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It's worth noting that if you used the 2008 results as your 2012 prediction, you would have gotten 49/51 on this scale.
by brown9-2 14y ago
It's worth noting that if you used the 2008 results as your 2012 prediction, you would have gotten 49/51 on this scale.
- gwern 14y agoYeah, but if you simply predicted 2008, you'd get a mediocre Brier score on your state victory predictions (because it would punish you for getting 49 compared to everyone who got 50 or 51), and the RMSE is even worse: the margins were different and the electoral vote & popular vote very different from 2008.