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If the odds were only 1% , how did 14 people die ? You’re not including the lives in your risk assessment . There were 135 events and 14 people died . If you
by tonymet 7mo ago
If the odds were only 1% , how did 14 people die ?
You’re not including the lives in your risk assessment .
There were 135 events and 14 people died .
If you were asked to join mission 136 would you say yes or no?
Which risk profile fits: 1% fatality or 10%?
- wat10000 7mo agoBy that logic, the fatality rate in NYC skyscrapers on 9/11 was something like 1500%, since there were <200 skyscrapers and ~2,700 people died. It doesn't make any sense. Your numerator and denominator need to use the same units. The rate of fatal accidents was 2/135. The rate of crew fatalities was 14/355. The rate for crew-flight fatalities (separately counting multiple flights by the same person) was 14/852. If you were evaluating your risk for another flight, the number of crew aboard doesn't affect the risk and it's pretty reasonable to assume that an accident results in either a 0% or 100% fatality rate, so the relevant figure would be the fatal accident rate of 2/135. If your flight follows that profile then that's your probability of dying in an accident.
- tonymet 7mo agoYou still haven't explained how so many died and why the program ended.
- wat10000 7mo agoI didn't and don't intend to. I was just addressing your incorrect figures.
- tonymet 7mo agoHow can your model be correct when it doesn’t explain the world ?
- wat10000 7mo agoProbabilities don't explain why they are what they are. If you flip a coin a bunch of times and find that it lands on heads 52% of the time, that doesn't tell you anything about what's going on with that coin to bias it. It's not supposed to. That's a different field altogether.