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Operation Spiderweb was not a power projection exercise though, it was an espionage mission. This is like arguing you don't need a military because you'll just

by XorNot 7mo ago

Operation Spiderweb was not a power projection exercise though, it was an espionage mission. This is like arguing you don't need a military because you'll just have 1 spy turn the enemies own weapons on them. Sure...its not that it can't work, but there's more then a few issues with the strategic plan.

jacquesm 7mo ago
Fair, it's not an aircraft carrier. But you can turn any container vessel into a cheap rough equivalent. Take the coastline, then maybe 30 km inland and see what installations you could reach. Pearl Harbor on a shoestring budget is a realistic threat now.
- cosmicgadget 7mo ago
  Would you mind listing the major functions of a carrier group and explain why a container ship full of drones is a "rough equivalent".
  - jacquesm 7mo ago
    Keeping the strait of Hormuz open would be one of those functions, wouldn't it? Oh, wait... Seriously, your question is borderline trolling, you know exactly which functions of a carrier group are and are not matched by drones flown from containers. The point is, in case it wasn't clear, that you can do a ton of destruction without necessarily opening yourself up to a counter attack, precisely the kind of advantage that parties that put carrier groups in distance places to project power tend to be looking for. The ability to destroy lots of stuff in a relatively short time without losing a lot of personnel or exposing yourself. And that capability is now to a large extent available to states that before would not have been able to do meaningful damage to coastal cities and coastal infrastructure (think refineries and large scale shipping ports). And you can't even be sure that whoever operates the vessel is in on it. It's not going to help you to stop China from invading Taiwan if they decide to. But it could put a very large dent in the economic capability of any country or bloc that came under a concerted attack. Also note that 'drone' is a pretty wide label that crosses over into what previously was territory reserved for cruise missiles and ICBMs for air power and on the water there are many developments as well. So if you have to hide your carrier group at stand-off distance for fear of seeing it sunk then it is not all that different from that container full of drones. You can destroy stuff, and that's about it. And long term that just makes more enemies, it doesn't really solve anything.
    - XorNot 7mo ago
      This is just making the very common categorization error here: you're equating low performance drones, implied to be about DJI sized, with the performance of an F-35. Now you're about to say "but I meant drones with better capability!" And they do exist: and they're no longer that cheap, nor compact because it turns out a drone with roughly the performance of an F-35 will need an airframe, engine and sensor suite...roughly as expensive as an F-35. And suddenly this is no longer a platform you can just crash into things. Nor will you be ordering them by the thousand. Nor do they fit in a cargo container.
      - jacquesm 7mo ago
        I've seen the range of drones that is available and they are very impressive, the variety is precisely what makes them so powerful: you can adapt mix and match to whatever mission profile you have in mind and there most likely will be something that you can use unmodified. And if the task requires it modifications can be done on very short notice. An F-35 is of course going to absolutely outclass any drone. But a hundred million (roughly) spent on drones is going to do more damage than that F-35 and is going to be more versatile. The second that F-35 lands it is going to be at risk from a (low cost) drone attack. And some aicraft aren't even safe in the sky anymore: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACjCP-Dt3GY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACjCP-Dt3GY Speaking of Aircraft Carriers, how is the Ford doing?
        XorNot 7mo ago
        Mix and match how? Your entire one-way arsenal is sitting in cargo containers off the coast of an enemy nation by definition within drone range. At this point you've built a very slow, very short ranged undefended arsenal ship. Your proposal is to put a large supply of systems closer to enemy forces and the you're implying that somehow this wouldn't be vulnerable to being attacked while landed?
        jacquesm 7mo ago
        Check out the 'Toloka' family for one sample of what drones are like. They've been used in strikes already.

by XorNot 7mo ago

jacquesm 7mo ago

Fair, it's not an aircraft carrier. But you can turn any container vessel into a cheap rough equivalent. Take the coastline, then maybe 30 km inland and see what installations you could reach. Pearl Harbor on a shoestring budget is a realistic threat now.

cosmicgadget 7mo ago
Would you mind listing the major functions of a carrier group and explain why a container ship full of drones is a "rough equivalent".
- jacquesm 7mo ago
  Keeping the strait of Hormuz open would be one of those functions, wouldn't it? Oh, wait... Seriously, your question is borderline trolling, you know exactly which functions of a carrier group are and are not matched by drones flown from containers. The point is, in case it wasn't clear, that you can do a ton of destruction without necessarily opening yourself up to a counter attack, precisely the kind of advantage that parties that put carrier groups in distance places to project power tend to be looking for. The ability to destroy lots of stuff in a relatively short time without losing a lot of personnel or exposing yourself. And that capability is now to a large extent available to states that before would not have been able to do meaningful damage to coastal cities and coastal infrastructure (think refineries and large scale shipping ports). And you can't even be sure that whoever operates the vessel is in on it. It's not going to help you to stop China from invading Taiwan if they decide to. But it could put a very large dent in the economic capability of any country or bloc that came under a concerted attack. Also note that 'drone' is a pretty wide label that crosses over into what previously was territory reserved for cruise missiles and ICBMs for air power and on the water there are many developments as well. So if you have to hide your carrier group at stand-off distance for fear of seeing it sunk then it is not all that different from that container full of drones. You can destroy stuff, and that's about it. And long term that just makes more enemies, it doesn't really solve anything.
  - XorNot 7mo ago
    This is just making the very common categorization error here: you're equating low performance drones, implied to be about DJI sized, with the performance of an F-35. Now you're about to say "but I meant drones with better capability!" And they do exist: and they're no longer that cheap, nor compact because it turns out a drone with roughly the performance of an F-35 will need an airframe, engine and sensor suite...roughly as expensive as an F-35. And suddenly this is no longer a platform you can just crash into things. Nor will you be ordering them by the thousand. Nor do they fit in a cargo container.
    - jacquesm 7mo ago
      I've seen the range of drones that is available and they are very impressive, the variety is precisely what makes them so powerful: you can adapt mix and match to whatever mission profile you have in mind and there most likely will be something that you can use unmodified. And if the task requires it modifications can be done on very short notice. An F-35 is of course going to absolutely outclass any drone. But a hundred million (roughly) spent on drones is going to do more damage than that F-35 and is going to be more versatile. The second that F-35 lands it is going to be at risk from a (low cost) drone attack. And some aicraft aren't even safe in the sky anymore: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACjCP-Dt3GY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACjCP-Dt3GY Speaking of Aircraft Carriers, how is the Ford doing?
      - XorNot 7mo ago
        Mix and match how? Your entire one-way arsenal is sitting in cargo containers off the coast of an enemy nation by definition within drone range. At this point you've built a very slow, very short ranged undefended arsenal ship. Your proposal is to put a large supply of systems closer to enemy forces and the you're implying that somehow this wouldn't be vulnerable to being attacked while landed?
        jacquesm 7mo ago
        Check out the 'Toloka' family for one sample of what drones are like. They've been used in strikes already.