5 ms·

none of those three people will be president

by zzzeek 7mo ago

Jensson 7mo ago
Then you can get rich by betting against it, so most people seem to disagree with you. And in a democracy most people decide who the next leader will be. https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
- vntok 7mo ago
  Why would you assume that the parent (1) has a gambling addiction, (2) has enough side money they can lock into a far-away bet and (3) wants to place a bet that will more than probably never pay anyway because it won't be insured nor escrowed by a trusted third party? Buying or selling stocks of companies owned by MAGA henchmen is probably much safer.
  - Jensson 7mo ago
    > Buying or selling stocks of companies owned by MAGA henchmen is probably much safer. Not if you are 100% sure, which the poster seemed to be. Its not gambling if its a sure case. So you saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with the person. > wants to place a bet that will more than probably never pay anyway because it won't be insured nor escrowed by a trusted third party? Betting sites are trusted third parties. Anyway, I wasn't telling him to bet on it. My point is that it is weird to say those for sure wont be the next president when most bettors are betting on those being the next president. You saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with him as well.
    - vntok 7mo ago
      > Not if you are 100% sure, which the poster seemed to be. Its not gambling if its a sure case. So you saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with the person. This is incorrect. You can be sure, certain even, of a specific outcome, and yet still be scammed out of your money by the entity that took your bet. > Betting sites are trusted third parties. No they aren't, lol. Of course they aren't. Many are illegal, most operate from shady jurisdictions, all have unclear T&Cs and so on.
- rawgabbit 7mo ago
  If I interpret the odds correctly the site is saying Newsom has 22% chance and Vance has 20% chance. These odds seem rather low.
  - Jensson 7mo ago
    Still above 50% chance one of the 3 people I mentioned will become next president according to the betting odds.
- zzzeek 7mo ago
  betting markets aren't "most people"

none of those three people will be president

by zzzeek 7mo ago

none of those three people will be president

Then you can get rich by betting against it, so most people seem to disagree with you. And in a democracy most people decide who the next leader will be. https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics

deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
vntok 7mo ago
Why would you assume that the parent (1) has a gambling addiction, (2) has enough side money they can lock into a far-away bet and (3) wants to place a bet that will more than probably never pay anyway because it won't be insured nor escrowed by a trusted third party? Buying or selling stocks of companies owned by MAGA henchmen is probably much safer.
- Jensson 7mo ago
  > Buying or selling stocks of companies owned by MAGA henchmen is probably much safer. Not if you are 100% sure, which the poster seemed to be. Its not gambling if its a sure case. So you saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with the person. > wants to place a bet that will more than probably never pay anyway because it won't be insured nor escrowed by a trusted third party? Betting sites are trusted third parties. Anyway, I wasn't telling him to bet on it. My point is that it is weird to say those for sure wont be the next president when most bettors are betting on those being the next president. You saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with him as well.
  - vntok 7mo ago
    > Not if you are 100% sure, which the poster seemed to be. Its not gambling if its a sure case. So you saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with the person. This is incorrect. You can be sure, certain even, of a specific outcome, and yet still be scammed out of your money by the entity that took your bet. > Betting sites are trusted third parties. No they aren't, lol. Of course they aren't. Many are illegal, most operate from shady jurisdictions, all have unclear T&Cs and so on.
rawgabbit 7mo ago
If I interpret the odds correctly the site is saying Newsom has 22% chance and Vance has 20% chance. These odds seem rather low.
- Jensson 7mo ago
  Still above 50% chance one of the 3 people I mentioned will become next president according to the betting odds.
zzzeek 7mo ago
betting markets aren't "most people"