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>That’s millions of Iranians. My in-laws who lives in Tehran are anti-regime, along with every single person on my wife’s side of the family: aunts, uncles, cou

>That’s millions of Iranians. My in-laws who lives in Tehran are anti-regime, along with every single person on my wife’s side of the family: aunts, uncles, cousins. Everybody. How do you square this with the absolutely massive pro-government rallies that we've seen all across Iran for the entire duration of the conflict? Millions of Iranians opposed to the regime, in a country of 90 million+, might still be a fringe minority. If you asked some American expat their thoughts on MAGA, and they responded "China should bomb MAGA rallies so we can be free from the Republican party, my whole family in the US agrees".....that person would be considered a fringe lunatic, even if Trump's regime has record-low approval like it does now (and rightly deserves, I hope he is impeached and jailed).

RiverStone 6mo ago
We have limited data on this. There have been surveys, but survey data isn’t always very accurate. Here was one survey that showed 81% disapproval of the Islamic Republic: https://gamaan.org/2023/02/04/protests_survey/ https://gamaan.org/2023/02/04/protests_survey/ In a country of 90 million, if the regime has 20% supporters, that’s 18 million supporters. Tehran population is 9 million, 20% of that is 1.8 million. So it’s easy to understand why you might see videos of hundreds or thousands of regime supporters in the streets. That doesn’t mean they’re the majority.
- CapricornNoble 6mo ago
  Mint Press News has a good article about why Gamaan's methodology is unsound: https://www.mintpressnews.com/gamaan-iran-polling-regime-change/290306/ https://www.mintpressnews.com/gamaan-iran-polling-regime-cha...
  - RiverStone 6mo ago
    Thanks, I hadn’t seen that article before. Interesting read. My take is that GAMAAN likely overstates the opposition, but all surveys on Iran are imperfect, not just GAMAAN. I know Pew has done surveys in Iran, but didn’t directly ask if people support the regime. I personally believe that the opposition group is larger than the regime supporters. I think there’s enough data to infer that. But I’ll also admit that there’s probably a sizable percentage of ambivalent/non-revolutionary Iranians who would just be satisfied with a better economy.
- krainboltgreene 6mo ago
  Hey man, 60% of americans disapprove of the current government, that doesn't mean they want to nuke Washington DC.
  - RiverStone 6mo ago
    All I can tell you is to go talk with Iranians. I don’t know where you live, but every major city has an Iranian expat community. All I’m trying to communicate is the conversations that I’ve had with my Iranian wife, her expat friends, and my in-laws in Tehran.
    - herewulf 6mo ago
      Maybe they should go be the boots on the ground for the next quagmire if it's so important to them? Commander in Chief Bonespurs and the Secretary of Booze can lead the charge straight up the Straight. Or maybe they should just focus on being Americans in America and some day Iran will sort itself out without the US' "help".
      - RiverStone 6mo ago
        It won’t just resolve itself, unfortunately. The last 40+ years have proven that. A non-theocratic Iran is in the US interest. If you give the Iranians arms, I’m sure they would be happy to fight. Have we armed anti-regime Iranians? I do think we have an obligation to help. That’s just my personal opinion. As an analogy: if your neighbor is beating his wife, it’s not moral to just put your earplugs in and go back to sleep. You have to take action.
        bdangubic 6mo ago
        why do we have a moral obligation to help? and why them? there are many places on Earth with a lot worse situation for citizens than Iranians, do we have a moral obligation to help everyone and prioritize?
        6mo ago
mlrtime 6mo ago
I trust the people who are close to this more than what you hear on the news. My guess is 90%+ of the readers here know nothing of Iranians except what they read or hear on the news. How many of you have been to Iran, have family members there, etc? I'm guessing very few.

RiverStone 6mo ago

We have limited data on this. There have been surveys, but survey data isn’t always very accurate. Here was one survey that showed 81% disapproval of the Islamic Republic: https://gamaan.org/2023/02/04/protests_survey/ https://gamaan.org/2023/02/04/protests_survey/ In a country of 90 million, if the regime has 20% supporters, that’s 18 million supporters. Tehran population is 9 million, 20% of that is 1.8 million. So it’s easy to understand why you might see videos of hundreds or thousands of regime supporters in the streets. That doesn’t mean they’re the majority.

CapricornNoble 6mo ago
Mint Press News has a good article about why Gamaan's methodology is unsound: https://www.mintpressnews.com/gamaan-iran-polling-regime-change/290306/ https://www.mintpressnews.com/gamaan-iran-polling-regime-cha...
- RiverStone 6mo ago
  Thanks, I hadn’t seen that article before. Interesting read. My take is that GAMAAN likely overstates the opposition, but all surveys on Iran are imperfect, not just GAMAAN. I know Pew has done surveys in Iran, but didn’t directly ask if people support the regime. I personally believe that the opposition group is larger than the regime supporters. I think there’s enough data to infer that. But I’ll also admit that there’s probably a sizable percentage of ambivalent/non-revolutionary Iranians who would just be satisfied with a better economy.
krainboltgreene 6mo ago
Hey man, 60% of americans disapprove of the current government, that doesn't mean they want to nuke Washington DC.
- RiverStone 6mo ago
  All I can tell you is to go talk with Iranians. I don’t know where you live, but every major city has an Iranian expat community. All I’m trying to communicate is the conversations that I’ve had with my Iranian wife, her expat friends, and my in-laws in Tehran.
  - herewulf 6mo ago
    Maybe they should go be the boots on the ground for the next quagmire if it's so important to them? Commander in Chief Bonespurs and the Secretary of Booze can lead the charge straight up the Straight. Or maybe they should just focus on being Americans in America and some day Iran will sort itself out without the US' "help".
    - RiverStone 6mo ago
      It won’t just resolve itself, unfortunately. The last 40+ years have proven that. A non-theocratic Iran is in the US interest. If you give the Iranians arms, I’m sure they would be happy to fight. Have we armed anti-regime Iranians? I do think we have an obligation to help. That’s just my personal opinion. As an analogy: if your neighbor is beating his wife, it’s not moral to just put your earplugs in and go back to sleep. You have to take action.
      - bdangubic 6mo ago
        why do we have a moral obligation to help? and why them? there are many places on Earth with a lot worse situation for citizens than Iranians, do we have a moral obligation to help everyone and prioritize?
        6mo ago

mlrtime 6mo ago

I trust the people who are close to this more than what you hear on the news. My guess is 90%+ of the readers here know nothing of Iranians except what they read or hear on the news. How many of you have been to Iran, have family members there, etc? I'm guessing very few.