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No, it doesn't. Some polls ask about enthusiasm right up until election day. Again, this is not about unskewing. This is about data as it was actually reporte

No, it doesn't. Some polls ask about enthusiasm right up until election day. Again, this is not about unskewing. This is about data as it was actually reported directly on the page. Here's one of the polls directly referenced in the link I included in previous post. NPR Poll Oct 23-25, 2012. Just before the election. http://media.npr.org/documents/2012/oct/NPROctpoll.pdf http://media.npr.org/documents/2012/oct/NPROctpoll.pdf There's a 10 point scale that gives a 10 percent difference in enthusiasm to Republicans at the "10" level. Of course that advantage vanishes if you include "8-10", which could be the sort of mistake Romney's internal pollsters made. The poll only includes Likely Voters. So there was data in public polls just before the election reflecting an enthusiasm advantage for Republicans. To say there wasn't is simply wrong.

ajross 14y ago
I'm just at a loss. The poll told you how many voters it thought would appear, based on factors including internal modelling and the enthusiasm quesiton. And your argument is that you should throw the aggregate data out based on that one number, that they already included? That's insane; it's quite literally cherry picking. And, of course, it's just flat wrong. That you would defend this behavior is just beyond me. It was a mistake, it wasn't ever a reasonable interpretation of the data, and plenty of smart people said so at the time.
- waterlesscloud 14y ago
  The enthusiasm is a measure among the reported data. Not among the survey sample. The data was culled for likely voters, then the enthusiasm spread was among those that survived the cut. At the bottom of each page it says the results are all from the weighted sample. The concept here is that "likely" is a continuum, and the Republicans had an advantage at the extreme upper end of it. EDIT- Adding a note and then moving on from this. I understand you're saying the enthusiasm is baked into the final preference percentages, but that's not the case.

ajross 14y ago

I'm just at a loss. The poll told you how many voters it thought would appear, based on factors including internal modelling and the enthusiasm quesiton. And your argument is that you should throw the aggregate data out based on that one number, that they already included? That's insane; it's quite literally cherry picking. And, of course, it's just flat wrong. That you would defend this behavior is just beyond me. It was a mistake, it wasn't ever a reasonable interpretation of the data, and plenty of smart people said so at the time.

waterlesscloud 14y ago
The enthusiasm is a measure among the reported data. Not among the survey sample. The data was culled for likely voters, then the enthusiasm spread was among those that survived the cut. At the bottom of each page it says the results are all from the weighted sample. The concept here is that "likely" is a continuum, and the Republicans had an advantage at the extreme upper end of it. EDIT- Adding a note and then moving on from this. I understand you're saying the enthusiasm is baked into the final preference percentages, but that's not the case.