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> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults Betting says next president will be Gavin Newsom or JD Vance or Marco Rubio, so I wouldn't bet on

by Jensson 7mo ago

> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults Betting says next president will be Gavin Newsom or JD Vance or Marco Rubio, so I wouldn't bet on that happening anytime soon. It is weird how so bad people bubble up in american politics.

zzzeek 7mo ago
none of those three people will be president
- Jensson 7mo ago
  Then you can get rich by betting against it, so most people seem to disagree with you. And in a democracy most people decide who the next leader will be. https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
  - deleted 7mo ago
    [deleted]
  - vntok 7mo ago
    Why would you assume that the parent (1) has a gambling addiction, (2) has enough side money they can lock into a far-away bet and (3) wants to place a bet that will more than probably never pay anyway because it won't be insured nor escrowed by a trusted third party? Buying or selling stocks of companies owned by MAGA henchmen is probably much safer.
    - Jensson 7mo ago
      > Buying or selling stocks of companies owned by MAGA henchmen is probably much safer. Not if you are 100% sure, which the poster seemed to be. Its not gambling if its a sure case. So you saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with the person. > wants to place a bet that will more than probably never pay anyway because it won't be insured nor escrowed by a trusted third party? Betting sites are trusted third parties. Anyway, I wasn't telling him to bet on it. My point is that it is weird to say those for sure wont be the next president when most bettors are betting on those being the next president. You saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with him as well.
      - vntok 7mo ago
        > Not if you are 100% sure, which the poster seemed to be. Its not gambling if its a sure case. So you saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with the person. This is incorrect. You can be sure, certain even, of a specific outcome, and yet still be scammed out of your money by the entity that took your bet. > Betting sites are trusted third parties. No they aren't, lol. Of course they aren't. Many are illegal, most operate from shady jurisdictions, all have unclear T&Cs and so on.
  - rawgabbit 7mo ago
    If I interpret the odds correctly the site is saying Newsom has 22% chance and Vance has 20% chance. These odds seem rather low.
    - Jensson 7mo ago
      Still above 50% chance one of the 3 people I mentioned will become next president according to the betting odds.
  - zzzeek 7mo ago
    betting markets aren't "most people"
dyauspitr 7mo ago
I wish with all my heart it’s going to be Newsom. Perfectly center left just like I like it.
- Jensson 7mo ago
  He does seem wildly corrupt though with extreme exceptions in bills for his friends and backers, more than other politicians I've seen. He is probably better than Trump or JD Vance but that isn't saying much. I too mostly agree with his populist center takes, but that doesn't mean he is reasonable.
- feb012025 7mo ago
  I can assure you that no "center left" president will be fixing any problems in the middle east anytime soon
- hackable_sand 7mo ago
  Ugh Newsom should be elected to count all the grains of sand on the California coastline. He can be comped in trail mix and given an upturned boat for shelter.
  - dyauspitr 7mo ago
    He’s the only realist on the card with any chance of actually getting elected.
morgoo 7mo ago
We're 2 1/2 years away from the next election...
rsynnott 7mo ago
I flatly refuse to believe that people will vote for _JD Vance_. Trump, like him or loathe him (I’d be firmly in the ‘loathe’ camp) has a style/personality which is appealing to some people. Vance, by contrast, is a non-entity.

by Jensson 7mo ago

zzzeek 7mo ago

none of those three people will be president

Jensson 7mo ago
Then you can get rich by betting against it, so most people seem to disagree with you. And in a democracy most people decide who the next leader will be. https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
- vntok 7mo ago
  Why would you assume that the parent (1) has a gambling addiction, (2) has enough side money they can lock into a far-away bet and (3) wants to place a bet that will more than probably never pay anyway because it won't be insured nor escrowed by a trusted third party? Buying or selling stocks of companies owned by MAGA henchmen is probably much safer.
  - Jensson 7mo ago
    > Buying or selling stocks of companies owned by MAGA henchmen is probably much safer. Not if you are 100% sure, which the poster seemed to be. Its not gambling if its a sure case. So you saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with the person. > wants to place a bet that will more than probably never pay anyway because it won't be insured nor escrowed by a trusted third party? Betting sites are trusted third parties. Anyway, I wasn't telling him to bet on it. My point is that it is weird to say those for sure wont be the next president when most bettors are betting on those being the next president. You saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with him as well.
    - vntok 7mo ago
      > Not if you are 100% sure, which the poster seemed to be. Its not gambling if its a sure case. So you saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with the person. This is incorrect. You can be sure, certain even, of a specific outcome, and yet still be scammed out of your money by the entity that took your bet. > Betting sites are trusted third parties. No they aren't, lol. Of course they aren't. Many are illegal, most operate from shady jurisdictions, all have unclear T&Cs and so on.
- rawgabbit 7mo ago
  If I interpret the odds correctly the site is saying Newsom has 22% chance and Vance has 20% chance. These odds seem rather low.
  - Jensson 7mo ago
    Still above 50% chance one of the 3 people I mentioned will become next president according to the betting odds.
- zzzeek 7mo ago
  betting markets aren't "most people"

dyauspitr 7mo ago

I wish with all my heart it’s going to be Newsom. Perfectly center left just like I like it.

Jensson 7mo ago
He does seem wildly corrupt though with extreme exceptions in bills for his friends and backers, more than other politicians I've seen. He is probably better than Trump or JD Vance but that isn't saying much. I too mostly agree with his populist center takes, but that doesn't mean he is reasonable.
feb012025 7mo ago
I can assure you that no "center left" president will be fixing any problems in the middle east anytime soon
hackable_sand 7mo ago
Ugh Newsom should be elected to count all the grains of sand on the California coastline. He can be comped in trail mix and given an upturned boat for shelter.
- dyauspitr 7mo ago
  He’s the only realist on the card with any chance of actually getting elected.

morgoo 7mo ago

We're 2 1/2 years away from the next election...

rsynnott 7mo ago

I flatly refuse to believe that people will vote for _JD Vance_. Trump, like him or loathe him (I’d be firmly in the ‘loathe’ camp) has a style/personality which is appealing to some people. Vance, by contrast, is a non-entity.