4 ms·

$200 oil isn't as crazy as it sounds

18 points by dabinat 7mo ago

aaron695 7mo ago
[dead]
atlimar 7mo ago
seeing the source url, I feel this can largely be dismissed as a billionaire class owned publication steering the public discourse
- casper14 7mo ago
  So you're saying it's a news outlet?
  - atlimar 7mo ago
    you certainly have a point, though there are organizations with more journalistic integrity and freedom and a different ownership structure. But maybe not in the US any more.
9rx 7mo ago
> If oil reaches $200, it would damage the global economy. What supports $200 oil, then?
- justonceokay 7mo ago
  The 5 trillionaires that will still be able to afford it.
  - 9rx 7mo ago
    The 5 trillionaires can also afford $10,000 oil. Why would they pay $200 when they could pay $150?
- ericmcer 7mo ago
  Everything? Price of oil is tied to the price of every single thing you buy. Unless you go off grid and grow your own food you are supporting the price of oil.
  - 9rx 7mo ago
    Exactly. If you keep buying those things then the world economy will remain strong. Economies are damaged only when people stop buying things. So, again, if the world economy is damaged what supports $200 oil?
    - bigbadfeline 7mo ago
      > So, again, if the world economy is damaged what supports $200 oil? Good'ol money printing. > If you keep buying those things then the world economy will remain strong. Economies are damaged only when people stop buying things. Boring stuff like stagflation takes care of that.
      - 9rx 7mo ago
        > Good'ol money printing. Okay, so not really $200, except maybe nominally which doesn't mean much today. Per the discussion, what supports $200 oil in real dollars?
        bigbadfeline 7mo ago
        > Okay, so not really $200, except maybe nominally which doesn't mean much today. Well, it is real $200 - nobody said price inflation would lead to wage inflation, and it wouldn't. > what supports $200 oil in real dollars The only real "real" is the standard of living - when it drops with inflation, comparisons to yesteryear's melted snow don't really matter.
        9rx 7mo ago
        > Well, it is real $200 Okay, but then what supports the nominal $300 or whatever value it is after inflation has also been accounted for? We haven't even figured out how a nominal $200 is supported and now you're talking even larger nominal numbers, given the assumption of inflation. > The only real "real" is the standard of living Maybe as an individual, but that has little relevance to a macro discussion.
tim-tday 7mo ago
For every 6 months the strait of Hormuz remains closed the price of oil will double. This will become insane and untenable somewhere around 1.75 cycles

18 points by dabinat 7mo ago

[dead]

seeing the source url, I feel this can largely be dismissed as a billionaire class owned publication steering the public discourse

casper14 7mo ago
So you're saying it's a news outlet?
- atlimar 7mo ago
  you certainly have a point, though there are organizations with more journalistic integrity and freedom and a different ownership structure. But maybe not in the US any more.

9rx 7mo ago

> If oil reaches $200, it would damage the global economy. What supports $200 oil, then?

justonceokay 7mo ago
The 5 trillionaires that will still be able to afford it.
- 9rx 7mo ago
  The 5 trillionaires can also afford $10,000 oil. Why would they pay $200 when they could pay $150?
ericmcer 7mo ago
Everything? Price of oil is tied to the price of every single thing you buy. Unless you go off grid and grow your own food you are supporting the price of oil.
- 9rx 7mo ago
  Exactly. If you keep buying those things then the world economy will remain strong. Economies are damaged only when people stop buying things. So, again, if the world economy is damaged what supports $200 oil?
  - bigbadfeline 7mo ago
    > So, again, if the world economy is damaged what supports $200 oil? Good'ol money printing. > If you keep buying those things then the world economy will remain strong. Economies are damaged only when people stop buying things. Boring stuff like stagflation takes care of that.
    - 9rx 7mo ago
      > Good'ol money printing. Okay, so not really $200, except maybe nominally which doesn't mean much today. Per the discussion, what supports $200 oil in real dollars?
      - bigbadfeline 7mo ago
        > Okay, so not really $200, except maybe nominally which doesn't mean much today. Well, it is real $200 - nobody said price inflation would lead to wage inflation, and it wouldn't. > what supports $200 oil in real dollars The only real "real" is the standard of living - when it drops with inflation, comparisons to yesteryear's melted snow don't really matter.
        9rx 7mo ago
        > Well, it is real $200 Okay, but then what supports the nominal $300 or whatever value it is after inflation has also been accounted for? We haven't even figured out how a nominal $200 is supported and now you're talking even larger nominal numbers, given the assumption of inflation. > The only real "real" is the standard of living Maybe as an individual, but that has little relevance to a macro discussion.

tim-tday 7mo ago

For every 6 months the strait of Hormuz remains closed the price of oil will double. This will become insane and untenable somewhere around 1.75 cycles