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> Aren't they currently propped up by investor money? Are Chinese model shops propped up by investor money? Is Google? Open weights models are only 6 months b
by samusiam 6mo ago
> Aren't they currently propped up by investor money?
Are Chinese model shops propped up by investor money? Is Google?
Open weights models are only 6 months behind SOTA. If new model development suddenly stopped, and today's SOTA models suddenly disappeared, we would still have access to capable agents.
- qsera 6mo ago>we would still have access to capable agents. But they would be outdated, right? Would an agent that can only code in COBOL would be as useful today?
- iugtmkbdfil834 6mo agoBy six months. Surely, non-SOTA models can eventually get not outdated. And your argument ignores 'new model development suddenly stopped' aspect. If it stops, there is nothing be to be outdated to..
- lxgr 6mo ago> But they would be outdated, right? Outdated compared to what? In your counterfactual, VC funded agents don't exist anymore, no? Your argument, if I understand it correctly, is that they might somehow go away entirely when VC funding dries up, when more realistically they'll probably at most become twice as expensive or regress half a year in performance.
- Jensson 6mo ago> Outdated compared to what? In your counterfactual, VC funded agents don't exist anymore, no? Outdated compared to reality / humans, their knowledge cutoff is a year further behind every year they don't get updates. Humans continuously expands their knowledge, the models needs to keep up with that.
- loeg 6mo agoWell, the Chinese shops are propped up by the CCP instead.
- samusiam 6mo agoThat's true, but the "AI bubble bursts" scenario is usually tied to Western investors getting essentially margin-called. If that happens, the CCP won't suddenly stop their investment; Chinese models will most likely continue developing.