7 ms·

Better article with text: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/07/trump-iran-war-ceasefire https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/07/trump-iran-w.

Better article with text: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/07/trump-iran-war-ceasefire https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/07/trump-iran-w... > Israel will also agree to the two-week ceasefire, Axios reported, citing an Israeli official, adding that the ceasefire would enter effect as soon as the blockade of the strait of Hormuz ceased There’s the catch.

nickvec 6mo ago
Yep. No way they’re opening the Strait of Hormuz until the US/Israel gets the fuck out of Iran.
- chasd00 6mo ago
  They’re not in Iran. Both countries have announced an end to offensive operations in the past half hour or so.
  - nickvec 6mo ago
    I thought it was only for two weeks? Unless I'm missing some big news.
- bawolff 6mo ago
  And no way US stops bombing them unless they open the strait (I say US because Israel doesnt care about the strait). I think such an agreement is plausible. Trump really cares about oil prices, and i imagine Iranian leadership would really like to stop being bombed.
  - computerex 6mo ago
    [flagged]
    - throwaway290 6mo ago
      [flagged]
    - bawolff 6mo ago
      > There is no military solution to open the strait. There is no cheap & fast military solution. There are certainly military solutions if you are ok with it taking a while or costing a lot of lives. > Iran has capability to hit back They have demonstrated they can make the surounding countries miserable. They arent capable of actually getting a military victory. Which is why a deal is plausible. USA doesnt want to spend (in money and lives) what it would cost to open the strait. Iran demonstrates it can hit back enough to be annoying but not enough to force a victory. Sounds like neither side is exactly capable of "winning" (without us spending more than it wants), so a deal sounds plausible.
ceejayoz 6mo ago
Israel seems likely to do anything they can to start things up again.
- rvz 6mo ago
  They will try for a last minute "false flag" to bait the US to think that Iran broke the ceasefire first as always. To Downvoters: You do understand that it was Israel that attacked first right? They are not happy with this provisional ceasefire agreement.
  - afpx 6mo ago
    The Israelis are playing this like a strategy game and using ancient tactics. Therefore, I predict they will try to get all US military-aged men into Iran before they nuke it. Then, they will unleash all of the drones they have hidden all across the US.
    - abustamam 6mo ago
      The scary thing is this is totally plausible. Israel has the US wrapped around its little finger.
- bawolff 6mo ago
  They dont have to do anything but wait. Its only a 2 week ceasefire.
  - ceejayoz 6mo ago
    When Trump says his healthcare plan or infrastructure plan come “in two weeks” it means never.
  - moogly 6mo ago
    Usually Israel does not even wait a day to break a ceasefire.
  - bawolff 6mo ago
akabalanza 6mo ago
They will stop bombing as soon as Iran comes back to the situation for which it was bombed.
dang 6mo ago
Ok, I've switched the link above to that and put the submitted URL in the toptext. If there are other good links, we can add them.
Rotdhizon 6mo ago
The US is one thing but there is no possible way Israel will stop bombing. They will openly say they will, and continue to do so. It just gives them more breathing room to calculate bigger and more serious strikes. Israel has literally nothing to lose. The US is taking all the heat for any actions in Iran. Israel and Iran are mortal enemies, one can not continue to exist while the other lives, this is how they view it. Iran wants Israel erased, Israel wants Iran erased. This isn't going to stop until one of them suffers catastrophic damage.
- spaghetdefects 6mo ago
  [flagged]
  - lotsofpulp 6mo ago
    I do not stand with societies that do not do human rights for women.
    - deleted 6mo ago
      [deleted]
    - spaghetdefects 6mo ago
      Israel has murdered tens of thousands of women in the past few years alone.
- Bubble1296 6mo ago
  I believe from what I have heard and read that Israel will likely only stop if US formally withdraws military support in a sense that they stop supplying weapons (?)
- ajsnigrutin 6mo ago
  > Israel has literally nothing to lose. Israel has a lot to lose, the question is only how much of the lost will be replaced by american taxpayers' money. They're almost out of anti-air interceptors, the war they started in lebanon is going badly and iran still has tens of thousands of drones left. There's also hamas and hezbollah and more and more of the world is turning against them, be it in proper politics or even mundane stuff like the eurovision. And it's not just the aljazeera and similar media, the israelis said it themselves: https://www.timesofisrael.com/zamir-said-to-warn-cabinet-that-idf-will-collapse-in-on-itself-amid-manpower-shortage/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/zamir-said-to-warn-cabinet-tha...
tmnvix 6mo ago
Yes, seems a bit of a gap between US and Iranian opinions on the state of the strait. US says "open it", while Iran has for some time claimed it is open - only subject to conditions. Then, as you mention, the Israelis talk of an end to the blockade. I foresee a possible relaxation of conditions on the strait by Iran while keeping their hand on the lever providing substantial leverage during any actual negotiations. I also note that it seems the US are considering Iranian demands - not the other way around. Even with that, Trumps' toughest negotiations may be with the Israelis.

nickvec 6mo ago

Yep. No way they’re opening the Strait of Hormuz until the US/Israel gets the fuck out of Iran.

chasd00 6mo ago
They’re not in Iran. Both countries have announced an end to offensive operations in the past half hour or so.
- nickvec 6mo ago
  I thought it was only for two weeks? Unless I'm missing some big news.
bawolff 6mo ago
And no way US stops bombing them unless they open the strait (I say US because Israel doesnt care about the strait). I think such an agreement is plausible. Trump really cares about oil prices, and i imagine Iranian leadership would really like to stop being bombed.
- computerex 6mo ago
  [flagged]
  - throwaway290 6mo ago
    [flagged]
  - bawolff 6mo ago
    > There is no military solution to open the strait. There is no cheap & fast military solution. There are certainly military solutions if you are ok with it taking a while or costing a lot of lives. > Iran has capability to hit back They have demonstrated they can make the surounding countries miserable. They arent capable of actually getting a military victory. Which is why a deal is plausible. USA doesnt want to spend (in money and lives) what it would cost to open the strait. Iran demonstrates it can hit back enough to be annoying but not enough to force a victory. Sounds like neither side is exactly capable of "winning" (without us spending more than it wants), so a deal sounds plausible.

ceejayoz 6mo ago

Israel seems likely to do anything they can to start things up again.

rvz 6mo ago
They will try for a last minute "false flag" to bait the US to think that Iran broke the ceasefire first as always. To Downvoters: You do understand that it was Israel that attacked first right? They are not happy with this provisional ceasefire agreement.
- afpx 6mo ago
  The Israelis are playing this like a strategy game and using ancient tactics. Therefore, I predict they will try to get all US military-aged men into Iran before they nuke it. Then, they will unleash all of the drones they have hidden all across the US.
  - abustamam 6mo ago
    The scary thing is this is totally plausible. Israel has the US wrapped around its little finger.
bawolff 6mo ago
They dont have to do anything but wait. Its only a 2 week ceasefire.
- ceejayoz 6mo ago
  When Trump says his healthcare plan or infrastructure plan come “in two weeks” it means never.
- moogly 6mo ago
  Usually Israel does not even wait a day to break a ceasefire.
- bawolff 6mo ago

akabalanza 6mo ago

They will stop bombing as soon as Iran comes back to the situation for which it was bombed.

dang 6mo ago

Ok, I've switched the link above to that and put the submitted URL in the toptext. If there are other good links, we can add them.

Rotdhizon 6mo ago

The US is one thing but there is no possible way Israel will stop bombing. They will openly say they will, and continue to do so. It just gives them more breathing room to calculate bigger and more serious strikes. Israel has literally nothing to lose. The US is taking all the heat for any actions in Iran. Israel and Iran are mortal enemies, one can not continue to exist while the other lives, this is how they view it. Iran wants Israel erased, Israel wants Iran erased. This isn't going to stop until one of them suffers catastrophic damage.

spaghetdefects 6mo ago
[flagged]
- lotsofpulp 6mo ago
  I do not stand with societies that do not do human rights for women.
  - deleted 6mo ago
    [deleted]
  - spaghetdefects 6mo ago
    Israel has murdered tens of thousands of women in the past few years alone.
Bubble1296 6mo ago
I believe from what I have heard and read that Israel will likely only stop if US formally withdraws military support in a sense that they stop supplying weapons (?)
ajsnigrutin 6mo ago
> Israel has literally nothing to lose. Israel has a lot to lose, the question is only how much of the lost will be replaced by american taxpayers' money. They're almost out of anti-air interceptors, the war they started in lebanon is going badly and iran still has tens of thousands of drones left. There's also hamas and hezbollah and more and more of the world is turning against them, be it in proper politics or even mundane stuff like the eurovision. And it's not just the aljazeera and similar media, the israelis said it themselves: https://www.timesofisrael.com/zamir-said-to-warn-cabinet-that-idf-will-collapse-in-on-itself-amid-manpower-shortage/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/zamir-said-to-warn-cabinet-tha...

tmnvix 6mo ago

Yes, seems a bit of a gap between US and Iranian opinions on the state of the strait. US says "open it", while Iran has for some time claimed it is open - only subject to conditions. Then, as you mention, the Israelis talk of an end to the blockade. I foresee a possible relaxation of conditions on the strait by Iran while keeping their hand on the lever providing substantial leverage during any actual negotiations. I also note that it seems the US are considering Iranian demands - not the other way around. Even with that, Trumps' toughest negotiations may be with the Israelis.