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> If the US had pulled out as Iran demanded and said "not our problem" you'd now have an Iran full-on supporting Russia, providing missiles, drones, and more, c

> If the US had pulled out as Iran demanded and said "not our problem" you'd now have an Iran full-on supporting Russia, providing missiles, drones, and more, control over 20% of the world's oil supply where they can exact tolls, turn Gulf States into vassals (for those who can't get a nuke), and would continue to directly pay, arm, and supply groups throughout the Middle East and elsewhere to destabilize other countries and kill people including in Israel, Lebanon, Yemen, and more. You're describing the current situation. The tolls are new, as a response to the war! They've been supplying Russia with drones for years! They've been funding groups throughout the Middle East for decades!

ericmay 7mo ago
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- ceejayoz 7mo ago
  > They very well may have been planning to do so in the next 5 or so years. Our accelerating that doesn't seem like a big win so far. > They could at a whim, just say "give us X or we close the straight". They've been able to do that for decades. > but maybe Iran shouldn't be doing these things Few disagree. But you're falling for https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politician%27s_syllogism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politician%27s_syllogism.
  - ericmay 7mo ago
    > Our accelerating that doesn't seem like a big win so far. Maybe this can help. It's 2025 and Iran has 1,000 missiles (just random rough numbers). It's 2030, and Iran now has 5,000 missiles and bought a bunch of hypersonic missiles from China. Sure, we can just "not accelerate" this, but then we're not going to do anything about it in 2030 because nobody is going to accept being on the receiving end of so much destruction. > They've been able to do that for decades. Not quite - they've had varying levels of capability here. Until recently they haven't had the missile and drone stockpile that they have today and have been building.

ericmay 7mo ago

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ceejayoz 7mo ago
> They very well may have been planning to do so in the next 5 or so years. Our accelerating that doesn't seem like a big win so far. > They could at a whim, just say "give us X or we close the straight". They've been able to do that for decades. > but maybe Iran shouldn't be doing these things Few disagree. But you're falling for https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politician%27s_syllogism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politician%27s_syllogism.
- ericmay 7mo ago
  > Our accelerating that doesn't seem like a big win so far. Maybe this can help. It's 2025 and Iran has 1,000 missiles (just random rough numbers). It's 2030, and Iran now has 5,000 missiles and bought a bunch of hypersonic missiles from China. Sure, we can just "not accelerate" this, but then we're not going to do anything about it in 2030 because nobody is going to accept being on the receiving end of so much destruction. > They've been able to do that for decades. Not quite - they've had varying levels of capability here. Until recently they haven't had the missile and drone stockpile that they have today and have been building.