Canonical has the larger userbase, but their development work is pretty limited- basically, they do the Unity shell and their app-store. Most desktop related de

Canonical has the larger userbase, but their development work is pretty limited- basically, they do the Unity shell and their app-store. Most desktop related development (hardware support, DBus, core desktop libraries like PolicyKit, GTK+) happens inside Red Hat. If they want to offer better binary compatibility between releases... well they can't, because they don't employ those guys. If they want to support a new OpenGL release... well they can't, they don't employ those guys. Ubuntu is crazy popular, but people really underestimate the extent to which they are an epiphenomenon.