4 ms·

No, what they should do instead is decentralize energy generation to the point that we're in cockroach mode. And if that means that transportation of goods gets

No, what they should do instead is decentralize energy generation to the point that we're in cockroach mode. And if that means that transportation of goods gets priority over transportation of people then so be it until we've figured that one out. The sooner we get this over with the better. Install as much solar and wind as we can and get to the point where we have a glut and then back the up with decentralized storage.

JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
> cockroach mode What does this mean?
- jacquesm 7mo ago
  Get decentralized to the point that no single point of failure will result in wholesale outages: resilient as cockroaches. You can't do that if you have interconnects that have to work for society to work. The centralized electrical grid was a great idea and it got us very far. But it is just too fragile. Much better if you can have many (millions) of points of generation, storage and consumption and a far more opportunistic level of interconnect.
  - consumer451 7mo ago
    Centralization of power distribution is a national security risk in every country. The only problem is that we have to convince the centralized power industries to give up their complete control of our local and global economies. I have been thinking about this for decades, as the path forward has been obvious for that long. Those in control just keep doubling down. It appears that they would rather destroy our ecosystems, and risk economic collapse, instead of just adjusting their investment strategies.
    - jacquesm 7mo ago
      Precisely. But if it isn't clear now then the only way it will become clear will be through catastrophe.
      - consumer451 7mo ago
        Then catastrophe it is! But seriously, that appears to be the trajectory.
        jacquesm 7mo ago
        Unfortunately, agreed. I once joked to some friends that the Mennonites would be the only people that would get through the next energy crisis without so much as blinking.
        randochatter 7mo ago
        As they don't depend on fossil fuels to power their businesses or lighting at home.
  - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
    > decentralized to the point that no single point of failure will result in wholesale outages This is a good goal. But it needs to be more rigorously defined. Autarky can be done. But then you need to accept North Korean living standards. > Much better if you can have many (millions) of points of generation, storage and consumption and a far more opportunistic level of interconnect Again, to a degree. You can't decentrally power a modern city. So that means either no more cities, which is expensive, or ruinously-expensive power in cities, which again, in practice, means de-industrialisation.
    - jacquesm 7mo ago
      > But then you need to accept North Korean living standards. I'm not sure that's true. > Again, to a degree. You can't decentrally power a modern city. I'm not sure that that is true either, but it will take a lot more work than to do this for less densely populated areas. In general I'm not sure if 'modern cities' are long term sustainable.
      - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
        > not sure that's true To be clear, I'm not either. But decentralisation requires sacrificing economies of scale. And total autarky is a proven failure. Between that and complete integration is probably a more-independent equilibrium for Europe. But it will require paying a price. > In general I'm not sure if 'modern cities' are long term sustainable Sure. Maybe. Until then, the economies that field them will call the shots. (Based on everything I've read, cities are far more sustainable than dispersed living.)
        jacquesm 7mo ago
        > But it will require paying a price. I don't doubt that it requires paying a price. The only relevant question is whether that price is substantially lower or substantially higher than continuing on our current track. I'm open to be convinced that it is higher but I strongly believe that it is lower because with increased fragility you're playing the dice and one day they'll come up in a way that hurts you. The more people there will be in those baskets that harder it will hurt. As for the future of cities: the internet has given us one thing: independence from having to go to cities to work. Combine that with the ridiculous energy expense on commuting and it seems like a complete no-brainer that we should just stop doing that. COVID has already shown us that this is far more possible than we ever thought it was.
  - kris_golden 7mo ago
    With centralized electrical generation, you get massive economies of scale. It would be very costly to duplicate generation when you can extend lines from a current grid so cheaply. The efficiency of large power plants also results in a reduced carbon footprint. Duplication would be paying much more for a decentralized grids, while producing less electricity from inputs at higher cost.
amarant 7mo ago
This sounds nice and all, but also very very hard in Scandinavia. Not impossible though, there's at least one guy who's done it! https://h2roadtrip.com/mr-hydrogen-sweden-lives-almost-a-decade-off-grid/ https://h2roadtrip.com/mr-hydrogen-sweden-lives-almost-a-dec... Rather extreme, but technically possible!
- jacquesm 7mo ago
  I did it in Canada where the winters and latitude are very comparable to Scandinavia.
  - amarant 7mo ago
    That very much depends on where in Canada you are! Canada is huge, and parts of it are further north than even Northern Sweden! But from what I understand most Canadians live in the southern end of the country, which is comparable to Germany. Stockholm is at ~60N for your reference
    - jacquesm 7mo ago
      Northern Ontario (St. Joseph's Island).
      - amarant 7mo ago
        According to Google, that's 46N, which puts you south of Paris(which is at 48N)! That's not comparable to Scandinavia at all! This video does a good job of illustrating just how much further north Europe is than most people think https://youtube.com/shorts/C7-t_Ya6gI4?si=3EnxpFce59-VZb8B https://youtube.com/shorts/C7-t_Ya6gI4?si=3EnxpFce59-VZb8B
        jacquesm 7mo ago
        Oh come off it. I'm North of Paris right now (and South of Sweden) and it is absolutely nothing Like Northern Ontario, which has a 3 month growth season and winter temperatures go below -40 on some days. Paris is smack in the sweet spot for the Atlantic conveyor.

JumpCrisscross 7mo ago

> cockroach mode What does this mean?

jacquesm 7mo ago
Get decentralized to the point that no single point of failure will result in wholesale outages: resilient as cockroaches. You can't do that if you have interconnects that have to work for society to work. The centralized electrical grid was a great idea and it got us very far. But it is just too fragile. Much better if you can have many (millions) of points of generation, storage and consumption and a far more opportunistic level of interconnect.
- consumer451 7mo ago
  Centralization of power distribution is a national security risk in every country. The only problem is that we have to convince the centralized power industries to give up their complete control of our local and global economies. I have been thinking about this for decades, as the path forward has been obvious for that long. Those in control just keep doubling down. It appears that they would rather destroy our ecosystems, and risk economic collapse, instead of just adjusting their investment strategies.
  - jacquesm 7mo ago
    Precisely. But if it isn't clear now then the only way it will become clear will be through catastrophe.
    - consumer451 7mo ago
      Then catastrophe it is! But seriously, that appears to be the trajectory.
      - jacquesm 7mo ago
        Unfortunately, agreed. I once joked to some friends that the Mennonites would be the only people that would get through the next energy crisis without so much as blinking.
        randochatter 7mo ago
        As they don't depend on fossil fuels to power their businesses or lighting at home.
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
  > decentralized to the point that no single point of failure will result in wholesale outages This is a good goal. But it needs to be more rigorously defined. Autarky can be done. But then you need to accept North Korean living standards. > Much better if you can have many (millions) of points of generation, storage and consumption and a far more opportunistic level of interconnect Again, to a degree. You can't decentrally power a modern city. So that means either no more cities, which is expensive, or ruinously-expensive power in cities, which again, in practice, means de-industrialisation.
  - jacquesm 7mo ago
    > But then you need to accept North Korean living standards. I'm not sure that's true. > Again, to a degree. You can't decentrally power a modern city. I'm not sure that that is true either, but it will take a lot more work than to do this for less densely populated areas. In general I'm not sure if 'modern cities' are long term sustainable.
    - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
      > not sure that's true To be clear, I'm not either. But decentralisation requires sacrificing economies of scale. And total autarky is a proven failure. Between that and complete integration is probably a more-independent equilibrium for Europe. But it will require paying a price. > In general I'm not sure if 'modern cities' are long term sustainable Sure. Maybe. Until then, the economies that field them will call the shots. (Based on everything I've read, cities are far more sustainable than dispersed living.)
      - jacquesm 7mo ago
        > But it will require paying a price. I don't doubt that it requires paying a price. The only relevant question is whether that price is substantially lower or substantially higher than continuing on our current track. I'm open to be convinced that it is higher but I strongly believe that it is lower because with increased fragility you're playing the dice and one day they'll come up in a way that hurts you. The more people there will be in those baskets that harder it will hurt. As for the future of cities: the internet has given us one thing: independence from having to go to cities to work. Combine that with the ridiculous energy expense on commuting and it seems like a complete no-brainer that we should just stop doing that. COVID has already shown us that this is far more possible than we ever thought it was.
- kris_golden 7mo ago
  With centralized electrical generation, you get massive economies of scale. It would be very costly to duplicate generation when you can extend lines from a current grid so cheaply. The efficiency of large power plants also results in a reduced carbon footprint. Duplication would be paying much more for a decentralized grids, while producing less electricity from inputs at higher cost.

amarant 7mo ago

This sounds nice and all, but also very very hard in Scandinavia. Not impossible though, there's at least one guy who's done it! https://h2roadtrip.com/mr-hydrogen-sweden-lives-almost-a-decade-off-grid/ https://h2roadtrip.com/mr-hydrogen-sweden-lives-almost-a-dec... Rather extreme, but technically possible!

jacquesm 7mo ago
I did it in Canada where the winters and latitude are very comparable to Scandinavia.
- amarant 7mo ago
  That very much depends on where in Canada you are! Canada is huge, and parts of it are further north than even Northern Sweden! But from what I understand most Canadians live in the southern end of the country, which is comparable to Germany. Stockholm is at ~60N for your reference
  - jacquesm 7mo ago
    Northern Ontario (St. Joseph's Island).
    - amarant 7mo ago
      According to Google, that's 46N, which puts you south of Paris(which is at 48N)! That's not comparable to Scandinavia at all! This video does a good job of illustrating just how much further north Europe is than most people think https://youtube.com/shorts/C7-t_Ya6gI4?si=3EnxpFce59-VZb8B https://youtube.com/shorts/C7-t_Ya6gI4?si=3EnxpFce59-VZb8B
      - jacquesm 7mo ago
        Oh come off it. I'm North of Paris right now (and South of Sweden) and it is absolutely nothing Like Northern Ontario, which has a 3 month growth season and winter temperatures go below -40 on some days. Paris is smack in the sweet spot for the Atlantic conveyor.