5 ms·

Compare the price and carbon density of the French electricity grid with that of California to understand why that rebuttal is justified.

by cbmuser 6mo ago

toomuchtodo 6mo ago
France had to nationalize EDF due to the exorbitant cost of their nuclear fleet, and they cannot get a reactor built within reasonable capital costs. Spain plans to deprecate their remaining nuclear for renewables for similar reasons. California will achieve a low carbon generation profile for far cheaper than it cost France (refer to the Lazard LCOE data product I've cited in my other comment in this thread). EDF fleet upkeep will cost over 100 billion euros by 2035, court of auditors says - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/edf-fleet-upkeep-will-cost-over-100-billion-euros-by-2035-court-auditors-says-2025-11-17/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/edf-fleet-upkeep-wil... - November 17th, 2025 French utility EDF lifts cost estimate for new reactors to 67 billion euros - Les Echos - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/french-utility-edf-lifts-cost-estimate-new-reactors-67-bln-euros-les-echos-2024-03-04/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/french-utility-edf-l... - March 4th, 2024 Explainer-Why a French plan to take full control of EDF is no cure-all - https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/07/07/edf-nationalistion https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/07/07/edf-nationalistion - July 7th, 2022 Spain’s Nuclear Shutdown Set to Test Renewables Success Story - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-11/spain-s-nuclear-shutdown-set-to-test-renewables-success-story https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-11/spain-s-n... | https://archive.today/4fB7K https://archive.today/4fB7K - April 11th, 2025 (“Spain is a postcard, a glimpse into the future where you’re not going to need baseload generators from 8am to 5pm” with solar and wind providing all of the grid’s needs during that time, said Kesavarthiniy Savarimuthu, a European power markets analyst with BloombergNEF. Still, she said, there is a reasonable chance this goal may take longer than expected and “extending the life of the nuclear fleet can prove as an insurance for these delays.”) (My note: As of this comment, Spain has 7.12GW of nuclear generation capacity per ree.es, and assuming ~2GW/month deployment rate seen in Germany, could replace this capacity with solar and batteries in ~17 months; per Electricity Maps, only 15.45% of Spain's electrical generation over the last twelve months has been sourced from this nuclear: https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/ES/12mo/monthly https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/ES/12mo/monthly)
- adev_ 6mo ago
  > France had to nationalize EDF due to the exorbitant cost of their nuclear fleet That's just wrong. EDF nuclear fleet is highly profitable with around 92TWh exported in 2025 and more than 5 Billions of benefits for the country and the company. https://www.sfen.org/rgn/le-nucleaire-en-chiffres-923-twh-delectricite-exportes-2025-record-porte-hausse-production/ https://www.sfen.org/rgn/le-nucleaire-en-chiffres-923-twh-de... The reason EDF had to be nationalized is because the government used the company as a "price shield" to protect consumer against energy price rise on the European market in 2022 with a mechanism named TRV (Tarif Régulé vente). That digged up EDF dept tremendously. > Spain plans to deprecate their remaining nuclear for renewables for similar reasons Span deprecated their nuclear government because their current Socialist government is aligned with Ecologists that are, like everywhere in Europe, antinuclear. Additionally, the lack of spinning generator in Spain is currently partially what caused the Blackout in Spain in 2025 due to a lack of inertia in the system. > EDF fleet upkeep will cost over 100 billion euros by 2035, court of auditors says This is over 25 years and will prolong-ate the lifetime of the 56 reactors by 20 more years. These produce 70% of the country need in electricity. In comparison, the German energiewende cost 400 billions for 37% of electricity of 2025 produced by solar and wind. With production medium that will need to be entirely renewed in 20 years. > California will achieve a low carbon generation profile for far cheaper than it cost France (refer to the Lazard LCOE That is also wrong. Because LCOE calculation does not take into consideration the price of the grid consolidating necessary for renewable nor the necessity of backup generation in case of dunkleflaute.
  - Kon5ole 6mo ago
    >> France had to nationalize EDF due to the exorbitant cost of their nuclear fleet >That's just wrong. No, it's correct, the total costs of the 2022 bailout was almost 10bn, and that was to get control over a company that had over 50bn in debt. Furthermore it was discovered that the plants had neglected maintenance that had to be undertaken rightaway, that had nothing to do with the TRV. Of course, the TRV didn't help, it caused a loss of 18bn in 2022 on top of everything else, but things were bad already. So even if the mentioned 5 bn export now was pure profit - which is isn't - it would take 15-20 years to cover the bailout that has already taken place. The 100 billion of investments until 2035 is in addition to that. And they will have to sell their power on markets that will increasingly often have free electricity from solar and wind. How do you pay 1000 educated plant operators when electricity prices are negative? Unfortunately nuclear power isn't the kind of thing you can try and then walk away from when it turns out to be a bad idea. Which is likely the main reason it's still around.

Compare the price and carbon density of the French electricity grid with that of California to understand why that rebuttal is justified.

by cbmuser 6mo ago

Compare the price and carbon density of the French electricity grid with that of California to understand why that rebuttal is justified.

toomuchtodo 6mo ago

France had to nationalize EDF due to the exorbitant cost of their nuclear fleet, and they cannot get a reactor built within reasonable capital costs. Spain plans to deprecate their remaining nuclear for renewables for similar reasons. California will achieve a low carbon generation profile for far cheaper than it cost France (refer to the Lazard LCOE data product I've cited in my other comment in this thread). EDF fleet upkeep will cost over 100 billion euros by 2035, court of auditors says - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/edf-fleet-upkeep-will-cost-over-100-billion-euros-by-2035-court-auditors-says-2025-11-17/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/edf-fleet-upkeep-wil... - November 17th, 2025 French utility EDF lifts cost estimate for new reactors to 67 billion euros - Les Echos - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/french-utility-edf-lifts-cost-estimate-new-reactors-67-bln-euros-les-echos-2024-03-04/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/french-utility-edf-l... - March 4th, 2024 Explainer-Why a French plan to take full control of EDF is no cure-all - https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/07/07/edf-nationalistion https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/07/07/edf-nationalistion - July 7th, 2022 Spain’s Nuclear Shutdown Set to Test Renewables Success Story - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-11/spain-s-nuclear-shutdown-set-to-test-renewables-success-story https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-11/spain-s-n... | https://archive.today/4fB7K https://archive.today/4fB7K - April 11th, 2025 (“Spain is a postcard, a glimpse into the future where you’re not going to need baseload generators from 8am to 5pm” with solar and wind providing all of the grid’s needs during that time, said Kesavarthiniy Savarimuthu, a European power markets analyst with BloombergNEF. Still, she said, there is a reasonable chance this goal may take longer than expected and “extending the life of the nuclear fleet can prove as an insurance for these delays.”) (My note: As of this comment, Spain has 7.12GW of nuclear generation capacity per ree.es, and assuming ~2GW/month deployment rate seen in Germany, could replace this capacity with solar and batteries in ~17 months; per Electricity Maps, only 15.45% of Spain's electrical generation over the last twelve months has been sourced from this nuclear: https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/ES/12mo/monthly https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/ES/12mo/monthly)

adev_ 6mo ago
> France had to nationalize EDF due to the exorbitant cost of their nuclear fleet That's just wrong. EDF nuclear fleet is highly profitable with around 92TWh exported in 2025 and more than 5 Billions of benefits for the country and the company. https://www.sfen.org/rgn/le-nucleaire-en-chiffres-923-twh-delectricite-exportes-2025-record-porte-hausse-production/ https://www.sfen.org/rgn/le-nucleaire-en-chiffres-923-twh-de... The reason EDF had to be nationalized is because the government used the company as a "price shield" to protect consumer against energy price rise on the European market in 2022 with a mechanism named TRV (Tarif Régulé vente). That digged up EDF dept tremendously. > Spain plans to deprecate their remaining nuclear for renewables for similar reasons Span deprecated their nuclear government because their current Socialist government is aligned with Ecologists that are, like everywhere in Europe, antinuclear. Additionally, the lack of spinning generator in Spain is currently partially what caused the Blackout in Spain in 2025 due to a lack of inertia in the system. > EDF fleet upkeep will cost over 100 billion euros by 2035, court of auditors says This is over 25 years and will prolong-ate the lifetime of the 56 reactors by 20 more years. These produce 70% of the country need in electricity. In comparison, the German energiewende cost 400 billions for 37% of electricity of 2025 produced by solar and wind. With production medium that will need to be entirely renewed in 20 years. > California will achieve a low carbon generation profile for far cheaper than it cost France (refer to the Lazard LCOE That is also wrong. Because LCOE calculation does not take into consideration the price of the grid consolidating necessary for renewable nor the necessity of backup generation in case of dunkleflaute.
- Kon5ole 6mo ago
  >> France had to nationalize EDF due to the exorbitant cost of their nuclear fleet >That's just wrong. No, it's correct, the total costs of the 2022 bailout was almost 10bn, and that was to get control over a company that had over 50bn in debt. Furthermore it was discovered that the plants had neglected maintenance that had to be undertaken rightaway, that had nothing to do with the TRV. Of course, the TRV didn't help, it caused a loss of 18bn in 2022 on top of everything else, but things were bad already. So even if the mentioned 5 bn export now was pure profit - which is isn't - it would take 15-20 years to cover the bailout that has already taken place. The 100 billion of investments until 2035 is in addition to that. And they will have to sell their power on markets that will increasingly often have free electricity from solar and wind. How do you pay 1000 educated plant operators when electricity prices are negative? Unfortunately nuclear power isn't the kind of thing you can try and then walk away from when it turns out to be a bad idea. Which is likely the main reason it's still around.