7 ms·
What you are saying is all super reasonable but I don't think any of this will be happening. The prices literally never come down. When there is an inkling that
by bdangubic 7mo ago
What you are saying is all super reasonable but I don't think any of this will be happening. The prices literally never come down. When there is an inkling that they might the "Big Gov" (maybe it will be this administration, maybe it will be next) will 100% prop it up, it'll be Kamala's $25k or it'll be another thing but housing is deeply tied into the US Economy and the government (on purpose, not like DJT doing what he's doing... lol) just won't let any of this happen - the prices are not coming down significantly and demand is not going to cool - on the whole.
I live in DC area and since the beginning of this 2nd DJT term we've have DOGE and significant layoffs affecting Northern Virginia and AI-related layoffs and issues with construction (like you I am stoked for anything that prevents people exploitation) etc and yet prices have gone up, most houses in my area (around the Dulles airport) sell within a week. Deep inside VA, my sister-in-law lives in more rural area - same thing, housing prices are going up, everything is selling in reasonable amount of time considering the conditions and interest rates... additionally if we start employing more of "our" people to work there will be a lot more housing demand - not less, no?
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- toomuchtodo 7mo agohttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-fhfa-house-price-growth-continues-to-decelerate-in-january https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-fhfa-house-price-growth-c... Note the trend. Just as the Fed drains M2 with quantitative tightening, time is needed to drain inflated residential real estate equity, grounded in mortgage rates (priced off of treasuries) and what wages can support.
- bdangubic 7mo agoWould you agree though that this is very regional in nature? We have majority of regions in the United States seeing housing price increases even with everything that has been going on (especially mortgage rates, weak job market...)
- toomuchtodo 7mo agoYes, all real estate is local.
- bdangubic 7mo agoyes but this isn’t, no!? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
- toomuchtodo 7mo agoNational trends vs local trends. If you'd like, I can buy you an hour of time with an economist subject matter expert on this if you'd like to dive deeper on the nuance.
- bdangubic 7mo agosorry for late reply, in HN purgatory with the rate limiting cause months ago I had an "argument" with someone :) hehehehe not necessary. finding it interesting to see statement that real estate is local in nature alongside national trends. in some regions real estate will naturally go down due to myriad of reasons but on the whole the more populous regions will keep the real estate market afloat and thriving. we can bookmark this and re-visit in a year/two/... but I'd put $1k into charity of your choice that we will 100% not see any significant price reductions or any significant housing issues in USA (this is gamble for me considering that our current leaders are generally clueless about everything and God only knows who will lead this country in the upcoming years :) ).