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Didn't Nate Silver say that was the most likely split? There was a post about it on HN for like the past 2 days. Edit: The confusion is probably that Silver w
by thedufer 14y ago
Didn't Nate Silver say that was the most likely split? There was a post about it on HN for like the past 2 days.
Edit: The confusion is probably that Silver was reporting the average electoral split as his prediction, when the mode is more important in what you're talking about. His average was almost never a number that was actually possible, since he was quoting them to the nearest 1/10th of a vote, so its kind of unfair to punish him for not getting it exactly right.
- interconnector 14y agoYou're right, I didn't realize Nate Silver was using an average. Also after reading the article, it looks like not just predictions for the 2012 presidential electoral vote, but other votes such as the Senate races are also being compared.
- waterlesscloud 14y agoOn his Electoral Vote histogram, he'd had 332 as a big spike for weeks. The day before the election it was over 20% for that one outcome.