4 ms·

It's mainly about budget, the US and China spend more than Europe. It looks like the next generation will be reusable though, there are a few programs to that

It's mainly about budget, the US and China spend more than Europe. It looks like the next generation will be reusable though, there are a few programs to that effect, both from established players and "new space" startups.

JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
> looks like the next generation will be reusable To the extent original Falcon 9 and earlier Chinese rockets were. It will be obsolete on release.
panick21_ 6mo ago
Sure nebulus 'next generation' is going to be reusable. But it cost at least 5 billion $ to build Ariane 5. And it took 10 years. And as of yet, we are nowhere remotly close to even get the political process started for a next geneation rocket. There are some research project and research, but it's not close. As for startups, none of them have even a working small vehicle. And small launch is a horrible buissness model that basically every company runs away from as fast away as they can burn investor money. Most go bust. Euroean startups are 10 years late and fight in a very small markets with lots of competition.
- nickserv 6mo ago
  Ariane 6 started operations less than a year ago, and already development is under way for the next generation. Funding is partly coming from the EU, so the political process has very much started. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_Next https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_Next I'm not disputing the fact that the EU is behind the US and China, but again the EU budget is way below. Given the financial limitations ESA is actually quite capable.
  - panick21_ 6mo ago
    Before Ariane 6 there were also many already existing programs that were independent. Ariane 6 still needed a very specific coming together politically and vote for development. So yes, there is research going on, and certain program to develop components. But that is a very long way away from an actual concrete proposal to develop a real new rocket. The Vinci engine for example started in the 90s and only flew first time with Ariane 6. So you could have said in 2002 'Ariane 6' is in development. The question is when do the politicians get together and actually decide, lets spend 4+ billion$ (minimum) on a new rocket. And that is years away at best. And from that point on you would expect it to take minim 6 years, more likely 10 years. Anybody that expect anything Ariane 7 like before 2035 is hopelessly optimistic. Not unless there is a major political shift. > Given the financial limitations ESA is actually quite capable. No its not. Ariane 6 development has cost more then the development of Falcon 9 + Falcon Heavy. And that's if you do not count development of Vinci, if you do not count most development of the static boosters and so on. You can say 'we are so poor' and then spend 5-6 billion $ on a rocket that is not competitive with Falcon 9 as it existed in 2015 and then spend another couple billion $ on giving subsidies to all the users of Ariane 6. Funding isn't the problem, efficiency and good choices is.

JumpCrisscross 6mo ago

> looks like the next generation will be reusable To the extent original Falcon 9 and earlier Chinese rockets were. It will be obsolete on release.

panick21_ 6mo ago

Sure nebulus 'next generation' is going to be reusable. But it cost at least 5 billion $ to build Ariane 5. And it took 10 years. And as of yet, we are nowhere remotly close to even get the political process started for a next geneation rocket. There are some research project and research, but it's not close. As for startups, none of them have even a working small vehicle. And small launch is a horrible buissness model that basically every company runs away from as fast away as they can burn investor money. Most go bust. Euroean startups are 10 years late and fight in a very small markets with lots of competition.

nickserv 6mo ago
Ariane 6 started operations less than a year ago, and already development is under way for the next generation. Funding is partly coming from the EU, so the political process has very much started. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_Next https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_Next I'm not disputing the fact that the EU is behind the US and China, but again the EU budget is way below. Given the financial limitations ESA is actually quite capable.
- panick21_ 6mo ago
  Before Ariane 6 there were also many already existing programs that were independent. Ariane 6 still needed a very specific coming together politically and vote for development. So yes, there is research going on, and certain program to develop components. But that is a very long way away from an actual concrete proposal to develop a real new rocket. The Vinci engine for example started in the 90s and only flew first time with Ariane 6. So you could have said in 2002 'Ariane 6' is in development. The question is when do the politicians get together and actually decide, lets spend 4+ billion$ (minimum) on a new rocket. And that is years away at best. And from that point on you would expect it to take minim 6 years, more likely 10 years. Anybody that expect anything Ariane 7 like before 2035 is hopelessly optimistic. Not unless there is a major political shift. > Given the financial limitations ESA is actually quite capable. No its not. Ariane 6 development has cost more then the development of Falcon 9 + Falcon Heavy. And that's if you do not count development of Vinci, if you do not count most development of the static boosters and so on. You can say 'we are so poor' and then spend 5-6 billion $ on a rocket that is not competitive with Falcon 9 as it existed in 2015 and then spend another couple billion $ on giving subsidies to all the users of Ariane 6. Funding isn't the problem, efficiency and good choices is.