3 ms·

This isn't very surprising. Typical US economic policy aims for 2-3% annual inflation. That counter shows an average 2.6% inflation across 26 years, which is ki

by nrclark 6mo ago

This isn't very surprising. Typical US economic policy aims for 2-3% annual inflation. That counter shows an average 2.6% inflation across 26 years, which is kind of right in the range we'd expect. It's debatable whether this is good longterm policy - but it's been the norm in the US for decades.

JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
> Typical US economic policy aims for 2-3% annual inflation. That counter shows an average 2.6% inflation across 26 years, which is kind of right in the range we'd expect We aim for "inflation of 2 percent over the longer run, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures" [1]. [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm
- bobthepanda 6mo ago
  Accurately aiming inflation as a central bank is like trying to keep a deflating balloon the same size using a harmonica. 2.6% isn’t bad, I don’t know that many if any central banks have managed a tighter band.
- rootusrootus 6mo ago
  > "as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures" How closely does that track with CPI-U, which is the index this web site is using? If I believe Gemini, PCE should show a slightly lower inflation number?
downboots 6mo ago
It also says nothing of where that dollar has been in 20 years
- oniony 6mo ago
  Probably down the back of a sofa.
vikingerik 6mo ago
This ticker's current speed is faster than that, though. It's going about 1e-9 dollar per second. That comes to about $0.03 per year, which as a fraction of the current base of $0.50, comes to 6% inflation per year. I don't know how that speed was determined. Either it's using a linear decrease since 2000 (which isn't correct, the inverse of exponential inflation would be logarithmic decay, not linear), or it's weighting by recency for the high inflation since 2020 (which may continue, or may not.)
- traviswingo 6mo ago
  Good eye. The ticker was using the observed rate of change over the two most recent data points, so it's actually biased towards the most recent inflation numbers. I've updated it to simply use the slope between the oldest (January 2000) and the most recent data. It won't be 100% accurate, but it's close enough to create a visual. And the number is always updated monthly with real data anyways.
  - engineer_22 6mo ago
    Nice job, thoughtful execution

by nrclark 6mo ago

JumpCrisscross 6mo ago

> Typical US economic policy aims for 2-3% annual inflation. That counter shows an average 2.6% inflation across 26 years, which is kind of right in the range we'd expect We aim for "inflation of 2 percent over the longer run, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures" [1]. [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm

bobthepanda 6mo ago
Accurately aiming inflation as a central bank is like trying to keep a deflating balloon the same size using a harmonica. 2.6% isn’t bad, I don’t know that many if any central banks have managed a tighter band.
rootusrootus 6mo ago
> "as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures" How closely does that track with CPI-U, which is the index this web site is using? If I believe Gemini, PCE should show a slightly lower inflation number?

downboots 6mo ago

It also says nothing of where that dollar has been in 20 years

oniony 6mo ago
Probably down the back of a sofa.

vikingerik 6mo ago

This ticker's current speed is faster than that, though. It's going about 1e-9 dollar per second. That comes to about $0.03 per year, which as a fraction of the current base of $0.50, comes to 6% inflation per year. I don't know how that speed was determined. Either it's using a linear decrease since 2000 (which isn't correct, the inverse of exponential inflation would be logarithmic decay, not linear), or it's weighting by recency for the high inflation since 2020 (which may continue, or may not.)

traviswingo 6mo ago
Good eye. The ticker was using the observed rate of change over the two most recent data points, so it's actually biased towards the most recent inflation numbers. I've updated it to simply use the slope between the oldest (January 2000) and the most recent data. It won't be 100% accurate, but it's close enough to create a visual. And the number is always updated monthly with real data anyways.
- engineer_22 6mo ago
  Nice job, thoughtful execution