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If you're thinking of passenger service, perhaps it is a bit unattractive in the short term. No good launching and landing spots. But for military use - think

by bdamm 6mo ago

If you're thinking of passenger service, perhaps it is a bit unattractive in the short term. No good launching and landing spots. But for military use - think logistics. Rapid delivery of equipment to unusual places. This applies to civilian purposes as well. All kinds of use-cases for speeding up cargo. The entire economics of Starship and rapid reusability was presented at the beginning of the Starbase work, way back when Hoppy was a thing. He's been sticking to the plan since then. You might want it to be fiction, but he's been very good at figuring out business plans to leverage his ultimate goals.

coldtea 6mo ago
>You might want it to be fiction, but he's been very good at figuring out business plans to leverage his ultimate goals. Not very good on delivering tech though, which is what makes it more fiction than not.
- JonChesterfield 6mo ago
  Who makes the bar for "good at delivering tech" if the guy pushing spacex, starlink and tesla simultaneously doesn't reach it?
  - coldtea 6mo ago
    Many promises that never materialized or resulted in mediocre or bad products, from the Mars mission to the Hyperloop, and from Teslas dismal software and often promised, never materializing fully autonomous drive to the Cybertruck. Let's not go into the robot vapourware either...
    - gibolt 6mo ago
      Hyperloop is the only thing you listed that is accurate, although it was only a whitepaper + competition. It was open for others to pursue. Tesla easily has the best vehicle software + OTA and has since the S in 2012. It still feels better than most new vehicles. You can buy a Tesla (including Cybertruck) today that will do 95+% of drives with 0 intervention. It may not be 100% autonomous yet, but there isn't anything obvious limiting the last step. The robots exist but are still being developed. Within 5 years, it is hard to imagine them not becoming super valuable within factory settings.
      - coldtea 6mo ago
        >Tesla easily has the best vehicle software + OTA and has since the S in 2012 Sure: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jul/05/the-vehicle-suddenly-accelerated-with-our-baby-in-it-the-terrifying-truth-about-why-teslas-cars-keep-crashing https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jul/05/the-vehic... https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-drivers-are-paying-big-bucks-to-test-flawed-self-driving-software/ https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-drivers-are-paying-big-buc... https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/tesla-employees-shared-horror-stories-behind-its-illusive-product https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/tesla-employees-shared-... https://doctorow.medium.com/https-pluralistic-net-2025-04-15-musklemons-more-like-edison-amirite-431fcfc25723 https://doctorow.medium.com/https-pluralistic-net-2025-04-15... https://www.torquenews.com/17998/after-software-update-left-his-tesla-model-y-completely-dead-owner-told-youll-need-new https://www.torquenews.com/17998/after-software-update-left-... https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2022/10/tesla-autopilot-crash-public-transit/ https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2022/10/tesla-autopi... the cases are endless... >The robots exist but are still being developed. Within 5 years, it is hard to imagine them not becoming super valuable within factory settings. Yeah, let's check back in 5 years. https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaSupport/comments/1poig9a/nightmare_software_update_a_fired_tesla_employee/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaSupport/comments/1poig9a/night... https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/when-a-software-update-breaks-safety-my-tesla-model-3-experience.352236/ https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/when-a-software-upda...
        bdamm 6mo ago
        If you think Tesla is bad, you should look into GM or Ford. There have been many accusations about sudden accelleration, but except for the Cybertruck's pedal-cover slide, there has never been a proven case of a Tesla autonomously accellerating into a crash. But these accusations come a lot, because people are always wanting to shift the blame away from themselves and the automaker seems like an easy target.
    - NetMageSCW 6mo ago
      And yet SpaceX flies the most reliable rocket in history more frequently than anyone in the world has ever flown, takes astronauts to the ISS regularly, and does so for far less then any competition. Tesla changed the automobile from ICE to BEV in a way people wanted to buy and was practical as a replacement for any use, and created a charging standard so successful every US car company is switching to. And the Mars missions so far are just delayed.
      - coldtea 6mo ago
        >And yet SpaceX flies the most reliable rocket in history more frequently than anyone in the world has ever flown, takes astronauts to the ISS regularly, and does so for far less then any competition Yeah, after almost half a century, they passed 70s-era Soyuz numbers. >Tesla changed the automobile from ICE to BEV in a way people wanted to buy and was practical as a replacement for any use The magic of EV subsidies (for both Tesla and buyers). >And the Mars missions so far are just delayed. The magic of that statement is that it can be true at any point in the future!
bluescrn 6mo ago
> But for military use - think logistics. Rapid delivery of equipment to unusual places. Surely it's too fragile/explodey for military use - the whole thing's a very volatile fuel tank - could it survive being shot at, even a single high-powered rifle bullet (during landing, or even post-landing) without going boom?
- NetMageSCW 6mo ago
  It doesn’t have to be able to deliver in a combat zone to be able to deliver halfway around the world close to a combat zone. Or do you think the Hercules is worthless because it isn’t armored and doesn’t have weapons?

by bdamm 6mo ago

coldtea 6mo ago

>You might want it to be fiction, but he's been very good at figuring out business plans to leverage his ultimate goals. Not very good on delivering tech though, which is what makes it more fiction than not.

JonChesterfield 6mo ago
Who makes the bar for "good at delivering tech" if the guy pushing spacex, starlink and tesla simultaneously doesn't reach it?
- coldtea 6mo ago
  Many promises that never materialized or resulted in mediocre or bad products, from the Mars mission to the Hyperloop, and from Teslas dismal software and often promised, never materializing fully autonomous drive to the Cybertruck. Let's not go into the robot vapourware either...
  - gibolt 6mo ago
    Hyperloop is the only thing you listed that is accurate, although it was only a whitepaper + competition. It was open for others to pursue. Tesla easily has the best vehicle software + OTA and has since the S in 2012. It still feels better than most new vehicles. You can buy a Tesla (including Cybertruck) today that will do 95+% of drives with 0 intervention. It may not be 100% autonomous yet, but there isn't anything obvious limiting the last step. The robots exist but are still being developed. Within 5 years, it is hard to imagine them not becoming super valuable within factory settings.
    - coldtea 6mo ago
      >Tesla easily has the best vehicle software + OTA and has since the S in 2012 Sure: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jul/05/the-vehicle-suddenly-accelerated-with-our-baby-in-it-the-terrifying-truth-about-why-teslas-cars-keep-crashing https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jul/05/the-vehic... https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-drivers-are-paying-big-bucks-to-test-flawed-self-driving-software/ https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-drivers-are-paying-big-buc... https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/tesla-employees-shared-horror-stories-behind-its-illusive-product https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/tesla-employees-shared-... https://doctorow.medium.com/https-pluralistic-net-2025-04-15-musklemons-more-like-edison-amirite-431fcfc25723 https://doctorow.medium.com/https-pluralistic-net-2025-04-15... https://www.torquenews.com/17998/after-software-update-left-his-tesla-model-y-completely-dead-owner-told-youll-need-new https://www.torquenews.com/17998/after-software-update-left-... https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2022/10/tesla-autopilot-crash-public-transit/ https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2022/10/tesla-autopi... the cases are endless... >The robots exist but are still being developed. Within 5 years, it is hard to imagine them not becoming super valuable within factory settings. Yeah, let's check back in 5 years. https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaSupport/comments/1poig9a/nightmare_software_update_a_fired_tesla_employee/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaSupport/comments/1poig9a/night... https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/when-a-software-update-breaks-safety-my-tesla-model-3-experience.352236/ https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/when-a-software-upda...
      - bdamm 6mo ago
        If you think Tesla is bad, you should look into GM or Ford. There have been many accusations about sudden accelleration, but except for the Cybertruck's pedal-cover slide, there has never been a proven case of a Tesla autonomously accellerating into a crash. But these accusations come a lot, because people are always wanting to shift the blame away from themselves and the automaker seems like an easy target.
  - NetMageSCW 6mo ago
    And yet SpaceX flies the most reliable rocket in history more frequently than anyone in the world has ever flown, takes astronauts to the ISS regularly, and does so for far less then any competition. Tesla changed the automobile from ICE to BEV in a way people wanted to buy and was practical as a replacement for any use, and created a charging standard so successful every US car company is switching to. And the Mars missions so far are just delayed.
    - coldtea 6mo ago
      >And yet SpaceX flies the most reliable rocket in history more frequently than anyone in the world has ever flown, takes astronauts to the ISS regularly, and does so for far less then any competition Yeah, after almost half a century, they passed 70s-era Soyuz numbers. >Tesla changed the automobile from ICE to BEV in a way people wanted to buy and was practical as a replacement for any use The magic of EV subsidies (for both Tesla and buyers). >And the Mars missions so far are just delayed. The magic of that statement is that it can be true at any point in the future!

bluescrn 6mo ago

> But for military use - think logistics. Rapid delivery of equipment to unusual places. Surely it's too fragile/explodey for military use - the whole thing's a very volatile fuel tank - could it survive being shot at, even a single high-powered rifle bullet (during landing, or even post-landing) without going boom?

NetMageSCW 6mo ago
It doesn’t have to be able to deliver in a combat zone to be able to deliver halfway around the world close to a combat zone. Or do you think the Hercules is worthless because it isn’t armored and doesn’t have weapons?