3 ms·

This product rides a hype wave. This is why it is crazy popular and successful. The situation there is akin to Viaweb - Viaweb also rode hype wave and code sit

by thesz 7mo ago

This product rides a hype wave. This is why it is crazy popular and successful. The situation there is akin to Viaweb - Viaweb also rode hype wave and code situation was awful as well (see PG's stories about fixing bugs during customer's issue reproduction theater). What did Viaweb's buyer do? They rewrote thing in C++. If history rhymes, then buyer of Anthropic would do something close to "rewrite it in C++" to the current Claude Code implementation.

nkohari 7mo ago
I don't disagree with your general premise that eventually it'll just be rewritten, but I have to push back on the idea that Anthropic will be acquired. Their most recent valuation was $380B, and even if they wanted to be acquired (which I doubt) essentially no company has the necessary capital.
- edschofield 7mo ago
  Any company worth more could (in principle) acquire it with a share swap [1]. Even a smaller company could buy it with an LBO [2]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_swap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_swap [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leveraged_buyout https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leveraged_buyout
  - fragmede 7mo ago
    Or debt financed, or any other financal black magic schemes.
- tedmiston 7mo ago
  > ... but I have to push back on the idea that Anthropic will be acquired. Their most recent valuation was $380B, and even if they wanted to be acquired (which I doubt) essentially no company has the necessary capital. isn't that pretty much why anthropic and openai are racing to IPO?
- thesz 7mo ago
  It is hard to find market shares of Viaweb and Yahoo at the time of Viaweb's purchase, the best I've found is that Viaweb was bought for 1/4 of Yahoo's net revenue at the time ($49M price/$203 net revenue in 1998). Viaweb was not profitable at the time of purchase, but it had about four people and quite modest hardware costs. While there are no companies with $1.5 trillions (4*$380B) of net revenue, the difference is that Anthropic is cash net-negative, has more than 4 people in staff (none of them are hungry artists like PG) and hardware use spendings, I think, are astronomical. They are cash net-negative because of hardware needed to train models. There should be more than one company able to offer good purchase terms to Anthropic's owners. I also think that Anthropic, just like OpenAI and most of other LLM companies and companies' departments, ride "test set leakage," hoping general public and investors do not understand. Their models do not generalize well, being unable to generate working code in Haskell [1] at the very least. [1] https://haskellforall.com/2026/03/a-sufficiently-detailed-spec-is-code https://haskellforall.com/2026/03/a-sufficiently-detailed-sp... PG's Viaweb had an awful code as a liability. Anthropic's Claude Code has an awful implementation (code) and produces awful code, with more liability than code written by human.
eloisant 7mo ago
This is also why they had to release it quickly. They got the first mover advantage but if they delayed to make its code better, a competitor could have taken the wave instead of them.
gitaarik 7mo ago
I haven't heard of anyone that's using vibe coding to rewrite what they have. Most of what I hear is to create new things, and to accelerate development of existing projects.

by thesz 7mo ago

nkohari 7mo ago

I don't disagree with your general premise that eventually it'll just be rewritten, but I have to push back on the idea that Anthropic will be acquired. Their most recent valuation was $380B, and even if they wanted to be acquired (which I doubt) essentially no company has the necessary capital.

edschofield 7mo ago
Any company worth more could (in principle) acquire it with a share swap [1]. Even a smaller company could buy it with an LBO [2]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_swap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_swap [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leveraged_buyout https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leveraged_buyout
- fragmede 7mo ago
  Or debt financed, or any other financal black magic schemes.
tedmiston 7mo ago
> ... but I have to push back on the idea that Anthropic will be acquired. Their most recent valuation was $380B, and even if they wanted to be acquired (which I doubt) essentially no company has the necessary capital. isn't that pretty much why anthropic and openai are racing to IPO?
thesz 7mo ago
It is hard to find market shares of Viaweb and Yahoo at the time of Viaweb's purchase, the best I've found is that Viaweb was bought for 1/4 of Yahoo's net revenue at the time ($49M price/$203 net revenue in 1998). Viaweb was not profitable at the time of purchase, but it had about four people and quite modest hardware costs. While there are no companies with $1.5 trillions (4*$380B) of net revenue, the difference is that Anthropic is cash net-negative, has more than 4 people in staff (none of them are hungry artists like PG) and hardware use spendings, I think, are astronomical. They are cash net-negative because of hardware needed to train models. There should be more than one company able to offer good purchase terms to Anthropic's owners. I also think that Anthropic, just like OpenAI and most of other LLM companies and companies' departments, ride "test set leakage," hoping general public and investors do not understand. Their models do not generalize well, being unable to generate working code in Haskell [1] at the very least. [1] https://haskellforall.com/2026/03/a-sufficiently-detailed-spec-is-code https://haskellforall.com/2026/03/a-sufficiently-detailed-sp... PG's Viaweb had an awful code as a liability. Anthropic's Claude Code has an awful implementation (code) and produces awful code, with more liability than code written by human.

eloisant 7mo ago

This is also why they had to release it quickly. They got the first mover advantage but if they delayed to make its code better, a competitor could have taken the wave instead of them.

gitaarik 7mo ago

I haven't heard of anyone that's using vibe coding to rewrite what they have. Most of what I hear is to create new things, and to accelerate development of existing projects.