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I like the progress but I think the article oversell the hope here. Its not about getting to 10s of crossings a day. The previous volume of ships was 130-140 pe
by xphos 6mo ago
I like the progress but I think the article oversell the hope here. Its not about getting to 10s of crossings a day. The previous volume of ships was 130-140 per day. If the capacity of the strait is down +90% their is going to be long lasting problems. I've seen as many as 3 million of the ~20 million barrals might be getting through. The 17m/day deficit has to come from somewhere i.e more coal or increased oil prices or reduced World GDP by reduced production/consumption.
Also Iran's leverage is in the reduced world volume. If they allow 110 Ships to go through but block the 20 american-aligned (vastly over stated US-bound ships are not anywhere near 20/day). Than the problem for the US is minimized because that would stablize oil prices a reduction of 2% of the world supply might be managable 20% is very hard to make up. Being seperated from the US does not = safety because Iran's leverage is the world shock that will effect the US last. The US is net exporter of Oil. They also import a ton of oil from other nations though due to the Jones act (temporarily on hold). Oil is a world market if cheap oil flows Iran's leverage is gone.
- soared 6mo agoSeems reasonable that the blockade also means big negative impact on X random country -> that country pressures or builds distaste for US. May be an effective way to further sway the distaste for the US across the world.