Yes, my primary point was that the current cost on the illegal market (which is what attracts criminal elements) is so ridiculously out of whack with the actual

Yes, my primary point was that the current cost on the illegal market (which is what attracts criminal elements) is so ridiculously out of whack with the actual cost of production that taxes would have to be massively high to drive a black market similar to what exists when it is illegal. Will there be some people still getting it 'illegally'? Sure, as you pointed out there is a black market for cigarettes, but it pales in profit comparison to markets that are entirely illegal, and cartels aren't going to be attracted to nickel and dime markets when they have so many other ways to make money. American organized crime may be involved in black market cigarettes, but that could also be viewed as a sign of them searching for new revenue streams as their old(er) ones get shut down or become less reliable. Organized crime also used to be involved in alcohol, not so much anymore yet it is still heavily taxed in most peoples eyes. Further, I assume that legal providers would need some sort of approval/licensing from the state. Illegal providers would not pursue that. So while they would save money dodging the licensing/tax issues they likely could not cost compete with legal producers as they are taking a greater risk they would want to be compensated for (i.e. arrest). The illegal producers would then be doing a risky activity (they wouldn't be shielded by the legality if there are rules around production/supply that they aren't following) and incurring costs that legal producers would not incur. Whether those costs offset the licensing/tax issues is unclear, but I suspect they would. I don't think your claim is preposterous (that taxes need to be kept in check), but I also am not convinced that taxes will be so high as to drive this kind of market. Time will tell since more states have recently introduced marijuana legalization (assuming the DEA doesn't go all gangbusters on said states).