3 ms·

>The thing is, agents aren’t going away... Aren't they currently propped up by investor money? What happens when the investors realize the scam that it is and

by qsera 7mo ago

>The thing is, agents aren’t going away... Aren't they currently propped up by investor money? What happens when the investors realize the scam that it is and stop investing or start investing less...

samusiam 7mo ago
> Aren't they currently propped up by investor money? Are Chinese model shops propped up by investor money? Is Google? Open weights models are only 6 months behind SOTA. If new model development suddenly stopped, and today's SOTA models suddenly disappeared, we would still have access to capable agents.
- qsera 7mo ago
  >we would still have access to capable agents. But they would be outdated, right? Would an agent that can only code in COBOL would be as useful today?
  - iugtmkbdfil834 7mo ago
    By six months. Surely, non-SOTA models can eventually get not outdated. And your argument ignores 'new model development suddenly stopped' aspect. If it stops, there is nothing be to be outdated to..
  - lxgr 7mo ago
    > But they would be outdated, right? Outdated compared to what? In your counterfactual, VC funded agents don't exist anymore, no? Your argument, if I understand it correctly, is that they might somehow go away entirely when VC funding dries up, when more realistically they'll probably at most become twice as expensive or regress half a year in performance.
    - Jensson 7mo ago
      > Outdated compared to what? In your counterfactual, VC funded agents don't exist anymore, no? Outdated compared to reality / humans, their knowledge cutoff is a year further behind every year they don't get updates. Humans continuously expands their knowledge, the models needs to keep up with that.
- loeg 7mo ago
  Well, the Chinese shops are propped up by the CCP instead.
  - samusiam 7mo ago
    That's true, but the "AI bubble bursts" scenario is usually tied to Western investors getting essentially margin-called. If that happens, the CCP won't suddenly stop their investment; Chinese models will most likely continue developing.
xnx 7mo ago
> What happens when the investors realize the scam that it is and stop investing or start investing less.. Nvidia chips get a lot cheaper

by qsera 7mo ago

samusiam 7mo ago

> Aren't they currently propped up by investor money? Are Chinese model shops propped up by investor money? Is Google? Open weights models are only 6 months behind SOTA. If new model development suddenly stopped, and today's SOTA models suddenly disappeared, we would still have access to capable agents.

qsera 7mo ago
>we would still have access to capable agents. But they would be outdated, right? Would an agent that can only code in COBOL would be as useful today?
- iugtmkbdfil834 7mo ago
  By six months. Surely, non-SOTA models can eventually get not outdated. And your argument ignores 'new model development suddenly stopped' aspect. If it stops, there is nothing be to be outdated to..
- lxgr 7mo ago
  > But they would be outdated, right? Outdated compared to what? In your counterfactual, VC funded agents don't exist anymore, no? Your argument, if I understand it correctly, is that they might somehow go away entirely when VC funding dries up, when more realistically they'll probably at most become twice as expensive or regress half a year in performance.
  - Jensson 7mo ago
    > Outdated compared to what? In your counterfactual, VC funded agents don't exist anymore, no? Outdated compared to reality / humans, their knowledge cutoff is a year further behind every year they don't get updates. Humans continuously expands their knowledge, the models needs to keep up with that.
loeg 7mo ago
Well, the Chinese shops are propped up by the CCP instead.
- samusiam 7mo ago
  That's true, but the "AI bubble bursts" scenario is usually tied to Western investors getting essentially margin-called. If that happens, the CCP won't suddenly stop their investment; Chinese models will most likely continue developing.

xnx 7mo ago

> What happens when the investors realize the scam that it is and stop investing or start investing less.. Nvidia chips get a lot cheaper