Great question. Calibration specifically is about whether your confidence in an answer matches your accuracy, not whether you know the answer. Someone who knows

Great question. Calibration specifically is about whether your confidence in an answer matches your accuracy, not whether you know the answer. Someone who knows a lot but is always 90% confident would score poorly even if they're wrong 20% of the time, as an example. In terms of research, Tetlock's Expert Political Judgement and Superforecasting were the foundation. He did a 20 year study that showed domain experts were barely better than chance at long-range predictions. The Brier score was the standard metric for that research.