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Submitter here, I posted because I think there is a confluence of interesting macroeconomic factors at work here. Certainly, immigration policy is factoring int

Submitter here, I posted because I think there is a confluence of interesting macroeconomic factors at work here. Certainly, immigration policy is factoring into this, as the restaurant industry is highly dependent on such labor. At the same time, we're still seeing 55+ leave the labor force rapidly (~4M Boomers continue to retire per year, ~330k/month), leaving only younger prime working age cohort, which continues to shrink. At the same time, we're seeing youth unemployment around 6%, including those with a college degree [1]. As the piece mentions, young men are "staying on the sidelines" versus engage in low wage, low status restaurant work (in this context). So, who can hold out longer: businesses and industries historically underpaying workers but "desperate for them"? Or potential workers? Because as long as US immigration is constrained, as a business, you get to pick from who is on the soil at whatever that market clearing price for labor is. [1] Young men are struggling in a slowing job market, even if they have college degrees - https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/young-men-struggling-slowing-job-market-college-degree-rcna224482 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/young-men-strugglin... - August 13th, 2025 ("Men ages 23 to 30 are discovering that a bachelor's degree doesn't offer the same protection from unemployment that it used to")

alistairSH 7mo ago
leaving only younger prime working age cohort, which continues to shrink I don't think that's literally true? There are more Millennials (~22% of US population) now than Boomers (~20%) or Gen X (~19%). Same for Gen Z (~21%). Or do you mean that for whatever reason, Millenials aren't participating in the work force?
- toomuchtodo 7mo ago
  > The US labor force is quietly shrinking, not because of a weak economy, but because of a demographic squeeze. The population is aging, fewer younger workers are entering the workforce, and relative stability amongst prime-age workers (aged 25-54) can’t fully offset the gap. The result, according to the BLS projections, will be roughly 4.3 million fewer workers by 2034 than would be expected if participation rates held steady. > Each year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) develops 10-year projections about the labor market. The latest projections for the decade stretching from 2024 to 2034 show a steady decline of the overall labor force participation rate (LFPR), from 62.6% in 2024 to 61.1% by 2034, a 1.5 percentage point drop over a decade. Given the size of the US labor market, that 1.5 percentage point decline represents roughly 4.3 million fewer people who are either employed or actively seeking work, relative to 2024 participation levels. > The projections point to a demographic squeeze on the US labor market. As the population ages, workers move into older age groups where participation is lower. At the same time, fewer younger workers are entering the labor market, and prime-age participation rates decline slightly. Even with strong participation among prime-age workers and later retirements among older adults, the population is gradually shifting toward age groups with lower structural participation. The result is a slow but persistent decline in the overall LFPR. https://web.archive.org/web/20260407201640/https://d341ezm4iqaae0.cloudfront.net/hiringlaborg/2026/04/06165103/LFPR2004-2034-1024x717.png https://web.archive.org/web/20260407201640/https://d341ezm4i... The Demographic Squeeze: Why Labor Force Participation is Projected to Fall Through 2034 - https://www.hiringlab.org/2026/04/07/why-labor-force-participation-is-projected-to-fall-through-2034/ https://www.hiringlab.org/2026/04/07/why-labor-force-partici... - April 7th, 2026 Our Labor Force Demographics Are Getting Worse - https://www.aei.org/domestic-policy/our-labor-force-demographics-are-getting-worse/ https://www.aei.org/domestic-policy/our-labor-force-demograp... - January 23rd, 2026 The Rising Storm: One Year Later - https://lightcast.io/resources/blog/the-rising-storm-one-year-later https://lightcast.io/resources/blog/the-rising-storm-one-yea... - Published on Jan 15, 2026, Updated on Mar 6, 2026 The Rising Storm: Building a Future-Ready Workforce to Withstand the Looming Labor Shortage [pdf] - https://www.datocms-assets.com/62658/1761154208-the_rising_storm_lightcast_oct_25.pdf https://www.datocms-assets.com/62658/1761154208-the_rising_s... - 2024 (think in systems)
- jerlam 7mo ago
  Millenials (and some Gen X) have the highest participation rate since 2001: > By contrast, participation among “prime-age” workers (25–54) has held relatively steady, averaging 83.6% since January 2024 and registering 83.8% in March 2026. It hit 84.0% in January, the highest since March 2001, with the current rate just shy of that recent peak.
drillsteps5 7mo ago
> t the same time, we're still seeing 55+ leave the labor force rapidly (~4M Boomers continue to retire per year, ~330k/month) Youngest Gen X are 46, oldest are 65. Can we stop with this "retiring boomers" thing?
- toomuchtodo 7mo ago
  Total Boomer cohort doesn't reach at least 65 until 2029-2030 per the US Census. One does not qualify for Medicare until 65. It matters because 55+ working age population cohort is load bearing in the US labor force at the moment. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/by-2030-all-baby-boomers-will-be-age-65-or-older.html https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/by-2030-all-b... https://www.accurate.com/blog/how-the-retirement-boom-has-impacted-hr-and-recruiting/ https://www.accurate.com/blog/how-the-retirement-boom-has-im... Are Older Workers Propping Up The U.S. Economy? - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531829-older-workers-propping-up-us-economy https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531829-older-workers-propp... | https://archive.today/sKeyE https://archive.today/sKeyE - August 9th, 2022 > There are now 20 million more 55+ employed than there were in 2000, an equivalent of the entire workforce of Spain. This unprecedented demographic / employment transition is worth a closer look. As the second chart shows, some of this increase is due to the rising population of Americans over 55 years of age - an increase of 42 million. In 2000, 30% of those 55 and older were employed. Today, over 37% are employed - a significant increase in the percentage of 55+ people who are working. In 2000, only 17.6% of the 55 and older populace had a job. Now the percentage is 37.5% A 20% increase in the percentage of 55+ who are employed in a 20-year span is unprecedented. If the percentage of employed 55+ had stayed the same, there would only be 17 million 55+ workers today. Instead, there are over 37 million. This raises a question: why are so many older workers continuing to work longer than they did in 1990 and 2000? (obviously, older workers are continuing to work because they cannot afford not to, although I'm sure there is some amount of folks who continue to work despite not financially needing to)
  - drillsteps5 7mo ago
    Even if you define Gen X birth years starting at 1965 (and not 1961 as some do), their oldest are already 61. So anybody between 55 and 61 is a Gen X, not a boomer. And for the 55+ group employment participation rate has been decreasing. Which does not mean that "boomers are retiring", it's Gen X's turn now.
panny 7mo ago
>As the piece mentions, young men are "staying on the sidelines" versus engage in low wage, low status restaurant work (in this context). Why do you think young men would work at a restaurant? They don't make tips the way pretty young girls do. Restaurants certainly don't pay a living wage. Have you tried ending tip culture? If you did that, you might find more young men willing to work there and more patrons willing to eat there once the expectation of 30% tips are gone.
- toomuchtodo 7mo ago
  Will young men support progressive policy? Their only chance at economic success in a punishing macro? To be determined.
  - bluefirebrand 7mo ago
    The last 15 or so years of progressive politics are doing nothing for young men except demand they be "allies" so it's absolutely not surprising that young men have largely moved Right The Right is promising to make them great. It may be a lie, but it's a better message than what the Left has for them Edit: and before you get the wrong idea, I'm pretty progressive. I have consistently voted left my entire life. This is stuff I view as weakness on my own side, not something I'm projecting on my opponents
    - toomuchtodo 7mo ago
      Organizing and unionizing, focusing on affordability, etc are what I’m referring to. “Good manufacturing jobs” ain’t coming back. If you want a good job today, it’s only coming through collective action to push wages up to living wages. There won’t be some magic that instantiates millions of good jobs for young men needing them, and even those with degrees are facing peril and economic insecurity. The jobs that exist are the jobs young men have to crank towards livability. Universal healthcare is a component of affordability, especially as it relates to family forming and the cost of US healthcare. With structural demographics what they are, and labor slowly becoming more scarce year after year, the time is right. They took their chance on the Right, and polling shows some amount of buyer’s remorse. https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/economy/young-men-joblessness https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/economy/young-men-joblessness
jjav 7mo ago
> At the same time, we're still seeing 55+ leave the labor force rapidly It's about not being able to find any employment due to age discrimination, not really "retirement", which is an euphemism.

alistairSH 7mo ago

leaving only younger prime working age cohort, which continues to shrink I don't think that's literally true? There are more Millennials (~22% of US population) now than Boomers (~20%) or Gen X (~19%). Same for Gen Z (~21%). Or do you mean that for whatever reason, Millenials aren't participating in the work force?

toomuchtodo 7mo ago
> The US labor force is quietly shrinking, not because of a weak economy, but because of a demographic squeeze. The population is aging, fewer younger workers are entering the workforce, and relative stability amongst prime-age workers (aged 25-54) can’t fully offset the gap. The result, according to the BLS projections, will be roughly 4.3 million fewer workers by 2034 than would be expected if participation rates held steady. > Each year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) develops 10-year projections about the labor market. The latest projections for the decade stretching from 2024 to 2034 show a steady decline of the overall labor force participation rate (LFPR), from 62.6% in 2024 to 61.1% by 2034, a 1.5 percentage point drop over a decade. Given the size of the US labor market, that 1.5 percentage point decline represents roughly 4.3 million fewer people who are either employed or actively seeking work, relative to 2024 participation levels. > The projections point to a demographic squeeze on the US labor market. As the population ages, workers move into older age groups where participation is lower. At the same time, fewer younger workers are entering the labor market, and prime-age participation rates decline slightly. Even with strong participation among prime-age workers and later retirements among older adults, the population is gradually shifting toward age groups with lower structural participation. The result is a slow but persistent decline in the overall LFPR. https://web.archive.org/web/20260407201640/https://d341ezm4iqaae0.cloudfront.net/hiringlaborg/2026/04/06165103/LFPR2004-2034-1024x717.png https://web.archive.org/web/20260407201640/https://d341ezm4i... The Demographic Squeeze: Why Labor Force Participation is Projected to Fall Through 2034 - https://www.hiringlab.org/2026/04/07/why-labor-force-participation-is-projected-to-fall-through-2034/ https://www.hiringlab.org/2026/04/07/why-labor-force-partici... - April 7th, 2026 Our Labor Force Demographics Are Getting Worse - https://www.aei.org/domestic-policy/our-labor-force-demographics-are-getting-worse/ https://www.aei.org/domestic-policy/our-labor-force-demograp... - January 23rd, 2026 The Rising Storm: One Year Later - https://lightcast.io/resources/blog/the-rising-storm-one-year-later https://lightcast.io/resources/blog/the-rising-storm-one-yea... - Published on Jan 15, 2026, Updated on Mar 6, 2026 The Rising Storm: Building a Future-Ready Workforce to Withstand the Looming Labor Shortage [pdf] - https://www.datocms-assets.com/62658/1761154208-the_rising_storm_lightcast_oct_25.pdf https://www.datocms-assets.com/62658/1761154208-the_rising_s... - 2024 (think in systems)
jerlam 7mo ago
Millenials (and some Gen X) have the highest participation rate since 2001: > By contrast, participation among “prime-age” workers (25–54) has held relatively steady, averaging 83.6% since January 2024 and registering 83.8% in March 2026. It hit 84.0% in January, the highest since March 2001, with the current rate just shy of that recent peak.

drillsteps5 7mo ago

> t the same time, we're still seeing 55+ leave the labor force rapidly (~4M Boomers continue to retire per year, ~330k/month) Youngest Gen X are 46, oldest are 65. Can we stop with this "retiring boomers" thing?

toomuchtodo 7mo ago
Total Boomer cohort doesn't reach at least 65 until 2029-2030 per the US Census. One does not qualify for Medicare until 65. It matters because 55+ working age population cohort is load bearing in the US labor force at the moment. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/by-2030-all-baby-boomers-will-be-age-65-or-older.html https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/by-2030-all-b... https://www.accurate.com/blog/how-the-retirement-boom-has-impacted-hr-and-recruiting/ https://www.accurate.com/blog/how-the-retirement-boom-has-im... Are Older Workers Propping Up The U.S. Economy? - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531829-older-workers-propping-up-us-economy https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531829-older-workers-propp... | https://archive.today/sKeyE https://archive.today/sKeyE - August 9th, 2022 > There are now 20 million more 55+ employed than there were in 2000, an equivalent of the entire workforce of Spain. This unprecedented demographic / employment transition is worth a closer look. As the second chart shows, some of this increase is due to the rising population of Americans over 55 years of age - an increase of 42 million. In 2000, 30% of those 55 and older were employed. Today, over 37% are employed - a significant increase in the percentage of 55+ people who are working. In 2000, only 17.6% of the 55 and older populace had a job. Now the percentage is 37.5% A 20% increase in the percentage of 55+ who are employed in a 20-year span is unprecedented. If the percentage of employed 55+ had stayed the same, there would only be 17 million 55+ workers today. Instead, there are over 37 million. This raises a question: why are so many older workers continuing to work longer than they did in 1990 and 2000? (obviously, older workers are continuing to work because they cannot afford not to, although I'm sure there is some amount of folks who continue to work despite not financially needing to)
- drillsteps5 7mo ago
  Even if you define Gen X birth years starting at 1965 (and not 1961 as some do), their oldest are already 61. So anybody between 55 and 61 is a Gen X, not a boomer. And for the 55+ group employment participation rate has been decreasing. Which does not mean that "boomers are retiring", it's Gen X's turn now.

panny 7mo ago

>As the piece mentions, young men are "staying on the sidelines" versus engage in low wage, low status restaurant work (in this context). Why do you think young men would work at a restaurant? They don't make tips the way pretty young girls do. Restaurants certainly don't pay a living wage. Have you tried ending tip culture? If you did that, you might find more young men willing to work there and more patrons willing to eat there once the expectation of 30% tips are gone.

toomuchtodo 7mo ago
Will young men support progressive policy? Their only chance at economic success in a punishing macro? To be determined.
- bluefirebrand 7mo ago
  The last 15 or so years of progressive politics are doing nothing for young men except demand they be "allies" so it's absolutely not surprising that young men have largely moved Right The Right is promising to make them great. It may be a lie, but it's a better message than what the Left has for them Edit: and before you get the wrong idea, I'm pretty progressive. I have consistently voted left my entire life. This is stuff I view as weakness on my own side, not something I'm projecting on my opponents
  - toomuchtodo 7mo ago
    Organizing and unionizing, focusing on affordability, etc are what I’m referring to. “Good manufacturing jobs” ain’t coming back. If you want a good job today, it’s only coming through collective action to push wages up to living wages. There won’t be some magic that instantiates millions of good jobs for young men needing them, and even those with degrees are facing peril and economic insecurity. The jobs that exist are the jobs young men have to crank towards livability. Universal healthcare is a component of affordability, especially as it relates to family forming and the cost of US healthcare. With structural demographics what they are, and labor slowly becoming more scarce year after year, the time is right. They took their chance on the Right, and polling shows some amount of buyer’s remorse. https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/economy/young-men-joblessness https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/economy/young-men-joblessness

jjav 7mo ago

> At the same time, we're still seeing 55+ leave the labor force rapidly It's about not being able to find any employment due to age discrimination, not really "retirement", which is an euphemism.