> science still relies on p-values, isn't it a flawed methodology? one can do better than that, there are widely known methods Not generally, no. When there ar

> science still relies on p-values, isn't it a flawed methodology? one can do better than that, there are widely known methods Not generally, no. When there are better methods, of course they are used. > You can do better sometimes just because you are not social institution. I'm not sure what that means. Again, if something is probabilistically the best, by definition it's possbile to do better sometimes, but only by chance. > But if I watched public debates about possible causal link between smoking and cancer at 1950s, maybe even in 1940s. I could do better with pretty high probability. But you're selecting your experiment after the fact. If you're complaining about p-hacking, this is probably the crudest form of it. > I read different experts in economics, and they miss the mark all the time Yes, nonlinear systems are pretty much impossible to predict. Of course they miss the mark a lot. The question is, can you come up with a system that misses the mark less? If you could, that would be the new economics. > I'm working on it as well. For example, right now I'm into systems analysis. I would suggest studying some mathematics, because your point above about p values tells me you're unfamiliar with some basics. You might have heard some stuff, but you can't really understand it until you actually study the subject. > If you want to keep your thinking sharp, you need to become a guru of debates I just hope you understand the difference between debates that can move a field of knowledge forward - those are typically conducted in writing and over a long time, and all parties have already spent years becoming experts in the field - and the sort of debates we have at the Oxford Union, which are a sport. It's a fine hobby, and you can become better at it, but it's not really "the way" to sharpen your mind. It's a skill you can develop like in any sport. There are no shortcuts. You have to put it in the years to really know a subject, and then you can learn from others who've studied other subjects.