3 ms·

Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI

2 points by aanet 7mo ago

aanet 7mo ago
From economists at the Fed, and academia. Link to PDF: https://forecastingresearch.org/s/forecasting-the-economic-effects-of-ai.pdf https://forecastingresearch.org/s/forecasting-the-economic-e... Link to Tool: https://explore.forecastingresearch.org/participate/eeai https://explore.forecastingresearch.org/participate/eeai -
ggm 7mo ago
Displacement of labour does not typically lead to rapid re-deployment in existing fields, it tends to depress wages, and consumption. Absent a boom in construction and civil engineering, or some new approach to state funded interventions in public utility function, what exactly do the economists think will be the place all these new jobs come from? Displaced knowledge workers aren't going to restart American manufacturing. The skillset is different. The relocation burdens are immense. So, this idea of mobile workforce and re-engagement, it's depression-era thinking. I don't think we'll see that, I think we'll see Detroit, but kinda worse. Maybe more like rustbelt: people in place, stuck in over valued unsellable homes, subsisting into disease. A 10% drop in employment across the knowledge sector won't be met by a 10% rise in vacancy rates for knowledge sector workers. And, given the drop in salaries, and the drop in consumption, Who exactly do the economists think will be buying those goods and services? If you don't pay people how do they buy things? So I get the aggregates, but I ask: how are the aggregates being formed?
motbus3 7mo ago
A friend told me something curious about AI. The recent increase on talks of AI being sentient or having feelings is an excuse to not make a case against AI companies. At first I rejected the claim as being non sense, but it made sense... There will be no way of proving AGI is a thing or not with a machine capable of generating any text. But also it will make it seems it is unpredictable and uncontrollable and they will sell this as a pain of growth and they had not ways to know that this "conscious-like" machine would be able to do this. This humanisation campaign lead by Huang and others is the perfect excuse for technology laymen law man who will take for granted that a ML "neuron" is exactly a biological neuron, and that machines take decisions and actions based on will and not pure statistical computing.

2 points by aanet 7mo ago

aanet 7mo ago

From economists at the Fed, and academia. Link to PDF: https://forecastingresearch.org/s/forecasting-the-economic-effects-of-ai.pdf https://forecastingresearch.org/s/forecasting-the-economic-e... Link to Tool: https://explore.forecastingresearch.org/participate/eeai https://explore.forecastingresearch.org/participate/eeai -

ggm 7mo ago

Displacement of labour does not typically lead to rapid re-deployment in existing fields, it tends to depress wages, and consumption. Absent a boom in construction and civil engineering, or some new approach to state funded interventions in public utility function, what exactly do the economists think will be the place all these new jobs come from? Displaced knowledge workers aren't going to restart American manufacturing. The skillset is different. The relocation burdens are immense. So, this idea of mobile workforce and re-engagement, it's depression-era thinking. I don't think we'll see that, I think we'll see Detroit, but kinda worse. Maybe more like rustbelt: people in place, stuck in over valued unsellable homes, subsisting into disease. A 10% drop in employment across the knowledge sector won't be met by a 10% rise in vacancy rates for knowledge sector workers. And, given the drop in salaries, and the drop in consumption, Who exactly do the economists think will be buying those goods and services? If you don't pay people how do they buy things? So I get the aggregates, but I ask: how are the aggregates being formed?

motbus3 7mo ago

A friend told me something curious about AI. The recent increase on talks of AI being sentient or having feelings is an excuse to not make a case against AI companies. At first I rejected the claim as being non sense, but it made sense... There will be no way of proving AGI is a thing or not with a machine capable of generating any text. But also it will make it seems it is unpredictable and uncontrollable and they will sell this as a pain of growth and they had not ways to know that this "conscious-like" machine would be able to do this. This humanisation campaign lead by Huang and others is the perfect excuse for technology laymen law man who will take for granted that a ML "neuron" is exactly a biological neuron, and that machines take decisions and actions based on will and not pure statistical computing.