the streets. That doesn’t mean they’re the majority.

CapricornNoble 6mo ago
Mint Press News has a good article about why Gamaan's methodology is unsound: https://www.mintpressnews.com/gamaan-iran-polling-regime-change/290306/ https://www.mintpressnews.com/gamaan-iran-polling-regime-cha...
- RiverStone 6mo ago
  Thanks, I hadn’t seen that article before. Interesting read. My take is that GAMAAN likely overstates the opposition, but all surveys on Iran are imperfect, not just GAMAAN. I know Pew has done surveys in Iran, but didn’t directly ask if people support the regime. I personally believe that the opposition group is larger than the regime supporters. I think there’s enough data to infer that. But I’ll also admit that there’s probably a sizable percentage of ambivalent/non-revolutionary Iranians who would just be satisfied with a better economy.
krainboltgreene 6mo ago
Hey man, 60% of americans disapprove of the current government, that doesn't mean they want to nuke Washington DC.
- RiverStone 6mo ago
  All I can tell you is to go talk with Iranians. I don’t know where you live, but every major city has an Iranian expat community. All I’m trying to communicate is the conversations that I’ve had with my Iranian wife, her expat friends, and my in-laws in Tehran.
  - herewulf 6mo ago
    Maybe they should go be the boots on the ground for the next quagmire if it's so important to them? Commander in Chief Bonespurs and the Secretary of Booze can lead the charge straight up the Straight. Or maybe they should just focus on being Americans in America and some day Iran will sort itself out without the US' "help".
    - RiverStone 6mo ago
      It won’t just resolve itself, unfortunately. The last 40+ years have proven that. A non-theocratic Iran is in the US interest. If you give the Iranians arms, I’m sure they would be happy to fight. Have we armed anti-regime Iranians? I do think we have an obligation to help. That’s just my personal opinion. As an analogy: if your neighbor is beating his wife, it’s not moral to just put your earplugs in and go back to sleep. You have to take action.
      - bdangubic 6mo ago
        why do we have a moral obligation to help? and why them? there are many places on Earth with a lot worse situation for citizens than Iranians, do we have a moral obligation to help everyone and prioritize?
        RiverStone 6mo ago
        Yes, we absolutely do! We should prioritize. We have to be pragmatic and choose our battles. We can’t be everywhere at once. Iran has destabilized the region for decades. It’s hard to imagine how game changing it would be to remove that.
        bdangubic 6mo ago
        again, why do we care? about this region in particular. and for whom would it be “game-changing” other than Israel? > we have to be pragmatic and choose our battles this sounds very far removed from “we have a moral obligation” bottom line, we should not give two shits about what is happening there and we even went voting for a candidate who told us he’ll be the one to make sure we don’t give two shits about it except of course he turned out to be worse than all previous ones combined :)

CapricornNoble 6mo ago

Mint Press News has a good article about why Gamaan's methodology is unsound: https://www.mintpressnews.com/gamaan-iran-polling-regime-change/290306/ https://www.mintpressnews.com/gamaan-iran-polling-regime-cha...

RiverStone 6mo ago
Thanks, I hadn’t seen that article before. Interesting read. My take is that GAMAAN likely overstates the opposition, but all surveys on Iran are imperfect, not just GAMAAN. I know Pew has done surveys in Iran, but didn’t directly ask if people support the regime. I personally believe that the opposition group is larger than the regime supporters. I think there’s enough data to infer that. But I’ll also admit that there’s probably a sizable percentage of ambivalent/non-revolutionary Iranians who would just be satisfied with a better economy.

krainboltgreene 6mo ago

Hey man, 60% of americans disapprove of the current government, that doesn't mean they want to nuke Washington DC.

RiverStone 6mo ago
All I can tell you is to go talk with Iranians. I don’t know where you live, but every major city has an Iranian expat community. All I’m trying to communicate is the conversations that I’ve had with my Iranian wife, her expat friends, and my in-laws in Tehran.
- herewulf 6mo ago
  Maybe they should go be the boots on the ground for the next quagmire if it's so important to them? Commander in Chief Bonespurs and the Secretary of Booze can lead the charge straight up the Straight. Or maybe they should just focus on being Americans in America and some day Iran will sort itself out without the US' "help".
  - RiverStone 6mo ago
    It won’t just resolve itself, unfortunately. The last 40+ years have proven that. A non-theocratic Iran is in the US interest. If you give the Iranians arms, I’m sure they would be happy to fight. Have we armed anti-regime Iranians? I do think we have an obligation to help. That’s just my personal opinion. As an analogy: if your neighbor is beating his wife, it’s not moral to just put your earplugs in and go back to sleep. You have to take action.
    - bdangubic 6mo ago
      why do we have a moral obligation to help? and why them? there are many places on Earth with a lot worse situation for citizens than Iranians, do we have a moral obligation to help everyone and prioritize?
      - RiverStone 6mo ago
        Yes, we absolutely do! We should prioritize. We have to be pragmatic and choose our battles. We can’t be everywhere at once. Iran has destabilized the region for decades. It’s hard to imagine how game changing it would be to remove that.
        bdangubic 6mo ago
        again, why do we care? about this region in particular. and for whom would it be “game-changing” other than Israel? > we have to be pragmatic and choose our battles this sounds very far removed from “we have a moral obligation” bottom line, we should not give two shits about what is happening there and we even went voting for a candidate who told us he’ll be the one to make sure we don’t give two shits about it except of course he turned out to be worse than all previous ones combined :)