8 ms·

The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults, will need to offer great concessions to Iran in order to extricate from the effects of a disastrous,

by zzzeek 7mo ago

The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults, will need to offer great concessions to Iran in order to extricate from the effects of a disastrous, illegal (both from a US as well as an intentional standpoint) and of course, completely, utterly failed war. And it might be just that Iran gets to be a permanent toll collector for the global economy.

vrganj 7mo ago
No matter who controls the US in the future, it will never go back to the position it once had globally. It's been actively harming it's allies, threatening them with invasion and conspiring with their enemies. The rest of the world cannot afford to give the American people the benefit of the doubt. After Trump I, there was hope it was just a fluke. Trump II is much worse and cements the unreliability of the American voting public.
- nozzlegear 7mo ago
  Never is a long time. Look at where Germany was after both WWI and WWII, and where it is now; it's demonstrably possible to cause irreparable damage to everyone around you, and then rise back to the top (multiple times!). The only questions are timeline and scale.
  - vrganj 7mo ago
    Germany wasn't and isn't the world's hegemon. I don't think that position is recoverable the same way.
    - nozzlegear 7mo ago
      It was the hegemon of Europe though, and it is once again – at least economically. I don't know much about European culture to say how popular German pop culture is there though.
      - vrganj 7mo ago
        The "hegemon of Europe" was the "Franco-German engine" for the longest time. The engine has stalled though and the center of gravity is shifting East (Poland) and South (Spain, Italy). United in diversity, as is our motto.
  - evilduck 7mo ago
    You also have to consider the outside intervention forcibly imposed upon Germany, after being defeated in war both times, and how the first round of that contributed directly to WWII. It's not exactly a playbook to copy verbatim.
    - nozzlegear 7mo ago
      I'm on the record that America needs a third Reconstruction era.
  - stevenwoo 7mo ago
    Germany got a new type of government. The 2/3 required in USA for significant change will be insurmountable short of a disaster on order of second Great Depression since plurality of American voters can’t see past next paycheck, no Democrat that can win Presidential primary has any kind of revolutionary vision, it’s all muted, even Bernie got squashed by centrist voters eventually and he was not even that far to the left IMHO - he even stayed away from race or gender issues.
    - nozzlegear 7mo ago
      Hillary Clinton was to the left of Bernie Sanders in 2016, because free trade reduces global stratification and being against trade and immigration like Bernie was (and is) to protect American jobs is elitism.
      - ratrace 7mo ago
        [dead]
      - Our_Benefactors 7mo ago
        > Hillary Clinton was to the left of Bernie Sanders in 2016 No, this is so factually untrue as to be offensive. Hillary is a party stooge through and through, it’s why she was essentially installed as the 2016 dem candidate, in spite of voter preferences. They did Bernie dirty
        nozzlegear 7mo ago
        > Hillary is a party stooge through and through, it’s why she was essentially installed as the 2016 dem candidate, in spite of voter preferences. They did Bernie dirty No, this is so factually untrue as to be offensive. I caucused and volunteered for Bernie in 2016. He lost the primary vote fair and square, but he dragged himself and his supporters to the convention kicking and screaming as if there was some chance he could overcome a mathematical defeat. Superdelegates never even entered the equation. All he did was instill a conspiracy in his diehard supporters.
      - 7mo ago
  - rchaud 7mo ago
    Germany changed its constitution, banned its former ruling party, and actively explores and teaches their school kids about their crimes. The US on the other hand has a chunk of its electorate flying Confederate flags and voting for politicians who think US history textbooks should be more "pro-American".
    - nozzlegear 7mo ago
      I'm not saying the country is perfect right now. We need a third Reconstruction.
      - mrguyorama 7mo ago
        We need a first reconstruction. We voted in Confederate sycophants ASAP to undo the very first, and spent the next 100 years pretending that slavery wasn't still happening. Yet again we have instead voted in people who for some reason think the literal aristocracy system of the antebellum south was anything worth protecting, despite the southern US being so dysfunctional it could barely support a war of it's own making.
  - feb012025 7mo ago
    Look at where Germany is now? They're a total non-player on the world stage. They completely kowtow to the US. Hardly a good example
    - nozzlegear 7mo ago
      > They're a total non-player on the world stage. It's the biggest economy in Europe and the de facto "head country" of the EU.
- bdbdbdb 7mo ago
  This. We all thought Trump was a crazy accident but the fact that he almost beat Biden, and then did beat Harris, means we just can't trust Americans to put sensible people in charge. Assuming a democrat takes the office next, they will inherit an economy in tatters, a failing infrastructure and a broken strategic alliance. They'll have four years to try to fix all of that while the republicans blame them for everything they've inherited, and four years from that the American people will have largely forgotten how Trump and his minions trailed dog shit all through the house and they'll vote for the next right wing dick that's been groomed for the job - probably Pete Hegseth, or Don Jr, or Mark Wayne Mullin
  - deleted 7mo ago
    [deleted]
  - SoftTalker 7mo ago
    Neither Biden nor Harris were sensible candidates. Democrats could have easily beat Trump by running a more appealing/less polarizing candidate. Didn't even have to be both. Obama was polarizing but he was appealing and he won comfortably.
    - adrian_b 7mo ago
      As a non-American I have always wondered about the criteria used by Americans to vote for their presidents. Clinton and Obama had various defects, but at least both of them looked like presidents and talked like presidents. On the other hand, both George Bush Junior and Trump (of course especially the latter), looked like clowns and talked like clowns. I have never understood their appeal to the masses. I understand the discontent of those who have voted against the Democrat "elites", but the fact that anyone could look at Trump and believe that he is the right man for the job seems unbelievable, regardless of how inept were his opponents.
      - donkyrf 7mo ago
        It's easier to understand if you live in America. Your reference to Democrat "elites" shows you have a hint of it... in this country that term never applies to a Republican -- even if they were born rich, went to Ivy League schools, and were handed a career and a professional network on a platter. It is almost _exclusively_ used to denigrate women, minorities, or men who support progressive causes.
- petre 7mo ago
  If Xi put a break on China's growth, Trump surely did throw US influence and soft power straight into the bin. The only winner is China.
sneak 7mo ago
> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults Everyone reasonable seems to be holding their breath in anticipation of this eventually happening. What if it doesn’t? What if all of this is a symptom of an underlying deterioration that extends deeper and beyond the current administration? It’s not Trump that made Americans A-OK with wars of aggression; Obama blew up as many kids using drones as Trump put into cages. What if the next few are the same, or worse? What do we do if this isn’t a temporary excursion but the new normal for the US and A?
- thyristan 7mo ago
  > What if it doesn’t? What if all of this is a symptom of an underlying deterioration that extends deeper and beyond the current administration? It’s not Trump that made Americans A-OK with wars of aggression; Obama blew up as many kids using drones as Trump put into cages. What if the next few are the same, or worse? What do we do if this isn’t a temporary excursion but the new normal for the US and A? In the cold war, there was the "Evil East" and the "Good West", and this opposition forced at least some token "goodness" and a certain predictable behavior on both sides. It also forced both sides to have some firm principles they adhere to. Now the cold war is over, and while it did change more in the formerly East, the West, at least in some parts, also learned a few things. Among them that principles are negotiable, especially without a closed opposing bloc with the opposite principles. Doing business with China and Russia not only made people rich, it also moved Western culture more towards the Eastern ones, more than anyone would like to admit. Starting to see things from the Eastern perspective also induced the West to over time to not just understand the former enemy better and learn the "good stuff". We started to find things like strong autocratic leadership, compromises on human rights, ignorance of international laws and treaties, and wars of aggression and conquest more acceptable and even preferable. So I don't think this is just temporary.
  - ted_bunny 7mo ago
    None of that is new or imported from the Asiatic Hordes. It's just more visible now.
lifestyleguru 7mo ago
> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults There is no way back, as there is no way back to the world before covid or before the 2008 global crisis. They say about Russian history "it was bad and then it got worse". Over and over, for hundreds of years. Vlad and Donnie are friends now.
Jensson 7mo ago
> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults Betting says next president will be Gavin Newsom or JD Vance or Marco Rubio, so I wouldn't bet on that happening anytime soon. It is weird how so bad people bubble up in american politics.
- zzzeek 7mo ago
  none of those three people will be president
  - Jensson 7mo ago
    Then you can get rich by betting against it, so most people seem to disagree with you. And in a democracy most people decide who the next leader will be. https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
    - deleted 7mo ago
      [deleted]
    - vntok 7mo ago
      Why would you assume that the parent (1) has a gambling addiction, (2) has enough side money they can lock into a far-away bet and (3) wants to place a bet that will more than probably never pay anyway because it won't be insured nor escrowed by a trusted third party? Buying or selling stocks of companies owned by MAGA henchmen is probably much safer.
      - Jensson 7mo ago
        > Buying or selling stocks of companies owned by MAGA henchmen is probably much safer. Not if you are 100% sure, which the poster seemed to be. Its not gambling if its a sure case. So you saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with the person. > wants to place a bet that will more than probably never pay anyway because it won't be insured nor escrowed by a trusted third party? Betting sites are trusted third parties. Anyway, I wasn't telling him to bet on it. My point is that it is weird to say those for sure wont be the next president when most bettors are betting on those being the next president. You saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with him as well.
jMyles 7mo ago
> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults This rings as "make America great again", just with a different mythology standing-in for "again". The US (or at least the US _state_) hasn't been in control by reasonable adults in over a century, or arguably ever. What is finally becoming obvious is that this particular landmass is much too large to be under the control of a single state, and now that we have instant communications and ubiquitous cameras, even the arguments (laid out eg in the federalist papers) are no longer dispositive. Calm and careful deprecation of the US as a state needs to top the new agenda.
b0rtb0rt 7mo ago
> when finally back in control by reasonable adults no one even knows who was really in control during the previous administration. quite a few idiotic and destructive policy changes were made during that administration too

by zzzeek 7mo ago

vrganj 7mo ago

No matter who controls the US in the future, it will never go back to the position it once had globally. It's been actively harming it's allies, threatening them with invasion and conspiring with their enemies. The rest of the world cannot afford to give the American people the benefit of the doubt. After Trump I, there was hope it was just a fluke. Trump II is much worse and cements the unreliability of the American voting public.

nozzlegear 7mo ago
Never is a long time. Look at where Germany was after both WWI and WWII, and where it is now; it's demonstrably possible to cause irreparable damage to everyone around you, and then rise back to the top (multiple times!). The only questions are timeline and scale.
- vrganj 7mo ago
  Germany wasn't and isn't the world's hegemon. I don't think that position is recoverable the same way.
  - nozzlegear 7mo ago
    It was the hegemon of Europe though, and it is once again – at least economically. I don't know much about European culture to say how popular German pop culture is there though.
    - vrganj 7mo ago
      The "hegemon of Europe" was the "Franco-German engine" for the longest time. The engine has stalled though and the center of gravity is shifting East (Poland) and South (Spain, Italy). United in diversity, as is our motto.
- evilduck 7mo ago
  You also have to consider the outside intervention forcibly imposed upon Germany, after being defeated in war both times, and how the first round of that contributed directly to WWII. It's not exactly a playbook to copy verbatim.
  - nozzlegear 7mo ago
    I'm on the record that America needs a third Reconstruction era.
- stevenwoo 7mo ago
  Germany got a new type of government. The 2/3 required in USA for significant change will be insurmountable short of a disaster on order of second Great Depression since plurality of American voters can’t see past next paycheck, no Democrat that can win Presidential primary has any kind of revolutionary vision, it’s all muted, even Bernie got squashed by centrist voters eventually and he was not even that far to the left IMHO - he even stayed away from race or gender issues.
  - nozzlegear 7mo ago
    Hillary Clinton was to the left of Bernie Sanders in 2016, because free trade reduces global stratification and being against trade and immigration like Bernie was (and is) to protect American jobs is elitism.
    - ratrace 7mo ago
      [dead]
    - Our_Benefactors 7mo ago
      > Hillary Clinton was to the left of Bernie Sanders in 2016 No, this is so factually untrue as to be offensive. Hillary is a party stooge through and through, it’s why she was essentially installed as the 2016 dem candidate, in spite of voter preferences. They did Bernie dirty
      - nozzlegear 7mo ago
        > Hillary is a party stooge through and through, it’s why she was essentially installed as the 2016 dem candidate, in spite of voter preferences. They did Bernie dirty No, this is so factually untrue as to be offensive. I caucused and volunteered for Bernie in 2016. He lost the primary vote fair and square, but he dragged himself and his supporters to the convention kicking and screaming as if there was some chance he could overcome a mathematical defeat. Superdelegates never even entered the equation. All he did was instill a conspiracy in his diehard supporters.
    - 7mo ago
- rchaud 7mo ago
  Germany changed its constitution, banned its former ruling party, and actively explores and teaches their school kids about their crimes. The US on the other hand has a chunk of its electorate flying Confederate flags and voting for politicians who think US history textbooks should be more "pro-American".
  - nozzlegear 7mo ago
    I'm not saying the country is perfect right now. We need a third Reconstruction.
    - mrguyorama 7mo ago
      We need a first reconstruction. We voted in Confederate sycophants ASAP to undo the very first, and spent the next 100 years pretending that slavery wasn't still happening. Yet again we have instead voted in people who for some reason think the literal aristocracy system of the antebellum south was anything worth protecting, despite the southern US being so dysfunctional it could barely support a war of it's own making.
- feb012025 7mo ago
  Look at where Germany is now? They're a total non-player on the world stage. They completely kowtow to the US. Hardly a good example
  - nozzlegear 7mo ago
    > They're a total non-player on the world stage. It's the biggest economy in Europe and the de facto "head country" of the EU.
bdbdbdb 7mo ago
This. We all thought Trump was a crazy accident but the fact that he almost beat Biden, and then did beat Harris, means we just can't trust Americans to put sensible people in charge. Assuming a democrat takes the office next, they will inherit an economy in tatters, a failing infrastructure and a broken strategic alliance. They'll have four years to try to fix all of that while the republicans blame them for everything they've inherited, and four years from that the American people will have largely forgotten how Trump and his minions trailed dog shit all through the house and they'll vote for the next right wing dick that's been groomed for the job - probably Pete Hegseth, or Don Jr, or Mark Wayne Mullin
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
- SoftTalker 7mo ago
  Neither Biden nor Harris were sensible candidates. Democrats could have easily beat Trump by running a more appealing/less polarizing candidate. Didn't even have to be both. Obama was polarizing but he was appealing and he won comfortably.
  - adrian_b 7mo ago
    As a non-American I have always wondered about the criteria used by Americans to vote for their presidents. Clinton and Obama had various defects, but at least both of them looked like presidents and talked like presidents. On the other hand, both George Bush Junior and Trump (of course especially the latter), looked like clowns and talked like clowns. I have never understood their appeal to the masses. I understand the discontent of those who have voted against the Democrat "elites", but the fact that anyone could look at Trump and believe that he is the right man for the job seems unbelievable, regardless of how inept were his opponents.
    - donkyrf 7mo ago
      It's easier to understand if you live in America. Your reference to Democrat "elites" shows you have a hint of it... in this country that term never applies to a Republican -- even if they were born rich, went to Ivy League schools, and were handed a career and a professional network on a platter. It is almost _exclusively_ used to denigrate women, minorities, or men who support progressive causes.
petre 7mo ago
If Xi put a break on China's growth, Trump surely did throw US influence and soft power straight into the bin. The only winner is China.

sneak 7mo ago

> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults Everyone reasonable seems to be holding their breath in anticipation of this eventually happening. What if it doesn’t? What if all of this is a symptom of an underlying deterioration that extends deeper and beyond the current administration? It’s not Trump that made Americans A-OK with wars of aggression; Obama blew up as many kids using drones as Trump put into cages. What if the next few are the same, or worse? What do we do if this isn’t a temporary excursion but the new normal for the US and A?

thyristan 7mo ago
> What if it doesn’t? What if all of this is a symptom of an underlying deterioration that extends deeper and beyond the current administration? It’s not Trump that made Americans A-OK with wars of aggression; Obama blew up as many kids using drones as Trump put into cages. What if the next few are the same, or worse? What do we do if this isn’t a temporary excursion but the new normal for the US and A? In the cold war, there was the "Evil East" and the "Good West", and this opposition forced at least some token "goodness" and a certain predictable behavior on both sides. It also forced both sides to have some firm principles they adhere to. Now the cold war is over, and while it did change more in the formerly East, the West, at least in some parts, also learned a few things. Among them that principles are negotiable, especially without a closed opposing bloc with the opposite principles. Doing business with China and Russia not only made people rich, it also moved Western culture more towards the Eastern ones, more than anyone would like to admit. Starting to see things from the Eastern perspective also induced the West to over time to not just understand the former enemy better and learn the "good stuff". We started to find things like strong autocratic leadership, compromises on human rights, ignorance of international laws and treaties, and wars of aggression and conquest more acceptable and even preferable. So I don't think this is just temporary.
- ted_bunny 7mo ago
  None of that is new or imported from the Asiatic Hordes. It's just more visible now.

lifestyleguru 7mo ago

> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults There is no way back, as there is no way back to the world before covid or before the 2008 global crisis. They say about Russian history "it was bad and then it got worse". Over and over, for hundreds of years. Vlad and Donnie are friends now.

Jensson 7mo ago

> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults Betting says next president will be Gavin Newsom or JD Vance or Marco Rubio, so I wouldn't bet on that happening anytime soon. It is weird how so bad people bubble up in american politics.

zzzeek 7mo ago
none of those three people will be president
- Jensson 7mo ago
  Then you can get rich by betting against it, so most people seem to disagree with you. And in a democracy most people decide who the next leader will be. https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
  - deleted 7mo ago
    [deleted]
  - vntok 7mo ago
    Why would you assume that the parent (1) has a gambling addiction, (2) has enough side money they can lock into a far-away bet and (3) wants to place a bet that will more than probably never pay anyway because it won't be insured nor escrowed by a trusted third party? Buying or selling stocks of companies owned by MAGA henchmen is probably much safer.
    - Jensson 7mo ago
      > Buying or selling stocks of companies owned by MAGA henchmen is probably much safer. Not if you are 100% sure, which the poster seemed to be. Its not gambling if its a sure case. So you saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with the person. > wants to place a bet that will more than probably never pay anyway because it won't be insured nor escrowed by a trusted third party? Betting sites are trusted third parties. Anyway, I wasn't telling him to bet on it. My point is that it is weird to say those for sure wont be the next president when most bettors are betting on those being the next president. You saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with him as well.

jMyles 7mo ago

> The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults This rings as "make America great again", just with a different mythology standing-in for "again". The US (or at least the US _state_) hasn't been in control by reasonable adults in over a century, or arguably ever. What is finally becoming obvious is that this particular landmass is much too large to be under the control of a single state, and now that we have instant communications and ubiquitous cameras, even the arguments (laid out eg in the federalist papers) are no longer dispositive. Calm and careful deprecation of the US as a state needs to top the new agenda.

b0rtb0rt 7mo ago

> when finally back in control by reasonable adults no one even knows who was really in control during the previous administration. quite a few idiotic and destructive policy changes were made during that administration too