3 ms·

Cost overruns are a great argument even if you ignore the massive time overruns, which you can't. All those cost overruns factor into the electricty price forev

by jmyeet 7mo ago

Cost overruns are a great argument even if you ignore the massive time overruns, which you can't. All those cost overruns factor into the electricty price forever. Flamanville has a 60 year lifespan for this reason and even then has an estimated cost of €138/MWh [1]. Compare that to Cestas at €108/MWh [2]. Go further south and Spain has recently been paying €25/MWh [3]. [1]: https://www.powermag.com/flamanville-3-europes-hard-won-nuclear-milestone/ https://www.powermag.com/flamanville-3-europes-hard-won-nucl... [2]: https://www.reuters.com/article/markets/currencies/new-french-solar-farm-europes-biggest-cheaper-than-new-nuclear-idUSKBN0TK5GV/ https://www.reuters.com/article/markets/currencies/new-frenc... [3]: https://ratedpower.com/blog/spanish-government-solar/ https://ratedpower.com/blog/spanish-government-solar/

amarant 7mo ago
Compare it to Swedish electricity prices in the winter which are around SEK 3/kWh, or roughly €300/MWh. Are you offering to cut my energy bill in half? Yes please!
- halper 7mo ago
  During the most expensive month in recent years, the price has (on average) been <150 öre/kWh. Like prices of dinosaur soup at the pump, the majority of the cost for an individual end consumer is not the electricity itself. On top of the market price, you pay fixed two fixed fees, transfer tariffs, surcharges, sales tax (moms), energy tax and other things I have forgotten.
- ViewTrick1002 7mo ago
  > Compare it to Swedish electricity prices in the winter which are around SEK 3/kWh, or roughly €300/MWh. The averge electricity price in SE3 this winter, which had nuclear outages, was €100-110/MWh. New built nuclear power requires €170-230/MWh for 40 years after the completion. Adding on taxes, VAT etc. means that to power the average Swedish home with new built nuclear power the average monthly bill needs to be €540. That is summer as winter. Using extremely CAPEX heavy nuclear power to fix problems existing a few percent of the year is economic lunacy.
  - amarant 7mo ago
    Where are you getting those numbers? I can't find a single source that quotes levelized cost of new nuclear above €150/MWH for newly constructed nuclear? Some put it below €100/MWH! Wikipedia for example puts it at $97/MWH https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_nuclear_power_plants https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_nuclear_power_pla...
    - ViewTrick1002 7mo ago
      Below €100/MWh is pure fantasy. The proposed subsidy scheme for the French EPR2 fleet is a €100/MWh CFD for 40 years and interest free loans. Summing up to ~€200/MWh in total. Then you have studies like this: https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/levelized-cost-of-energyplus-lcoeplus/ https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/levelized-cost-of-e... And like the Hinkley Point C CFD which is somewhere around €170 per MWh. It’s quite typical that you refer to the data from IPCC AR3 WG3. A study which came out in 2001. I suggest some curiosity and updating your priors to 2026 instead.
      - amarant 7mo ago
        Your source provided several numbers for nuclear. One is $34/MWH, which is a average cost of existing plants, another number is $169/MWH a number they describe as "Represents illustrative LCOE values for Vogtle nuclear plant’s units 3 and 4" Your source doesn't even support your statement! As for Hinckley, I have 2 objections. A you have cherry picked the least cost effective reactor in the world, and are trying to pass it off as typical, and B, it's levelized cost of energy is £128/MWh which translates to €146. Since we're apparently in the business of cherry picking, I chose Olkiluoto, with a levelized cost of €30/MWH. Unfortunately the anti-nuclear crowd in Europe has a very loose relationship with reality, but I think it's only prudent we stick to actual numbers here on HN. Relevant excerpt from the Wikipedia article: For example, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), based on undisclosed portfolio of projects, estimated nuclear power LCOE at €190-375/MWh which is up to 900% higher than the published LCOE of €30/MWh for an actual existing Olkiluoto nuclear power plant, even after accounting for construction delays in OL3 block, although this number is based on an average LCOE with new and old reactors. My data might be old, but at least it isn't made up!

by jmyeet 7mo ago

amarant 7mo ago

Compare it to Swedish electricity prices in the winter which are around SEK 3/kWh, or roughly €300/MWh. Are you offering to cut my energy bill in half? Yes please!

halper 7mo ago
During the most expensive month in recent years, the price has (on average) been <150 öre/kWh. Like prices of dinosaur soup at the pump, the majority of the cost for an individual end consumer is not the electricity itself. On top of the market price, you pay fixed two fixed fees, transfer tariffs, surcharges, sales tax (moms), energy tax and other things I have forgotten.
ViewTrick1002 7mo ago
> Compare it to Swedish electricity prices in the winter which are around SEK 3/kWh, or roughly €300/MWh. The averge electricity price in SE3 this winter, which had nuclear outages, was €100-110/MWh. New built nuclear power requires €170-230/MWh for 40 years after the completion. Adding on taxes, VAT etc. means that to power the average Swedish home with new built nuclear power the average monthly bill needs to be €540. That is summer as winter. Using extremely CAPEX heavy nuclear power to fix problems existing a few percent of the year is economic lunacy.
- amarant 7mo ago
  Where are you getting those numbers? I can't find a single source that quotes levelized cost of new nuclear above €150/MWH for newly constructed nuclear? Some put it below €100/MWH! Wikipedia for example puts it at $97/MWH https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_nuclear_power_plants https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_nuclear_power_pla...
  - ViewTrick1002 7mo ago
    Below €100/MWh is pure fantasy. The proposed subsidy scheme for the French EPR2 fleet is a €100/MWh CFD for 40 years and interest free loans. Summing up to ~€200/MWh in total. Then you have studies like this: https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/levelized-cost-of-energyplus-lcoeplus/ https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/levelized-cost-of-e... And like the Hinkley Point C CFD which is somewhere around €170 per MWh. It’s quite typical that you refer to the data from IPCC AR3 WG3. A study which came out in 2001. I suggest some curiosity and updating your priors to 2026 instead.
    - amarant 7mo ago
      Your source provided several numbers for nuclear. One is $34/MWH, which is a average cost of existing plants, another number is $169/MWH a number they describe as "Represents illustrative LCOE values for Vogtle nuclear plant’s units 3 and 4" Your source doesn't even support your statement! As for Hinckley, I have 2 objections. A you have cherry picked the least cost effective reactor in the world, and are trying to pass it off as typical, and B, it's levelized cost of energy is £128/MWh which translates to €146. Since we're apparently in the business of cherry picking, I chose Olkiluoto, with a levelized cost of €30/MWH. Unfortunately the anti-nuclear crowd in Europe has a very loose relationship with reality, but I think it's only prudent we stick to actual numbers here on HN. Relevant excerpt from the Wikipedia article: For example, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), based on undisclosed portfolio of projects, estimated nuclear power LCOE at €190-375/MWh which is up to 900% higher than the published LCOE of €30/MWh for an actual existing Olkiluoto nuclear power plant, even after accounting for construction delays in OL3 block, although this number is based on an average LCOE with new and old reactors. My data might be old, but at least it isn't made up!